Yes, Black had a chance to save the game on moves 45, 46, and 48. Her entire plan from 45 to 49 is wrong. She needed to bring her king and leave the rook uncommitted (in various positions) for as long as possible. See the analysis below (thanks to Stockfish 6 x64 in Deep Fritz GUI).
[Event "FIDE Women's World Chess Championship"]
[Site "Sochi RUS"]
[Date "2015.03.24"]
[Round "3.2"]
[White "Natalia Pogonina"]
[Black "Marie Sebag"]
[Result "1-0"]
[ECO "D46"]
[PlyCount "134"]
[EventDate "2015.03.17"]
[FEN ""]
1. d4 d5 2. c4 c6 3. Nf3 Nf6 4. Nc3 e6 5. e3 Nbd7 6. Qc2 Bd6 7. Bd3 O-O
8. O-O e5 9. cxd5 cxd5 10. e4 exd4 11. Nxd5 Nxd5 12. exd5 h6 13. Rd1 Nf6
14. h3 Nxd5 15. Bh7+ Kh8 16. Rxd4 Nf6 17. Bf4 Nxh7 18. Bxd6 Re8 19. Qb3
Kg8 20. Ne5 Qf6 21. Rad1 Ng5 22. h4 Ne6 23. Re4 Nf4 24. Qa4 b5 25. Qxb5
Be6 26. Qa4 Ng6 27. Nxg6 Qxg6 28. Rde1 Red8 29. Be5 Rac8 30. a3 Kh7 31.
Bc3 Bd7 32. Qxa7 Bc6 33. h5 Qg5 34. Qxf7 Bxe4 35. Rxe4 Rd1+ 36. Kh2 Rc5
37. Qg6+ Qxg6 38. hxg6+ Kxg6 39. Re7 Rh5+ 40. Kg3 Rg5+ 41. Kf3 Rd3+ 42.
Ke2 Rxc3 43. bxc3 Rxg2 44. Re3 Rh2 45. c4 Rh4 (45... Kf7 46. Rf3+ (46.
c5 Rh4 (46... Rh5) 47. Kd3 (47. Kd2 Ra4 48. c6 ( 48. Kc2 Ra5 49. c6 Ra8
50. Kb3 Rc8 51. a4 Rxc6 52. a5 Rf6 53. Re4 Rxf2 54. a6 Rd2 55. a7 Rd8
56. Rg4 Ra8 57. Ra4 Ke6 {0.00/19}) 48... Ra8 49. Rd3 Ke6 50. Rd7 g5
51. Rh7 Kd6 52. Rxh6+ Kc7 53. Rh3 Kxc6 54. Rd3 Ra4 55. Ke3 Kc5 56. Ke2
Re4+ 57. Kf1 Ra4 {0.60/19}) (47. Rc3 Ke7 48. c6 (48. Rg3 g5 49. Rd3
Ra4 50. Rd6 Rxa3 51. Rxh6 g4 52. f3 Rxf3 53. Rg6 Rc3 54. Rxg4 Rxc5 55.
Rg6 Rc3 56. Rb6 Ra3 57. Rc6 Rg3 {0.00/0}) 48... Kd8 49. Rd3+ Kc8 50.
Rd6 Rg4 51. Rd7 g5 52. Rh7 Re4+ 53. Kd1 Re6 54. f3 Rxc6 55. a4 Rf6 56.
a5 Rxf3 57. Rxh6 Ra3 {0.00/ 19}) 47... Rf4 (47... Ra4 48. Kc2 (48.
Re5 Rxa3+ 49. Kc4 Kf6 50. Re8 Kf7 51. Re2 h5 52. c6 Ra1 53. Kc5 h4 54.
f3 h3 55. f4 Rc1+ 56. Kd5 Kf6 57. Rh2 Rc3 {0. 00/19}) 48... h5 49. Kb3
Ra6 50. Kb4 Re6 51. Rh3 g6 52. a4 Ke7 53. Kb5 Kd7 54. Rd3+ Kc8 55. a5
Re2 56. Rd6 g5 57. f3 Kc7 {1.56/19}) 48. Re2 (48. Re1 Rf3+ 49. Kc4 Rxf2
50. a4 h5 51. Kb3 Rf5 52. Kb4 Rf2 53. a5 Rb2+ 54. Kc4 Rc2+ 55. Kb5 Rb2+
56. Kc6 Ra2 57. Kb6 Rb2+ {0.67/19}) (48. a4 Rxa4 49. Re2 h5 50. f3
h4 51. c6 h3 52. f4 Ra6 53. Rc2 Ra8 54. f5 Kf6 55. c7 Rc8 56. Ke4 h2 57.
Rxh2 Rxc7 {0.00/19}) 48... h5 49. c6 Ra4 50. c7 Ra8 51. Rc2 Rc8 52.
Ke4 Ke6 53. Kf4 g6 54. Kg5 Kd7 55. Kxg6 h4 56. Kg5 h3 57. Rc3 Rh8
{1.37/19}) (46. a4 Rh5 47. Ra3 (47. Kd2 Rf5 48. Kc3 (48. Ra3 Ke7 49. f3
Kd6 50. a5 Rf7 51. Rd3+ Kc5 52. Kc3 Rf5 53. a6 Rf7 54. f4 Rxf4 55. a7
Rf8 56. Rd1 Ra8 57. Rd7 g6 {0.00/ 19}) 48... Rxf2 49. c5 g5 50. Kb3
Rf6 51. Kc4 g4 52. a5 h5 53. Kb5 h4 54. c6 Rh6 55. c7 Rh8 56. Rd3 Rc8
57. Rd4 Rxc7 {0.00/19}) (47. Rf3+ Ke6 48. Rg3 ( 48. Rb3 Ra5 49. Rb6+
Kf7 50. Rb4 h5 51. Kd3 h4 52. Ke4 g5 53. Rb7+ Ke6 54. Rb6+ Ke7 55. Rb7+
Ke6 56. Rb6+ Ke7 57. Rh6 Rxa4 {0.00/19}) 48... Kf6 49. Ra3 Ra5 50.
Kd3 Ke7 51. Kc3 Rf5 52. Ra2 Kd6 53. Kb4 Rf7 54. Rd2+ Kc6 55. a5 Rb7+ 56.
Kc3 Ra7 57. Ra2 Kc5 {0.34/19}) 47... Ra5 48. Kd2 (48. Kd3 Ke7 49. Kc3
Rf5 50. Ra2 Kd6 51. Kb4 Rf7 52. a5 Rb7+ 53. Kc3 Kc5 54. a6 Ra7 55. f4
Kb6 56. Kd4 Rxa6 57. Rg2 Ra7 {0.29/19}) 48... Ke6 {0.50/29} 49.
Kc3 Kd6 50. Kb4 Ra8 51. c5+ Kc6 52. Re3 h5 53. Re6+ Kd5 54. Rd6+ Ke5 55.
Rd1 h4 56. c6 h3 57. Kb5 Rb8+ {2.55/19}) (46. Rb3 Rh4 47. Rb4 (47.
Rc3 Rh1 48. Ke3 (48. Kd3 g5 49. Ke4 Ke6 50. a4 Kd6 51. a5 Kc5 52. Rf3
Ra1 53. Rf6 Ra2 54. f3 Kxc4 55. Rxh6 Rxa5 56. f4 gxf4 57. Kxf4 Ra8
{0.00/0}) 48... Ke7 49. Kd4 Kd6 50. Rf3 Rd1+ 51. Rd3 Ra1 52. Rg3 Rd1+
53. Kc3 Rc1+ 54. Kd3 Rd1+ 55. Kc2 Rd4 56. Kc3 Kc5 57. Rxg7 Rxc4+
{0.24/19}) (47. Rf3+) 47... Rh3 48. f3 (48. Rb7+ Kf6 49. f3 Rh1 50. Ke3
Ra1 51. Ra7 h5 52. Ra6+ Ke7 53. Kf4 Rc1 54. Rc6 Kd7 55. Rc5 Kd6 56. Rxh5
Rxc4+ 57. Ke3 Rc3+ {0.00/19}) 48... h5 49. a4 Rh2+ 50. Kd3 Ra2 51.
c5 Ke6 52. Kc4 g5 53. Kb5 h4 54. c6 Rc2 55. Rb1 Kd6 56. Rd1+ Kc7 57.
Rd7+ Kc8 {0. 93/19}) (46. Re5 Rh3 47. f3 (47. a4 Rc3 48. Rc5 (48. c5
Ra3 49. f3 Rxa4 50. Kd3 Ra1 51. Kc4 Kf6 52. Re8 Rc1+ 53. Kd4 h5
{0.00/19} 54. Rf8+ Ke6 55. Re8+ Kf6 56. Rf8+ Ke6 57. Re8+ Kf6 {0.00/19})
48... Ke6 49. a5 Kd6 50. Kd2 Rf3 51. Rd5+ Ke6 52. Rd8 Rf5 53. a6 Rxf2+
54. Kc3 Ra2 55. Ra8 Kd6 56. Kd3 Kc6 57. a7 h5 {0. 00/19}) (47. Ra5
Rc3 48. Ra7+ (48. a4 Rxc4 49. Ra7+ Kf6 50. a5 Ra4 51. a6 Ke5 52. Ra8 Kd5
53. a7 Kc6 54. Rc8+ Kb7 55. Rg8 Kxa7 56. Rxg7+ Kb6 57. f3 Kc6 {
0.00/19}) 48... Kf6 49. a4 Rxc4 50. a5 Ra4 51. a6 Ke5 52. Ra8 Kd5 53. a7
Kc6 54. Rc8+ Kb7 55. Rg8 Kxa7 56. Rxg7+ Kb6 57. f3 Kc6 {0.00/19})
47... Kf6 48. Re3 (48. Re8 Rh1 49. a4 Ra1 50. Ra8 h5 51. f4 Ra3 52. c5
Ke6 53. Re8+ Kd5 54. Re5+ Kc6 55. Rxh5 Rxa4 56. Kf3 Rc4 57. Kg4 Rxc5
{0.04/19}) 48... h5 49. c5 Rh2+ 50. Kd1 Rb2 51. c6 Rb8 52. a4 Rc8 53.
Rc3 Ke6 54. Rc5 g6 55. a5 Kd6 56. Rg5 Rg8 57. Ke2 Re8+ {0.18/19})
(46. Rc3 Rh1 47. c5 (47. Ke3 g5 48. Kd4 ( 48. c5) 48... h5 49. Ke5 g4
50. c5 Ke7 51. Kf4 Kd7 52. f3 Rh3 53. a4 Kc6 54. a5 Rxf3+ 55. Rxf3 gxf3
56. Kxf3 Kb5 57. a6 Kxa6 {0.00/1}) (47. f4 Ke6 48. Re3+ (48. Kf2 Kd6
49. a4 Ra1 50. Rg3 g5 51. fxg5 hxg5 52. Rxg5 Rxa4 53. c5+ Kc6 54. Ke3
Rc4 55. Rg1 Kxc5 56. Ra1 Kd6 57. Kd3 Rg4 {0.00/0}) 48... Kf5 49. Rc3
Ke6 50. Kf2 Kd6 51. Rg3 g5 52. Rd3+ Ke6 53. a4 Ra1 54. fxg5 hxg5 55. c5
Rxa4 56. Rg3 g4 57. Re3+ Kd5 {0.00/19}) 47... Ke7 48. Rg3 (48. Rb3)
48... g5 49. a4 Ra1 50. Rh3 Rxa4 51. Rxh6 g4 52. Kf1 Rc4 53. Rh7+ Kd8
54. f3 gxf3 55. Rh2 Rxc5 56. Rh7 Rd5 57. Kf2 Rf5 {0.00/0}) 46... Ke6
47. Rg3 (47. a4 Rh5 48. Re3+ (48. Rg3 Ra5 49. Rxg7 Rxa4 50. Rg4 Kf5 51.
Rh4 Kg5 52. Re4 h5 53. Kf3 Kf5 54. Rd4 Ra3+ 55. Ke2 Rc3 56. f3 Kg5 57.
Kd2 Rxf3 {0.00/19}) 48... Kd6 49. Rg3 Ra5 50. Rxg7 Rxa4 51. Kd3 Ra3+
52. Ke4 Rc3 53. Rg6+ Kd7 54. Kd5 Rf3 55. Rg7+ Kc8 56. Rg2 Kd7 57. Ke4
Rc3 {0.06/19}) (47. Rf8 Rh3 48. f3 (48. a4 Ra3 49. Ra8 Kd6 50. a5
Kc5 51. a6 Kb6 52. Rb8+ Kc5 53. Rc8+ Kb6 54. Rg8 Rxa6 55. Rxg7 Kc5 56.
f4 Kxc4 57. f5 Kd5 {0.00/19}) 48... Rh2+ 49. Ke3 Ra2 50. Ra8 h5 51.
a4 Ra3+ 52. Kf2 Ke5 53. a5 Kf4 54. c5 Ra2+ 55. Ke1 h4 56. c6 h3 57. c7
h2 {0.00/19}) 47... Kf6 48. Ke3 (48. a4 Rh5 49. Ra3 Ra5 50. Kd3 Ke7 51.
Ra1 Kd6 52. Kd4 Rf5 53. Rd1 Kc7 54. Rd2 h5 55. Re2 h4 56. Ke4 Rc5 57.
Rc2 Kc6 {0.10/19} ) 48... Rh1 49. Ke4 h5 50. c5 Rc1 51. Kd5 h4 52. Rf3+
Ke7 53. Rh3 g5 54. f4 Kf6 55. c6 gxf4 56. Rxh4 Kg5 57. Rh2 f3 {2.56/19})
(45... Kf6 46. a4 (46. c5 Rh4 47. Kd3 Ra4 48. Re8 Rxa3+) 46... Rh5 47.
Ra3 Ra5 48. Kd3 Ke6 {0.63/29}) (45... Rh1 46. Kd2 Rb1 (46... Kf6 47. c5
Rb1 (47... Rh5 48. c6 Ra5 {2.01/29}) 48. Kc3 h5 {1.07/29}) (46... Kf7
47. c5 Rb1 (47... Rh5 48. c6 Ra5 {1.75/29}) 48. a4 h5 {1.40/29}) 47. c5
Kf7 (47... Kf6 48. Kc3 h5 {1.11/29}) 48. Kc3 g5 {0.60/29}) 46. Kd3 Rf4
({Stockfish 6 64:} 46... Kf7 47. Kc3 (47. Rf3+ Ke7 (47... Ke6 48. a4
(48. Kc3 Rh1 49. a4 g5 50. a5 h5 51. Kb4 g4 52. Ra3 Kd6 53. a6 Rb1+ 54.
Kc3 Rb8 55. Ra5 h4 56. Rg5 h3 57. Rxg4 Rh8 58. Rg1 h2 59. Rh1 Kc6 60.
Kd4 Kb6 61. f4 Kxa6 62. f5 Kb7 63. f6 Kc6 64. Ke4 Kc5 65. f7 Kxc4
{0.57/37}) 48... Rh1 {0. 68/29}) 48. a4 Rh1 {0.56/29}) (47. c5 Rf4 48.
a4) 47... Rf4 (47... Rh2 48. Rf3+ Ke6 {1.17/29}) 48. c5 g5 {0.69/29})
(46... Kf6 47. a4 Rf4 (47... h5 48. Kc3 Rh1 {2.19/29}) 48. Kc3 Rxf2
{1.61/29}) (46... h5 47. c5 Kf7 (47... Ra4 48. c6 Kf7 { 1.26/29}) 48. c6
Ra4 {1.25/29}) 47. c5 Kf7 (47... h5 48. c6 Rf8 {7.31/29}) 48. Re2 Ra4
(48... Rf6 {2.98/29}) 49. c6 Rxa3+ (49... Ra6 50. Rc2 Ra8 $18) 50. Kd4
Ra1 51. Rc2 {0} Rd1+ 52. Ke5 Re1+ 53. Kd6 Rd1+ 54. Kc7 Re1 (54... Rb1
55. Kd7 Rd1+ 56. Kc8 Rb1 57. c7 Ke7 58. Ra2 g5 59. Ra7 Kf6 60. Rb7 Rc1
61. Kb8 Kf5 62. c8=Q+ Rxc8+ 63. Kxc8 h5 64. Rb5+ Kf4 65. Kd7 h4 66. Ke6
g4 67. Rh5 h3 68. Rf5+ Ke4 69. Rf6 Kd3 70. Kf5 h2) (54... h5 55. Rb2
(55. Kc8 h4 56. c7 h3 57. f4 (57. f3 g6 58. Kb7 h2 59. Rxh2 Rb1+ 60. Kc6
Rc1+ 61. Kd7 Rd1+ 62. Kc8 Rb1 63. f4 Rb4 64. Rd2 Ke7 65. Rd7+ Ke8 66.
Rd6 {123.44/19}) 57... g6 (57... Kf6 58. Kb8 Rb1+ 59. Ka8 (59. Ka7 Ra1+
(59... h2 60. Rc6+ Kf7 61. c8=Q Ra1+ 62. Kb6 Rb1+ 63. Ka5 Ra1+ 64. Kb4
Rb1+ 65. Ka3 Ra1+ 66. Kb2 {123.47/19}) 60. Kb7 Rb1+ (60... h2 61. Rxh2
Rb1+ 62. Kc8 g6 63. Rc2 Ke7 64. Re2+ Kf6 65. Re5 Kg7 66. Kd7
{123.44/19}) 61. Kc6 h2 62. Rxh2 Rc1+ 63. Kb7 Rb1+ 64. Kc8 Ke7 (64...
Kf5 65. Rg2 Rd1 66. Rxg7 {123.45/19}) 65. Rg2 (65. Re2+ Kf7 66. Re5
{123.44/19}) 65... Kf7 66. Rg5 {123.44/19} (66. Rd2 Ke8 67. Rd8+ Kf7 68.
Rd7+ Ke8 69. Rxg7 Rd1 70. Rg6 Rb1 71. Re6+ Kf7 72. Re5 Kg7 73. Kd7 Rd1+
74. Kc6 Rc1+ 75. Rc5 Rh1 76. c8=Q Rh6+ 77. Kb7 Rf6 78. Rc7+ Rf7 79.
Rxf7+)) 59... Ra1+ 60. Kb7 h2 61. Rxh2 Rb1+ 62. Kc8 Rc1 63. Rh5 g6 64.
Re5 Rc4 65. Kb7 Rb4+ 66. Kc6 {123.48/19}) 58. Kb7 Rb1+ 59. Kc6 h2 60.
Rxh2 Rc1+ 61. Kd7 Rd1+ 62. Kc8 Rb1 63. Rc2 Ke7 64. Rc5 Ke8 65. Re5+ Kf8
66. Kd7 {123.45/19 White checkmates Black in nine moves}) 55... h4 56.
Kb8 (56. Kb7 h3 57. f3 Rc1 58. c7 Kf6 59. Rh2 Rb1+ 60. Kc8 g6 61. Rxh3
Kg7 62. Rh4 Kf6 63. Rd4 Ke7 64. Rd7+ Ke8 65. Rd6 Ke7 66. Rxg6 {123.44/19
White checkmates Black in fifteen moves}) 56... h3 57. Rb7+ Kf6 58. c7
Rc1 59. c8=Q Rxc8+ 60. Kxc8 g5 61. Rb3 g4 62. Rb5 Kg6 63. Kd7 Kh6 64.
Kd6 Kg6 65. Ke6 Kh6 66. Kf6 { 123.50/19 White checkmates Black in eleven
moves}) 55. Kc8 h5 56. c7 Re7 57. Kd8 Rxc7 58. Kxc7 Kf6 59. Kd6 Kf5 60.
Rc5+ Kg4 61. f3+ {deflection} Kxf3 62. Rxh5 Kf4 63. Rh4+ Kf5 64. Kd5
g5 65. Rh8 Kf4 66. Kd4 g4 67. Rf8+ Kg3 1-0
Probably GM Sebag calculated that she could win the outside a-pawn, but did not consider that this plan would lead to a lost rook and pawn endgame. Or, she got to that point, saw that 49...Rxa3+ was losing either way, so she opted to go for tactical chances.
