Questions tagged [statistics]

Questions about game statistics, e.g. the winning percentage of a "line," the probability of some event occurring in a game, or player statistics.

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36
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5answers
52k views

What is the average length of a game of chess?

I hope this is an appropriate question for this site as I've been wanting a reputable answer. Of course the length of games can vary wildly, but what is the expected number of moves until either a ...
31
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1answer
2k views

Do strong players move their pieces with different relative frequencies than weak players?

This question is an offshoot of Ramon Snir's earlier one about how often different types of pieces get moved, on average, in a game of chess. My question: Do the relative numbers of moves for the ...
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8answers
4k views

Does the first-move advantage for White have real meaning apart from the highest levels of play?

Most games that involve taking turns, with one player going first by lot or agreement, have some sort of advantage to going first. Tic-tac-toe, for instance, is a guaranteed draw for player 1, ...
28
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1answer
2k views

What openings typify 21st century chess?

What openings are particularly typical of 21st century chess so far? To be more clear, which openings are particularly popular in the 21st century relative to the 20th century? For example, certain ...
27
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2answers
7k views

How often does castling occur in grandmaster games?

May I know how to find in all grandmaster games, what the percentage of each of the following is? Kingside castling Queenside castling Never castled by the end of the game but still has the right to ...
22
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2answers
2k views

Pawn to Queen probabilities chart

Statistically speaking, which white and black pawns are most likely to be queened?
19
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4answers
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How often do grandmasters miss checkmate?

Although top players are extremely good at finding checkmate, the number of permutations of moves in just 3 moves can be hundreds of thousands, and the farther out the possible mate (e.g. mate in 4, ...
18
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2answers
4k views

Do any grandmasters win more with black than white?

Some statistics indicate white scores 52-56% - but I wonder if that differs according to playing style - e.g. perhaps strong defenders prefer the black pieces. Do any former/current grandmasters have ...
17
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9answers
92k views

Is the number of possible chess games infinite?

This question is somewhat related to Can the total number of possible wins/draws/losses be calculated?, but slightly different. There is a recent TV show episode that claims that there are "more ...
15
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1answer
6k views

What is the average age to become a grandmaster?

On average, what is the age of people when they obtain the title of international master or grandmaster? I also wonder how the age distribution looks like.
14
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3answers
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Does GM Larry Kaufman's “principle of the redundancy of major pieces” truly exists? Or could this effect be caused by the number of Pawns instead?

The following is an extract from The Evaluation of Material Imbalances by GM Larry Kaufman. I put in bold characters everything that was important for this question. https://www.chess.com/article/view/...
13
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5answers
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Why have engines not increased top rated chess players' Elo?

The arrival of strong chess engines as Stockfish, Houdini or Rybka allow top players to deeply prepare lines in openings or to study better endgames. I would expect a rating increase of top players. ...
13
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4answers
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Are there any examples of high-level games in which the game was resigned or drawn without any captures?

Are there examples of high-level games which were resigned or drawn before any captures were made? Along similar lines, what game had the most moves before a capture was made? Edit: I'm especially ...
13
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3answers
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Computer evaluations: How trustworthy are they?

Fritz 12 with Rybka gave a friend of mine an evaluation of +3 for white in this endgame position, [Title "White to move"] [FEN "8/8/8/3k3p/3P3K/2P3R1/8/7r w - - 0 1"] which turned out to be a draw. ...
13
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2answers
1k views

Statistics on rejected draw offers

I am wondering if there are any statistics on rejected draw offers (say of GM games). Namely, what are the following percentages of the following results when a draw offer is declined: The side that ...
13
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2answers
1k views

Are there statistics on the results of armageddon games at the GM level?

I've tried finding statistics on the results of competitive armageddon games played at a high level (say, GM level), but to no avail. Evidently, these statistics must exist, as for example FIDE ...
13
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1answer
374 views

What features can I add to this FIDE chess application? (edits made 2/25)

EDIT: Most of the app is completed. Now all I have to complete is implementation of FIDE arbiters, a dynamic 3d plot (right now it only has 3 variables being plotted, no inputs affect it), adding more ...
12
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7answers
5k views

Bishop vs Knight

I read in a book written by Fischer about piece values, and he said that a knight is worth 3 pawns, and a bishop is worth 3,25 pawns. I know that in closed positions knights are better, and I have ...
12
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2answers
2k views

Who is/was the lowest ranked World Chess Champion?

Boris Gelfand has just won the 7th of 12 games (all previous drawn) in the FIDE World Championship match against the current holder of the title Viswanathan Anand. This puts him in a good position to ...
12
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2answers
2k views

Piece movement statistics

I have wondered about piece movement statistics, for example: How many times is a piece moved in average (in general, but also per-piece, as I'm guessing the Queen moves more than any specific pawn)? ...
11
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5answers
5k views

Is it true that Chess is generally more played by men?

I have recently heard that the only 5% percent out of entire chess players are women. I find this suspicious. Who says that only men can play chess? Is this statistic true, and if it is, why?
11
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2answers
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What merit is there to the so-called “Swiss gambit?”

The "Swiss gambit" refers to the idea of intentionally lowering one's performance at the beginning of a Swiss-system tournament, to one degree or another, in order to have an easier path through the ...
10
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1answer
277 views

Why are games more likely to last 60, 80 and 120 moves?

I've downloaded and parsed the king-base chess database (about 1.5 million games) and am looking at distribution of moves for games. When plotting the distribution for different outcomes, I see spikes ...
9
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3answers
1k views

What is the average number of legal moves per turn?

For example in the first turn there are 20 possible legal moves (16 pawn moves and 4 knights moves). This number increases in the middlegame and then decreases in the Endgame. Are there some ...
9
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5answers
7k views

Which side has the advantage in an Armageddon tiebreak game?

It is generally considered that white has better chances of winning in chess. This is due to white's initiative, since white gets to move first. The difference in chances seems to get more significant,...
9
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3answers
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Has any other grandmaster gone as long undefeated like Capablanca?

Between 1916 and 1924, future World Champion J.R. Capablanca, as of 1921, experienced a period of eight years without a single tournament defeat. He was then regarded as one of the world's best ...
9
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5answers
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Which piece is least likely to be taken?

If one were to analyse a large number of chess games, which specific piece (not type of piece) would be found to be taken the least number of times? And yes, in light of SomePatzer's comment, besides ...
9
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5answers
561 views

What is the last piece to be developed, and why?

Statistically speaking, for white and black, what is the last piece moved from its starting position, and why?
8
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2answers
2k views

Which 20th century grandmster had the highest draw percentage in their career?

The title says it all. I am looking to learn and adopt a play style which does not necessarily win, but is typified as being incredibly difficult to actually win against, hence why I wish to know who ...
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3answers
3k views

What is the draw frequency for 3 consecutive games (same players; amateur level)?

In Mr. Robot (TV series) episode "eps2.2_init_1.asec", Elliot and Mr. Robot drew 3 consecutive chess games. They remark it's impossible. The odds of that are Impossible. As far as TV shows go, Mr. ...
8
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3answers
720 views

How do I obtain statistics on openings?

I'm looking for statistics on the probability of a given opening being used in a game, and by what percent its use is growing or declining over some set timeframe, for example, over the previous year. ...
8
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1answer
5k views

Minimum moves to checkmate?

What is the minimum number of moves, counting both sides, in which a checkmate can be made?
8
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1answer
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1. e4, 1. d4, 1. c4, or 1. Nf3? Which opening move has given the greatest scoring percentage for White in World Championship Matches?

Which opening move out of 1. e4, 1. d4, 1. c4 and 1.Nf3 has given the best scoring percentage for White in World Championship matches? What are the percentages?
8
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2answers
502 views

What is the approximate number of unique positions added by each practical game of chess?

The average number of moves in a game of chess is about 40. This would be an average of about 80 positions in each game, but many positions are shared between games. More sharing occurs at the ...
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5answers
1k views

In an opening tree on ChessBase, how can we fix the statistics so that transpositions are not taken into account in the total number of games?

In an opening tree (also called "opening explorer" or "openings book") on ChessBase 12, here are the statistics that we get after 1. Nf3 c5 : So it seems that after 1. Nf3 c5 White will play 2. e4 93%...
7
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4answers
867 views

Are world-class correspondence games more likely to be drawn than world class OTB games?

A games of chess with perfect play from both sides may be a draw. And while we don't have any perfect chess players it does seem that a match between two equally strong grandmasters is more likely to ...
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3answers
2k views

Top player with the lowest drawing rate

Which player of the top 50 has the lowest drawing rate ? Who is it in the top 100 ? And which woman in the top 50 has the lowest drawing rate ?
7
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3answers
789 views

Elo distribution

In some online chess platforms you can see the Elo distribution of the players. It usually has Gaussian form. Is there somewhere where you can find the distribution of the classical Fide Elo?
7
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2answers
667 views

Are there statistics on the frequency of tactical motifs?

I was taking a look at the tactical motifs on chess tempo and I was curious to know which motifs are encountered most often and which motifs are encountered the least? Are their statistics for this?
7
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2answers
1k views

Can the total number of possible wins/draws/losses be calculated?

http://s13.postimg.org/miyhhh113/chess_finite_graph.png I'm trying to imagine the finite graph of all positions in chess. Due to the sheer number of possible positions, it is impossible with current ...
7
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1answer
456 views

What is the typical move prediction accuracy of human chess grandmasters?

I couldn't find any data about the percentage of moves that a typical human grandmaster would be able to predict in games of other human grandmasters. To clarify my definition of accuracy: The ...
6
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2answers
2k views

If the Sicilian is so strong, why do people still play e4 in competitions?

1.d4 is a statistically more successful opening for white due to the high success rate of the Sicilian defence against 1.e4 I understand it's fun to play different openings, but at the highest level, ...
6
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4answers
547 views

Is there a low-end ELO Deflation?

I've heard often about Elo Inflation among the top chess players, meaning that a player rated 2650 Elo nowadays is weaker compared to a player rated 2650 Elo player 10 years ago. I'm curious if there'...
6
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3answers
1k views

What is the average length of a game of chess with only random moves?

The famous Shannon number, 10^120, an estimated lower bound on the number of possible chess games, is based on the assumption that a typical game lasts 40 moves. In games between skilled human ...
6
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2answers
223 views

What is the percent of players in the top X that are women for different values of X?

I have already found some numbers thanks to this website: http://www.ferimex.com/icc/frl.php?list=0&country=0&title=0&sex=0&year=0&old=0&cat=0&size=9&update=yes Top 50:...
6
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1answer
255 views

Draws by game number in championship matches

Some commentators have expressed surprise at the two relatively bland draws to open out the most recent (Carlsen-Karjakin) World Championships. I'm wondering whether there's been any study as to ...
6
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1answer
198 views

Distribution of time per move

I am interested in the distribution of time (in seconds) that players take per move. To this end, I am looking for game traces that contain timing information. I have found a number of chess ...
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4answers
4k views

How popular is chess?

There's a survey on chess.com, Do your friends play chess?, and the results aren't very encouraging. Personally, very few of my friends play chess. Then I read this question: What's the most ...
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6answers
4k views

Does black really have a disadvantage?

Most people say chess is a draw, and it is quite believable, white is but a tempo up, and skill plays a lot of part in the game. But even the most skillful agree that blunders are made, in some games ...
5
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6answers
247 views

In the opening stage, can we determine that one move is better than another by looking at winning percentage?

After 1.c4 Nf6 2. Nc3 g6, thousands of games have been played with the following two moves of white: 3.g3 and 3.e4. It seems that the winning percentage suggested that 3.e4 is clearly better than 3....