As I do not have access to the full Lomosonov tablebases, here is an answer based on the Syzygy tablebases, which are available online in machine-readable format. I interpret your question as "how often does the side to move win, lose or draw". As the Syzygy tablebases only include positions where White has material advantage, we have to add the ...
I am not 100% sure of what your are asking.
Are you saying that Stockfish missed a draw by playing Bf8 as shown in the diagram ie there was some other move that could have drawn?
Or are you saying Stockfish missed a drawing line later.
Or are you asking in general where Stockfish went wrong in the game?
If you look at the evaluations then Stockfish ...
it is very close and complex.
I have won many end games with 2ps vs rook.
here the black king is out of play and white has 3 pawns
black will have to work hard to get the draw.
I doubt any computer can analyse this far enough to give a conclusive answer and it was drawn as far as they could see ahead.
Analysis with Houdini 6.02 signal a win for White(+4.53)at d= 41/103 after more than a quarter hour of analysis. The winning method is complicated though , and White should start with 1 Bg2. Thanks. A demo (analysis included for pure curiosity in my program )with New Engine gives + 5.58 at d= 56 , which confirms the endgame is slowly winning for White.
After Rxc2 Kxc2 Kxf4 we reach the below position, which is a tablebase draw.
The plan for White is really simple: queen the h-pawn (White can give up the rest of the pawns).
Black king is too far away to help, that is why it is a draw (there are winning techniques for Black, but they require kings to be in close proximity).
Feel free to test my claims with ...
Let's note the following: 1.Rxc2 and 1.Kxf4 and 1.Rd8+ are equally good, since they all draw. If we ignore 1.Rd8+ for now, 1.Rxc2 is clearly at least as good as 1.Kxf4 in the position, since it drives black's king back one square, meaning that black will at some point have to 'waste' a move with the king to get to white's remaining pawns (the option of 1.Rd8+...
An easy lower bound would be to set a White queen in a corner and set up an easy mate in 2.
[FEN "Q6r/8/8/8/8/8/4k1p1/r6N b - - 0 1"]
This sets Black down to a minimum of a king, two rooks, and a pawn in count and value.
You can do something like this in SCID, which is a free program. It takes a little effort, but it's not too bad.
First, load the desired database. Then use a filter to select only games from the opening of your choice. You can filter either by a position, or by ECO code, to get the desired opening. Note how many games meet the filter criteria.
Next, use ...
Moving your queen next to your king and moving your king in a diamond around your queen for up to 30 moves seems like it’d be decently fast and not need much thought if you’re really low on time. Every move up to and including the draw is as short as possible, distance-wise.
can I force a draw if I am running out of time?
Of course! Just swap the queen for the rook.
There are two basic possibilities.
He keeps the king and rook very close (normal best practice when trying to draw this difficult endgame). In that case every time you threaten the rook with your queen he must move the rook and keep it close to the king. It should ...