# Tag Info

## Hot answers tagged statistics

24

Probably more often than people realize. There have been several notable instances where GMs (even world champions) have missed simple mates in one. From my own experience, when I analyze my games the engine frequently will point out some ridiculous 25 move forced mate. In a game, I'm not going to take the time to calculate something like that out if I have ...

20

The short answer Yes, they do, although very few GMs do and by a margin of less than 10%. This does not seem to be due only to random factors (see long answer). An example is GM Joseph Gallagher. As you can see in his FIDE profile page, he has the following games record (as for 15 Dec. 2020): White +124 =118 -73, score = 58.1% Black +126 =124 -67, score = ...

19

How would say a 1700 rated player of say 50 years ago who is no longer .around go against a 1700 player of today? Speaking as a player who was around 50 years ago and was rated the equivalent of 1800 in 1973 (my BCF grading was 150 with a generally accepted conversion formula of ELO = BCF x 8 + 600) and is rated 1718 today I'm pretty sure I would beat my 17 ...

18

It really depends on what counts as a missed checkmate. In Blitz we occasionally see a missed mate in 1. In slower games, mates in a few moves are rarelly missed. But the problem is that sometimes long mate sequences will be "intentionally missed", as the player will go for a solid advatange that guarantees victory rather than calculate a 15-move ...

13

Everybody seems to agree that "ELO inflation" is real (I found an article from 20 years ago claiming this exists)...except scientists. Here is a 2011 paper that vehemently denies the phenomenon; the abstract says that only little inflation happens, and the players really get better. https://ojs.aaai.org/index.php/AAAI/article/view/7951

13

White scores about 54%, which is quite different from White winning 54% of all game, more so considering how draws occur more often between stronger players. None of the top players score better as Black, and I doubt there are grandmasters who do. If that were the case, it'd definitely be due to a small sample. I used to have a better score as Black back ...

13

The raw data which could be used to extract this information is available on the FIDE website (from 2001) and the Olimpbase website (before 2001). What you will need to do is clean the data (the older the data the more "dirty" it is), construct a relational database and insert the data. Then you will be able to use SQL to search the database for ...

12

As I do not have access to the full Lomosonov tablebases, here is an answer based on the Syzygy tablebases, which are available online in machine-readable format. I interpret your question as "how often does the side to move win, lose or draw". As the Syzygy tablebases only include positions where White has material advantage, we have to add the ...

12

I think the key of this is number of played games. Nihalsarin2004 9440 bullet games konevlad 1113 blitz games Zhigalko_Sergei 257 rapid games Biranidun 84 clasic games

8

This is actually a very interesting question! Actually, there were not many 1700 rated players 50 years ago because most ratings started above 2000. With the evolution of computers, it is very plausible that a 1700 player now is much stronger than 50 years ago. Nowadays, openings are spoon-fed and many references are available whereas those days every day ...

8

Yes (actually, hell yes). World class correspondence chess is very close to the infamous "draw death" of chess. If you thought 70-80% draw rate among the world elite at classical chess was bad, check out what it's like at world correspondence chess championship level: 9 decisive games out of 136 played, or about 95% draws. World class ...

7

According to Lichess's database for games between ~1600 rated players in the Caro-kann does indeed show that 3. e5 is much more common than other moves. e5 in fact accounts for 46% of games played; compare this to the second most common move, exd5, which is only 28%. Often when amateurs are learning the concept of space in chess, the Advanced French Defense ...

7

I agree with the answers above, however, there are actually some cases where GMs missed mate-in-ones in classical chess while not in time trouble. If memory servers right, I have read about that a few years back on chess.com's news page, but I cannot find the article right now. The main reason is the following: Player A only needs a draw (to outright win the ...

7

According to FIDE, there are 20,763 players rated 2200 or above (as of May 2021). 9,460 are currently active

6

This depends entirely your horizon for what you consider a missed mate. Is there any upper bounds on the number of moves required? Would you consider a "mate in 53" to be a missed mate, even if no one, human or computer, had the computational power to actually find such a mate (but maybe in 100 years a computer could show a forced mating sequence ...

5

Let me count the reasons.... It all depends! And there is no way to answer your question exactly. GMs do not play by your arbitrary evaluation method. They play to win or possibly to not lose. While their tactics are usually very good , missing a mate in 5 while winning the game is more important to them. Depending on how they feel, how much clock time ...

5

Here are some fide visualizations from 2014. Distribution is one, but not the most interesting to me. Enjoy!

5

Here are the percentages for each promotion type according to different sources: |Promotion type | ChessBase | TWIC | ICCF | -------------------------------------------- | Queen | 96.9 | 97.3 | 96.1 | | Rook | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.7 | | Knight | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.7 | | Bishop | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | Details: ...

4

Is there a data file somewhere containing every single (FIDE) rated game? As an arbiter I can tell you definitively that the answer is "No". However you don't need to be an arbiter to know that. You just need to have played in a FIDE rated blitz tournament. Nobody is writing the moves down in those tournaments. In FIDE rapid tournaments you do get ...

4

I was surprised not to be able to easily find this statistic. The information is available with quite a lot of work from data which FIDE makes available on its website. The key page is the Ratings Download page. If you are an arbiter and you use a FIDE approved pairing program (e.g. Swiss Manager or Vega) then when you click the button to auto-magically ...

3

I've run some queries against my database constructed from the rating data downloaded from the the FIDE download site. I've then copied the output of the queries to Excel and asked it to draw some graphs. Here are the results for standard, rapid and blitz for December 2020.

3

As far as I know, Fide does not publish a figure of the Elo distribution. So you can plot it yourself from the latest rating list; or you can rely on secondary sources who occasionally post it, such the link provided by @Michael West or this answer on this site. Both show the distribution of Fide Elo on July 2014. The figure below shows the Elo distribution ...

3

This isn't an answer to the exact question posed, but it may nonetheless help. Lajos Portisch learnt to play aged 12. Akiba Rubinstein learnt at 14 or 16. (Sources vary.) Harry Pillsbury learnt at 16.

3

Yes, it's possible to obtain the data you want. Chess.com has a REST API which is described in the following news post: https://www.chess.com/news/view/published-data-api You can use the following URL to get a list of monthly archives of a players games: https://api.chess.com/pub/player/{username}/games/archives In this list you will find URLs which look ...

3

Here are the results of queries on the latest (April 2021) FIDE rating list. Interesting to note that Iceland is actually only in 2nd. I guess in the map in the question Monaco is too small to see. The first big country (population > 1 million) is Armenia in 5th. Russia, the country with the most GMs - 240, is only in 31st place. No sign in this list of ...

3

How do I get this data into a spreadsheet like column 1 is all the dates, column 2 is the corresponding white elo, column 3 black elo, col4 white username and col5 black username? From the .pgn file downloaded at https://api.chess.com/pub/player/gmwso/games/2020/12/pgn I have created a file called chess_games.xlsx and I have inserted the five values you are ...

2

Just wanted to augment the excellent answer above with some further examples: Smirin vs Anand, 1994, 0-1 Mamedyarov vs Lputian, 2004, 1-0 Ye Jiangchuan vs Ni Hua, 2004, 1-0 G. Sargissian vs Tiviakov, 2004, 0-1 Radjabov vs P.H. Nielsen, 2004, 1-0 L. Dominguez vs V. Malakhov, 2004, 1-0 Hamdouchi vs Kudrin, 2004, 1-0 P. Smirnov vs Aronian, 2004, 1-0 Dreev vs ...

2

I expand on GeneM's answer correctly noting that "Armageddon Chess is a fair tie-break system only if the two players bid for how much time Black should have.". (My additions are too long for a comment to that answer.) An armageddon tiebreak with an arbitrary, externally imposed time penalty for the Black/draw-odds player is not reliably fair ...

2

To answer this question you would first have to explain what you mean by "long". If you define "long" as over the number of games played, then the next question is "which games do you count?" It shouldn't be surprising that if a grandmaster plays in their local weekend circuit against much-weaker players, they are almost never ...

2

Amateurs are slaves to grandmaster fashion. When a line gets noticed at the 2800 level, the 2500 players adopt it, then the 2200, 1900, and so on. Also, bad chess coaches recommend 3. e5 because there's less for their students to remember, though it shouldn't be a matter of memorization but understanding. e5 is still a popular choice among strong players ...

Only top voted, non community-wiki answers of a minimum length are eligible