# Questions tagged [statistics]

Questions about game statistics, e.g. the winning percentage of a "line," the probability of some event occurring in a game, or player statistics.

223 questions
Filter by
Sorted by
Tagged with
814 views

### Improvement of chess engines over time

Chess engine strength has increased considerably over time due to increase of computer strength, but also improvement in algorithms/parameters. Is there any statistics or graph out there which shows ...
• 20.8k
754 views

### Where can I find a rarity table of chess player ratings? [duplicate]

Now it's fine either as percentage of all FIDE players registered or just as number itself (like either 1/100k players are rated above X, or 23 players rated above X, respectively). Let's say by ...
• 623
285 views

### Draws by game number in championship matches

Some commentators have expressed surprise at the two relatively bland draws to open out the most recent (Carlsen-Karjakin) World Championships. I'm wondering whether there's been any study as to ...
212 views

### Carlsen vs Karjakin individual encounter results statistics so far?

I wonder how many times Carlsen and Karjakin played so far and who won the more number of games. Any idea?
• 1,875
456 views

### Why is 7. f3 so ubiquitous in the Yugoslav Sicilian?

I'm a mid-level player just starting to systematically study openings, and I'm wondering why it is that after the signature Yugoslav initiation 6. Be3 by White, and the certain follow-up 6. ... Bg7, ...
• 525
2k views

### Have there really been more books published on chess than any other sport?

In the history of sport — and publishing — it’s not even close: one sport has had more books (and for that matter, magazines, tracts, pamphlets and handbills) published about it far more than any ...
1k views

### Does engine score correlate with winning chances?

I was wondering if there is a statistical or probabilistic (at least approximate) way of looking at a score of a chess position of a certain fixed engine, say "crafty version 5" for example. i.e. ...
• 783
188 views

### Statistical Right Handedness Bias in Move Selection?

It seems clear to me that there must be a statistical bias in the move selection of master level games in relation to the natural "hand" of the move, right or left. Let me explain. For the sake of ...
• 561
3k views

### If the Sicilian is so strong, why do people still play e4 in competitions?

1.d4 is a statistically more successful opening for white due to the high success rate of the Sicilian defence against 1.e4 I understand it's fun to play different openings, but at the highest level, ...
• 179
1 vote
832 views

### chess win expectancy by material difference table or calculator

Houdini Chess engine is said to have a calibrated evaluation in which engine scores correlate directly with the win expectancy in the position. A +1.00 pawn advantage gives a 80% chance of winning the ...
244 views

### What are examples of grandmaster games where both Black and White castle opposite sides and the queenside players loses?

I want to become better at attacking my opponent's king when they castle queenside. What are some grandmaster games where the player who castles queenside gets mated or loses due to a powerful attack ...
• 1,895
278 views

### Live viewers for top chess events

What is the average number of live viewers (online and TV) for top chess events like the world championship match and the candidates tournament? Are there some statistics publicly available?
• 5,546
1 vote
276 views

### How to see average game length for specific chess opening (number of moves)?

How to see average game lenght for specific chess opening? Is there some chess database which allow me to see specific opening game length? For example: Sicilian defense (average length is: 80.5) ...
• 515
103 views

### Meaning of move stats in opening databases

I naively thought that if I picked the biggest winning move (for example using white) in the database and kept picking moves that white would always win, but at some point the advantage for white ...
• 161
417 views

### What features can I add to this FIDE chess application? (edits made 2/25)

EDIT: Most of the app is completed. Now all I have to complete is implementation of FIDE arbiters, a dynamic 3d plot (right now it only has 3 variables being plotted, no inputs affect it), adding more ...
3k views

### Statistically, what is the best opening?

Statistically, what opening has white won with the most? Such as, 1.e4 e5 2? What is the move that white makes that has won the most games?
• 135
857 views

### What's the average piece density?

In a position, the piece density is equal to the total number of pieces on the board (Whites pieces + Black pieces) divided by the total number of squares (64). At the beginning of every game, the ...
• 4,848
817 views

### What is the percentage of players who are women in the sections where both men and women can play in?

I am NOT asking for the percentage of chess players that are women. I am asking for the percentage of players who are women in the sections where both men and women can play in. That percentage is ...
• 4,848
452 views

### What is the probability that a position has been played before?

When reading annotated games from GMs, I sometimes find annotations such as "This was tried by XXX in 1975 vs YYY". Such annotations are sometimes found very deeply in the game, sometimes past move 20....
• 549
2k views

### What is the average length of a game of chess with only random moves?

The famous Shannon number, 10^120, an estimated lower bound on the number of possible chess games, is based on the assumption that a typical game lasts 40 moves. In games between skilled human ...
• 9,041
372 views

### What is the percent of players in the top X that are women for different values of X?

I have already found some numbers thanks to this website: http://www.ferimex.com/icc/frl.php?list=0&country=0&title=0&sex=0&year=0&old=0&cat=0&size=9&update=yes Top 50:...
• 4,848
1k views

### Rating rise: luck or actual increase in playing strength?

The FIDE rating of very active chess players can vary a lot: rating fluctuations of 50 rating points are not unusual. Is there a way to distinguish whether a rating rise/drop can be explained by ...
• 5,546
12k views

### What is the average age to become a grandmaster?

On average, what is the age of people when they obtain the title of international master or grandmaster? I also wonder how the age distribution looks like.
• 5,546
8k views

### Bishop vs Knight

I read in a book written by Fischer about piece values, and he said that a knight is worth 3 pawns, and a bishop is worth 3,25 pawns. I know that in closed positions knights are better, and I have ...
887 views

### What are the winning chances of every pieces? (6men egtb)

Is there a site or document which shows what the winning chances are of every "Specific Pieces vs. Specific Pieces" endgame? e.g. What are the winning chances of Rook & Bishop vs 2 Knights?
• 423
3k views

### Top player with the lowest drawing rate

Which player of the top 50 has the lowest drawing rate ? Who is it in the top 100 ? And which woman in the top 50 has the lowest drawing rate ?
• 3,409
104k views

### Is the number of possible chess games infinite?

This question is somewhat related to Can the total number of possible wins/draws/losses be calculated?, but slightly different. There is a recent TV show episode that claims that there are "more ...
• 299
1k views

### In an opening tree on ChessBase, how can we fix the statistics so that transpositions are not taken into account in the total number of games?

In an opening tree (also called "opening explorer" or "openings book") on ChessBase 12, here are the statistics that we get after 1. Nf3 c5 : So it seems that after 1. Nf3 c5 White will play 2. e4 93%...
• 4,848
1k views

### Is there a list of unsound openings?

Not so long ago I was looking for a comprehensive list of openings (and received an excellent answer with a huge list). Hearing a lot about unsound openings, I am curious whether I can have a ...
• 4,808
1k views

### Chess Statistics How to?

I am a graduate student studying statistics and I play chess once in a while for fun. I was thinking (just for the fun of it) -- applying some of what I've learned in statistics to chess games: I ...
• 151
12k views

### Which side has the advantage in an Armageddon tiebreak game?

It is generally considered that white has better chances of winning in chess. This is due to white's initiative, since white gets to move first. The difference in chances seems to get more significant,...
• 1,315
303 views

### What are some common statistical analyses we can run on many games (~20k games)?

I have a list of around 20k games played on a popular online website. I would like to run some statistical analyses on these games. I'm not talking about analysing specific games, but rather finding ...
• 61
6k views

### Does black really have a disadvantage?

Most people say chess is a draw, and it is quite believable, white is but a tempo up, and skill plays a lot of part in the game. But even the most skillful agree that blunders are made, in some games ...
• 3,281
4k views

### Average number of moves per game

What are the average number of moves per game with regards to what opening has been played?
• 31
1k views

### How many positions are there in n-pieces endgame tablebases for different values of n? [duplicate]

Note that I don't want the exact values, I only need approximations. And I am only interested in small values of n (not more than 12).
• 4,848
277 views

I have watched some matches played in the chess Olympiad in Tromsø. The majority of the games I watched, one player played the English opening, and usually he won, I haven't seen any French opening ...
• 5,784
2k views

### Which piece is least likely to be taken?

If one were to analyse a large number of chess games, which specific piece (not type of piece) would be found to be taken the least number of times? And yes, in light of SomePatzer's comment, besides ...
• 109
423 views

### Could you explain me this part of GM Larry Kaufman's article on "The Evaluation of Material Imbalances"?

This is a stupid question that has more to do with English than with chess, so if other people also think it's stupid I can delete it after I get the answer. Since English is not my mother's tongue I ...
• 4,848
2k views

### Does GM Larry Kaufman's "principle of the redundancy of major pieces" truly exists? Or could this effect be caused by the number of Pawns instead?

The following is an extract from The Evaluation of Material Imbalances by GM Larry Kaufman. I put in bold characters everything that was important for this question. https://www.chess.com/article/view/...
• 4,848
1 vote
2k views

### For long OTB games, what is the percentage of players who have a rating which is below X FIDE Elo?

I am looking for statistics on the FIDE Elo of chess players. I would like to know what is the percentage of players who have a rating which is: Below 1000 Elo Below 800 Elo Below 600 Elo Below 400 ...
• 4,848
838 views

### Three questions on GM Larry Kaufman's article about the average relative value of the chess pieces [closed]

I have three questions related to this article written by GM Larry Kaufman: https://www.chess.com/article/view/the-evaluation-of-material-imbalances-by-im-larry-kaufman . Question n°1: Kaufman rounded ...
• 4,848
4k views

### What's the difference between a tempo and a tempi? At the start, how many tempo/tempi is White up? On average, how many tempo/tempi is one Pawn worth?

What's the difference between a tempo and a tempi? At the start, how many tempo/tempi is White up? Half, one, or two? At the start of the game (before White has even made his first move), how many ...
• 4,848
2k views

### Between 1.d4 and 1.Nf3, what is the White first move that generally leads to the most solid, positional, slow, closed, strategic and quiet positions?

I'm a ~1750 Elo player and I've been thinking of switching my opening repertoire for White. So my question is: between 1.d4 and 1.Nf3, what is the White first move that generally leads to the most ...
• 4,848
5k views

### Has any other grandmaster gone as long undefeated like Capablanca?

Between 1916 and 1924, future World Champion J.R. Capablanca, as of 1921, experienced a period of eight years without a single tournament defeat. He was then regarded as one of the world's best ...
• 12.4k
2k views

### 1. e4, 1. d4, 1. c4, or 1. Nf3? Which opening move has given the greatest scoring percentage for White in World Championship Matches?

Which opening move out of 1. e4, 1. d4, 1. c4 and 1.Nf3 has given the best scoring percentage for White in World Championship matches? What are the percentages?
• 8,845
2k views

### Are world-class correspondence games more likely to be drawn than world class OTB games?

A games of chess with perfect play from both sides may be a draw. And while we don't have any perfect chess players it does seem that a match between two equally strong grandmasters is more likely to ...
• 347
1k views

### Can the total number of possible wins/draws/losses be calculated?

http://s13.postimg.org/miyhhh113/chess_finite_graph.png I'm trying to imagine the finite graph of all positions in chess. Due to the sheer number of possible positions, it is impossible with current ...
1k views

### Are modern chess programs tactically perfect?

In a given situation, can we assume that a chess engine is tactically perfect - meaning that it can find all possible tactics which are there in that position. Is it possible for the best of modern ...
• 1,053
2k views

### Which 20th century grandmster had the highest draw percentage in their career?

The title says it all. I am looking to learn and adopt a play style which does not necessarily win, but is typified as being incredibly difficult to actually win against, hence why I wish to know who ...
• 635
2k views

### What are the first moves chosen (White), by brute force chess engines?

Title says it all. Feel free to add comment, theory, or explanation. Just to clarify, this is only regarding turn 1 of White, and no proceeding turns after it.
• 635