25

I think they certainly have increased their ELO, but more importantly, their overall chess strength. ELO is only a rating relative to others in the pool so it may tend to go up more slowly if everyone in the pool gets better, which they have collectively. First, you need to take an average of the top players, rather than look at just two incredibly special ...


24

Probably more often than people realize. There have been several notable instances where GMs (even world champions) have missed simple mates in one. From my own experience, when I analyze my games the engine frequently will point out some ridiculous 25 move forced mate. In a game, I'm not going to take the time to calculate something like that out if I have ...


18

It really depends on what counts as a missed checkmate. In Blitz we occasionally see a missed mate in 1. In slower games, mates in a few moves are rarelly missed. But the problem is that sometimes long mate sequences will be "intentionally missed", as the player will go for a solid advatange that guarantees victory rather than calculate a 15-move ...


15

The question is apparently based on a misunderstanding of how ELO ratings work. There is absolutely no mechanism by which the overall increase in players' strength would lead to increase in their ELO. The actual value of the ELO rating bears no meaning; nor does the comparison of ELO at distant times. The only thing that has direct relevance is the ...


12

The simplest answer is "No" because draw offers are not retained. By that I mean that although the players may record draw offers on their scoresheets, that information is thrown away when the games are transcribed and saved. In all events where norms are possible the organizer has to send the records of the games in electronic (pgn) format to FIDE. When ...


11

The advantage White gets in a game is so small that it becomes completely irrelevant at low levels. What is the point of having such edge on your opponent if you at least are going to make an inaccuracy in the opening or middlegame? Furthermore, in blitz games that small advantage is probably negligible since a greater deal of mistakes are made. My online ...


11

As I do not have access to the full Lomosonov tablebases, here is an answer based on the Syzygy tablebases, which are available online in machine-readable format. I interpret your question as "how often does the side to move win, lose or draw". As the Syzygy tablebases only include positions where White has material advantage, we have to add the ...


9

If those engines have a 3600 Elo, shouldn't top players have profited from it to leave Kasparov's 2851 score in 1999 far away? No. The main effect of engines and also the internet has been to democratise chess. The top players have always had access to top level evaluation and knowledge. For lower level players that kind of knowledge, analysis, position ...


8

The earliest Armageddon games I can find go back to the Women's World Chess Championship 2001, and the FIDE World Championship in 2002, which GM Ruslan Ponomariov won. This is probably a fairly complete list since Armageddon really only lends itself to knock-out tournaments or matches, and the question did ask primarily about GMs and Armageddon. There might ...


8

This chess variant is called hand and brain. From watching many of these games, I can guess that the only boost achieved is that low rated players get advice on a piece which is hanging. So given your example, the hand would appear to gain Elo (named after Arpad Elo) just for not leaving pieces en prise. Another advantage, although not very useful, is ...


7

I agree with the answers above, however, there are actually some cases where GMs missed mate-in-ones in classical chess while not in time trouble. If memory servers right, I have read about that a few years back on chess.com's news page, but I cannot find the article right now. The main reason is the following: Player A only needs a draw (to outright win the ...


6

It's a bit old, but this paper from 1995 by Mark Glickman (creator of the Glicko rating system) discusses some of the rating systems in use at the time, including the ones used by the USCF, FIDE, and the PCA. In it, several issues are mentioned, such as rating inflation/deflation, regional variations in ratings, variations in time controls, and the advantage ...


6

This depends entirely your horizon for what you consider a missed mate. Is there any upper bounds on the number of moves required? Would you consider a "mate in 53" to be a missed mate, even if no one, human or computer, had the computational power to actually find such a mate (but maybe in 100 years a computer could show a forced mating sequence ...


5

Yes, there are such studies. You can check this recent paper and references therein for the older ones. Various ideas have indeed been tried in order to quantify the "complexity" of position (e. g., in terms of complexity of search tree or dynamics of the evaluation function as the depth grows), but I think you better read the papers if you are interested in ...


4

Not that I know of. You could do this yourself for each world champion, taking a sample size of something like 20-30 games for each. That may give you fairly good statistics, since as the sample size goes above that there won't be any dramatic changes. It's a good point to mention the bias, but in who's favour this works isn't clear. If world champions get ...


4

It really depends on how broadly you want to define the openings. For example, while not popular at that level, GMs have played the Smith Morra. Of course, a standard open Sicilian is better. The same goes for those, who have played the King's Gambit when trying for the Ruy Lopez is better. The Ruy Lopez is probably objectively better than the Italian ...


4

A few things: 1) Ratings overall tend to rise due to inflation of more players entering the pool, rather than the average playing strength of players increasing. If everyone becomes better by some factor due to engines, why would top players' ratings increase? They're now playing opponents who have also gotten stronger by roughly the same amount. 2) ...


4

The variability in number of legal moves is about the same for black & white... except for that odd little bump for white on move 7. This phenomenon demands further research!


4

One thing is that you may adjust your opening choice, knowing that any forced draws are wins for you. For instance as white against the Najdorf, 6.Bg5 has many lines that contain forced draws, and black may be used to playing lines where he would welcome them. Now he has to avoid them and that may force him to play inferior lines. That said -- if this makes ...


4

Fascinating question. I computed the stats for each individual file (Standard, Rapid and Blitz) downloaded from the FIDE download page. I added up the number of games reported for each FIDE player for each control time and list. Standard Time Control 145,618 games played in and reported in the April list. Only 9,946 games played in standard time control ...


4

As Brian Towers noted, it'd be impossible for over the board GM chess. However, it might be possible to do this analysis on online games, as draw offers are recorded. I am not aware of any analysis about this currently available, but it's definitely possible.


4

Let me count the reasons.... It all depends! And there is no way to answer your question exactly. GMs do not play by your arbitrary evaluation method. They play to win or possibly to not lose. While their tactics are usually very good , missing a mate in 5 while winning the game is more important to them. Depending on how they feel, how much clock time ...


3

As I said in an earlier answer I've built a database with downloaded data from Olimpbase and FIDE to allow me to do data mining. To answer this question I downloaded the latest (May 1st) rating list and loaded the data into my database and ran a few queries. These are the results I get for Sum(Games) for April and May for Standard, Rapid and Blitz: April ...


3

But in practice what is the average encountered in all or most tournaments? Or even a distribution for high endish , low endish, middling value? And which of those is prevalent? This page will let you see every tournament that was rated in a particular state in a particular month. It takes a little effort from there to click through and see what the time ...


3

tl;dr Not reliably, no. Every single database suffers from the exact same flaw (among others) when calculating winning percentage -- the bias introduced when lines are refuted. Players, especially today's players, will react far more quickly to a change in evaluation than the database results will. When the evaluation of a line changes, the lines players go ...


3

People are not computers. They learn and memorize as much as possible but they can not do as much as a computer can nor as fast. The top players are doing everything they can but they can not do it all like the computer does.


3

ChessBase allows you to search for positions with promotions to each piece, with or without check. In the Mega 2019 database, there are 8,266,473 games. In those games, there are 486,622 promotions to queen; 7,223 promotions to knight; 1,486 promotions to bishop; and 9,606 promotions to rook. Of the 7,223 promotions to knight, 5,733 came with check, or 79.3%...


2

I thought you'd be playing something quiet like the London System. It explains perfectly well why your win rates with Black and White match. Not because the London is not "sound and solid". It is. But too solid. Solid is fine as Black when the main aim is to equalize White's first-move advantage. However, if you are playing White yourself, you can strive ...


2

Maths64's answer is fine. I would like to add: "Don't change your opening repertoire based on some silly irrelevant statistics! Play what feels more comfortable with you" It could be the case that you faced stronger players more often as White. It could also be the case that you made some random mistakes more often as White due to pure chance (or maybe ...


2

Yes (actually, hell yes). World class correspondence chess is very close to the infamous "draw death" of chess. If you thought 70-80% draw rate among the world elite at classical chess was bad, check out what it's like at world correspondence chess championship level: 9 decisive games out of 136 played, or about 95% draws. World class ...


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