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Aug 7, 2019 at 14:02 comment added Arlen The win probability difference comes from the table in Arpad Elo's "Rating of Chessplayers, Past and Present" but I honestly forget where the doubling of thinking time equates to +100 Elo. I suspect it was from Levy's book on computer chess. I remember it from years ago -- a postal master was playing half a dozen computers at once. He referenced it when explaining why he was winning; the brain is able to use the extra time more efficiently than the computers were. It's possible advancement in algorithms has affected that projection since then.
Nov 12, 2018 at 0:31 comment added Vladimir Vargas @Arlen do you have references for what you are saying? Thanks
Jan 4, 2015 at 20:11 vote accept Zvonimir
Dec 2, 2014 at 3:55 comment added Arlen The longer the time control, the more advantage black has. In the field of computer chess, it's axiomatic that doubling the time adds 100 to the effective rating. For humans, the effect is slightly greater. And a +200 in Elo yields an expected score difference of 75-25 (+100 is 64-36). The first might be enough to tip it to White, the second definitely doesn't.
Dec 1, 2014 at 11:58 history answered BlindKungFuMaster CC BY-SA 3.0