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Questions tagged [statistics]

Questions about game statistics, e.g. the winning percentage of a "line," the probability of some event occurring in a game, or player statistics.

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6 votes
2 answers
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Reasons for losing

Wouldn't be surprise if this is a duplicate (related even more related), but: Obviously there are two main ways to lose a game: Blundering it away in a single move or be slowly crushed by a better ...
Hauke Reddmann's user avatar
4 votes
2 answers
4k views

List of female chess players by peak FIDE rating

Update: The answer currently doesn't include countries and other trivia like in the original one. Please consider posting an answer with at least the countries or editing current answer to include ...
BCLC's user avatar
  • 2,178
6 votes
1 answer
429 views

Winning percentage (white win/draw/black win) in chess960/9LX in 2021?

How does the winning percentage (white win/draw/black win) in chess 960 (Fischer random) compare to that of regular chess? The above was asked here: Winning percentage in chess 960. I would like to ...
BCLC's user avatar
  • 2,178
7 votes
2 answers
662 views

Why, in online chess, is it that the shorter the time control, the higher the world leading elo is?

I noticed on lichess.org that the shorter the time control, the higher the world-leading elo is. Is there a simple explanation for that? I also noticed that, in the meantime, the shorter the time ...
JKHA's user avatar
  • 181
27 votes
5 answers
8k views

Are chess players getting better, given the same rating?

Chess ratings are a relative thing at a particular time, just like boxing. It is not absolute, compared to weightlifting for example, in which the records keep getting broken. How would say a 1700 ...
Autistic's user avatar
  • 399
5 votes
0 answers
113 views

Percentage of decisive games decided by tactical mistakes?

In their book, The Woodpecker Method, Axel Smith and Hans Tikkanen give these percentages of decisive games decided by tactical mistakes: GMs 42% 2200-2400 44% 2000-2200 63% 1800-2000 72% They say: ...
Brian Towers's user avatar
  • 98.6k
7 votes
1 answer
952 views

Relation between ratings for Chess960 and standard chess

Is there any relation or any attempt at discovering a relation between Chess960 ratings and standard chess ratings? This can be for GMs, for (any)M's, for pro players, or for all players on lichess/...
BCLC's user avatar
  • 2,178
8 votes
3 answers
6k views

Elo distribution

In some online chess platforms you can see the Elo distribution of the players. It usually has Gaussian form. Is there somewhere where you can find the distribution of the classical Fide Elo?
SharkCaller's user avatar
6 votes
2 answers
367 views

How many FIDE rated games are played per year?

I was surprised not to be able to easily find this statistic. How many FIDE rated games are played around the world each year?
stevec's user avatar
  • 2,107
2 votes
2 answers
346 views

Is there a data file available (e.g. a .csv) containing every single rated game?

Question Is there a data file somewhere containing every single (FIDE) rated game? What I found out so far I see many websites with some limited database search capability, or summary statistics, but ...
stevec's user avatar
  • 2,107
5 votes
2 answers
462 views

What's the oldest age at which a grandmaster played their first rated game?

Of all grandmasters past and present, what is the oldest age at which any of them started playing chess? Define started playing chess: The day that person played their first (FIDE, or equivalent) ...
stevec's user avatar
  • 2,107
4 votes
1 answer
354 views

What are the percentage rates for each promotion type?

I could not find the database which has this, but I would like to know what percentage of promoted pawns ends up being a queen, rook, bishop, or knight
timosenko1's user avatar
21 votes
2 answers
7k views

Do any grandmasters win more with black than white?

Some statistics indicate white scores 52-56% - but I wonder if that differs according to playing style - e.g. perhaps strong defenders prefer the black pieces. Do any former/current grandmasters have ...
stevec's user avatar
  • 2,107
4 votes
3 answers
1k views

Is it true that amateur players tend to choose the advance variation after 1. e4 c6 2. d4 d5?

My database shows that after 1. e4 c6 2. d4 d5, white has the following main variations: Nc3 exd5 e5 and they are equally popular among professional players. However, from my experience playing ...
Zuriel's user avatar
  • 9,091
2 votes
1 answer
317 views

Getting wrong results in perft stats with checks and mates

The perft count works well after testing with many positions from epd files from the web Now I want to see some perft stats like this one: https://www.chessprogramming.org/Perft_Results, from the ...
user avatar
4 votes
1 answer
112 views

As we come out of lockdown, how much FIDE rated chess was played in June 2020?

I asked a similar question about chess during lockdown. Now that some countries are coming out of lockdown and chess is resuming FIDE has published data for June. NB I looked at May data and as far as ...
Brian Towers's user avatar
  • 98.6k
1 vote
1 answer
417 views

What percentage of the time does White win in the Lomonosov tablebase?

Studies show a slight advantage for White for having the first move. In the tablebase of trillions of 7-piece endgames, with White to move, how many of those endgames end up as wins, how many as ...
Witness Protection ID 44583292's user avatar
4 votes
1 answer
382 views

How often do grandmasters fail to mate soon when mate in five or less is possible?

The recent question, How often do grandmasters miss checkmate? , turned out to be a bit broad. This question asks about a simple subset of that one, which I hope can be answered with some precision. ...
Bit Chaser's user avatar
20 votes
4 answers
7k views

How often do grandmasters miss checkmate?

Although top players are extremely good at finding checkmate, the number of permutations of moves in just 3 moves can be hundreds of thousands, and the farther out the possible mate (e.g. mate in 4, ...
stevec's user avatar
  • 2,107
4 votes
1 answer
771 views

By how much does being told what piece to move improve one's Elo?

Here is a (rather humorous) game in which a 900 player is told by a much higher rated player only which kind of piece to move (e.g. along the lines of "bishop", not "light square bishop"). Is it ...
stevec's user avatar
  • 2,107
6 votes
1 answer
1k views

What is the typical move prediction accuracy of human chess grandmasters?

I couldn't find any data about the percentage of moves that a typical human grandmaster would be able to predict in games of other human grandmasters. To clarify my definition of accuracy: The ...
user2845840's user avatar
8 votes
2 answers
278 views

Is there any website that shows which opening a certain player struggles against?

I just thought that it would be an interesting statistic to know which openings players like Carlsen and Fischer lost most against. Are there any websites that give these statistics?
Lone_Ranger's user avatar
4 votes
2 answers
488 views

How much FIDE rated chess was played in April 2020?

FIDE has just published the May 2020 rating list which brings the ratings up to date for games played in April. The rating file can be downloaded from the FIDE download page. Many countries have ...
Brian Towers's user avatar
  • 98.6k
13 votes
2 answers
1k views

Statistics on rejected draw offers

I am wondering if there are any statistics on rejected draw offers (say of GM games). Namely, what are the following percentages of the following results when a draw offer is declined: The side that ...
Zuriel's user avatar
  • 9,091
5 votes
2 answers
198 views

How to exploit an opponent must-win situation

I am 1.5 points clear of the field, and my last-round opponent is in a must-win situation for a prize. Is there a mathematically/statistically proven way for me to take advantage of this state of ...
Daniel Moskovich's user avatar
2 votes
1 answer
126 views

Are there any papers that highlight the problems with rating systems?

Ratings are a paradox. Mathematically they seem to dependent on other factors than ability. Yet people are obsessed with their rating as if it defines them as a person somehow. Are their any ...
edwina oliver's user avatar
3 votes
2 answers
347 views

What is the average speed in tournaments for USFC rapid chess ratings?

Rapid ratings cover a very wide range of time controls and bump up against regular (where games are dual rated) as well as blitz time controls. What is the average time for USCF rapid games that are ...
edwina oliver's user avatar
4 votes
2 answers
85 views

Is there an analysis of World Champions' games that shows the statistics of their game?

Is there an analysis of World Champion games, with the help of engines, that shows statistics like percentage of best moves played, blunders made, creative moves which computers can only see at high ...
SubhanKhan's user avatar
  • 2,158
2 votes
2 answers
156 views

Are there any moves that are more popular in databases of GM games but are objectively inferior?

Usually in a particular opening position, if move A is more popular (in GM games) than move B, then either move A is objectively better than move B, or move A is equally good as move B. Are there ...
Zuriel's user avatar
  • 9,091
14 votes
5 answers
7k views

Why have engines not increased top rated chess players' Elo?

The arrival of strong chess engines as Stockfish, Houdini or Rybka allow top players to deeply prepare lines in openings or to study better endgames. I would expect a rating increase of top players. ...
user avatar
3 votes
1 answer
372 views

Knight promotion percentages

Knight promotion is the second most common promotion. Most of the time it is to give an otherwise undeliverable check. But it doesn’t always come with check. Statistically speaking, what percentage of ...
Rewan Demontay's user avatar
1 vote
3 answers
1k views

Why I did not see the first-mover advantage in my game history? [closed]

I have played over a thousand blitz games at chess.com and here are the results: I failed to notice any obvious difference between white and black. In other word, I do not see the the first-mover ...
Zuriel's user avatar
  • 9,091
28 votes
2 answers
1k views

How do age and initial rating correlate to decline in playing strength with age?

The current Rausis phone cheating scandal saw a player with an initial rating of about 2500 in his 50's improve by about 200 rating points in 6 years. This improvement was remarkable because older ...
Brian Towers's user avatar
  • 98.6k
2 votes
2 answers
322 views

In Swiss tournaments, is it common to play weaker players when playing White?

I was looking at the statistics for my tournament games in SCID, and found something surprising. When I played opponents rated under 1000, 13 out of 15 times I've had White. Conversely, when I played ...
D M's user avatar
  • 19.7k
2 votes
1 answer
580 views

Draw rates in classical chess between elite players?

I'm looking for detailed statistics exhibiting draw rate for elite players. I did find this and this publications, however, they only contain aggregated data for 2600+ players, and arrive at a figure ...
Kostya_I's user avatar
  • 1,902
8 votes
4 answers
1k views

Is there a low-end ELO Deflation?

I've heard often about Elo Inflation among the top chess players, meaning that a player rated 2650 Elo nowadays is weaker compared to a player rated 2650 Elo player 10 years ago. I'm curious if there'...
ThinkTank's user avatar
  • 425
30 votes
2 answers
9k views

How often does castling occur in grandmaster games?

May I know how to find in all grandmaster games, what the percentage of each of the following is? Kingside castling Queenside castling Never castled by the end of the game but still has the right to ...
Zuriel's user avatar
  • 9,091
4 votes
6 answers
1k views

Is my low blitz game drawing rate at www.chess.com an indicator that I am weak in chess?

I have played 630 blitz game at chess.com and only 10.3% of my games are draw; see the diagram. When I play black, my drawing rate is slightly higher than my drawing rate playing white. This is ...
Zuriel's user avatar
  • 9,091
8 votes
3 answers
4k views

What is the draw frequency for 3 consecutive games (same players; amateur level)?

In Mr. Robot (TV series) episode "eps2.2_init_1.asec", Elliot and Mr. Robot drew 3 consecutive chess games. They remark it's impossible. The odds of that are Impossible. As far as TV shows go, Mr. ...
anon's user avatar
  • 91
5 votes
6 answers
280 views

In the opening stage, can we determine that one move is better than another by looking at winning percentage?

After 1.c4 Nf6 2. Nc3 g6, thousands of games have been played with the following two moves of white: 3.g3 and 3.e4. It seems that the winning percentage suggested that 3.e4 is clearly better than 3....
Zuriel's user avatar
  • 9,091
3 votes
1 answer
3k views

Most drawish and least drawish opening

Based on statistics (drawing percentage), which opening is the most drawish and which one is the least drawish? I am aware of questions such as this one, but my question is different. There are two ...
Zuriel's user avatar
  • 9,091
12 votes
3 answers
4k views

What is the average number of legal moves per turn?

For example in the first turn there are 20 possible legal moves (16 pawn moves and 4 knights moves). This number increases in the middlegame and then decreases in the Endgame. Are there some ...
Superluminal's user avatar
  • 1,993
4 votes
1 answer
1k views

Oscillating Stockfish Evaluation on Laptop

I'm using stockfish-9-bmi2 on my laptop to provide me move by move evaluation of games. I've set Stockfish to evaluate to depth = 25 plys. I find that the evaluation provided oscillates move-on-move ...
codemaniac's user avatar
17 votes
3 answers
5k views

Are there statistics on the results of armageddon games at the GM level?

I've tried finding statistics on the results of competitive armageddon games played at a high level (say, GM level), but to no avail. Evidently, these statistics must exist, as for example FIDE ...
ATLPoly's user avatar
  • 642
1 vote
2 answers
152 views

Can an Optimal Stopping strategy be applied to search functions?

Can the solution to the famous Secretary Problem be applied to the search function of a chess engine? Rejecting the first 37% moves and choosing the best one after that,or maybe even just checking the ...
myname jeff's user avatar
10 votes
1 answer
402 views

Why are games more likely to last 60, 80 and 120 moves?

I've downloaded and parsed the king-base chess database (about 1.5 million games) and am looking at distribution of moves for games. When plotting the distribution for different outcomes, I see spikes ...
Peter Jones's user avatar
3 votes
3 answers
348 views

Database program for statistics about mistakes

I wonder if there is an application that will help with statistics for my own games. Of course - there are applications (eg. Scid, Chessbase) that allow to make some statistics out of database - but ...
Chlebik's user avatar
  • 369
4 votes
1 answer
90 views

What kind of statistics should I run on a database? [closed]

I have written a python script to verify the strategical rule of "controlling the center". I have parsed the free 2.2 million games database (it takes about 5 minutes) and I have found that the ...
Ziofil's user avatar
  • 170
-2 votes
1 answer
3k views

What is the number of chess position for each move? [closed]

I have read some articles that chess has a numbers of 10 to power of 120. Can some one can throw lights to it: White 1st move: No of Position White 2nd move: No of Position till White 72nd move: No ...
user avatar
6 votes
1 answer
1k views

Winning percentage in chess 960

How does the winning percentage (white win/draw/black win) in chess 960 (Fischer random) compare to that of regular chess? Are there more white wins, fewer draws,...?
user1583209's user avatar
  • 20.8k