# Questions tagged [statistics]

Questions about game statistics, e.g. the winning percentage of a "line," the probability of some event occurring in a game, or player statistics.

223 questions
Filter by
Sorted by
Tagged with
31 views

### If an armageddon bid is drawn, then is it fair to force a re-bid?

Re In armageddon bidding, what happens if the bid is drawn? In 2023 or 2024 Champions Chess Tour, I heard they re-bid. My assumptions: If they bid the same, then they needn't re-bid. They can flip a ...
• 2,162
3k views

### Percentage of "playable" openings

Google says 197,742 positions are possible after 4 halfmoves. Let's call a position playable if it is not worse than 0.5 pawn units on the engine of your choice (I use Lichess Stockfish). By this ...
• 16.5k
1 vote
84 views

### Has anyone looked at the percent of brilliant, best, book, etc moves in chess.com by rating?

After a game, chess.com lists moves as "brilliant", "best" etc down to "blunder". I'm wondering about the % of each for random selections of players at different levels ...
• 587
218 views

### The Most Frequent Checkmate Patterns

Of the main checkmate patterns which are the most frequent (in games that ended with a checkmate)? Based on chess literature the Back-rank mate is arguably the most common, I would expect the Queen ...
143 views

### How to access high level tournament game data

I am currently in need of data from high level tournaments for a project and the data needs to include information like each individual move, the engine evaluation after each move, and the time ...
• 31
77 views

### Transferring data from chess engine to statistical software

How do I extract data such as board configuration, engine evaluation, time spent per move etc from an engine into a statistical software package like stata? I am currently trying to investigate the ...
• 31
1 vote
99 views

### How common are tripled pawns in chess games?

Recently I played a nice OTB game where I sacked a pawn to triple my enemy's pawns, and won convincingly. Having played thousands of games online and dozens OTB, I somehow fail to remember any other ...
234 views

### Ecological footprint of chess

Chess must be a very "green" sport, the resource demand is minimal. But then, lately online chess is in vogue, and servers eat amps. Any estimation how much energy online chess is consuming ...
• 16.5k
56 views

### Who is the first woman to play USCF rated chess in all 50 US states?

On X/Twitter this tweet appeared by somebody called Megan: Today was a historic day for my #chess life. I wrapped up the 50 states quest in Alaska, with Fairbanks Chess Club's #NationalChessDay G/15 ...
• 98.3k
369 views

### En passant capture - statistically advantageous?

If anyone is doing chess score analysis (on say, last 10 years of competitive games), I wonder if it's identifiable how many times en passant (EP) capture could have been played vs how many times it ...
• 31
220 views

### Which officer type makes (on average) the most moves in a chess game?

I suppose K the least (endgame will up the ante for K, but not that many games will reach the endgame) and N the most (the knight is slow in regrouping) but I don't have access to a megabase. I expect ...
• 16.5k
119 views

### How often do strong master level players (2400+) make illegal moves?

In the latest podcast from the Chicken Chess Club, Laurent Fressinet admitted that in his latest tournament, the French rapid and blitz championships, he made an illegal move. He asked the other two ...
• 98.3k
269 views

### According to Wikipedia, only three women have EVER been top 100 in chess. How many men have ever been top 100?

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women_in_chess "Three women, Maia Chiburdanidze, Polgár, and Hou Yifan, have been ranked in the world's top 100 players." That is, right now, there are not ...
• 259
1 vote
135 views

Chess.com keep tweeting about how combative this match is. 3 out of 5 games so far have been decisive, more than any other match in the last 10 years. Of course, us old timers remember Reykjavik 1972 ...
• 98.3k
1 vote
188 views

### How often do super GMs blunder mate in 1?

Yesterday (5th April 2023) Nakamura blundered a pretty mate in 1 against Caruana in the Chessable Masters: [Title "Caruana - Nakamura, Chessable Masters 2023"] [fen "Rb6/5kp1/8/1r1P3P/...
• 98.3k
970 views

### Who are the top 10 youngest players to reach a FIDE standard rating of 2200?

In age order of achieving the rating, who are the 10 youngest players to reach 2200 standard FIDE rating? Prag and Karjakin obviously feature, but who else?
• 98.3k
189 views

### How rare are double forks in high-level games?

I was playing a blitz game, when I saw my chance to produce an amusing position, to which my opponent unknowingly obliged; I was able to fork their rooks with my queen and rook simultaneously. [Title &...
• 17.6k
378 views

### Why is the outdated Steinitz Defense still so popular among non-professionals?

The Steinitz Defense is generally considered outdated by modern professional players. However, according to the Lichess Database, the move 3... d6 is actually the second most popular choice after 1.e4 ...
• 9,091
219 views

### Classical world championship where someone lost 3 games in a row, COUNTING draws?

Obviously NOT counting draws there are a lot eg Nepo lost 4-0 total to Magnus in the 2021 WCC so removing the draws, there's that. In the 2019 WFRCC, which was indeed classical, Magnus Carlsen lost to ...
• 2,162
115 views

### Non-linearity in Armageddon bidding: Ostensibly, you give up more time in higher time control

Note: In the ff I assume everyone bids for black, not white. In blitz (below 10min) : I see often there's a 5min vs 4min predetermined time. No idea if this is fair, but let's pretend arguendo players ...
• 2,162
127 views

### Armageddon: How much more desirable is black in chess than chess960 based on airthings masters 2023 vs 2022 WFRCC?

All games in question are 15 minutes. In the 4 armageddon games in the 2022 (inaugural rapid, not the real, classical) WFRCC (both qualifiers and final 8), the Black winning bids are: 13,13,11:10,11:...
• 2,162
1 vote
272 views

### Is armageddon more fair in a Vickrey auction?

I believe armageddon is fair only if they bid, but just because they bid doesn't mean it's fair, i.e. bidding is necessary but not sufficient to be fair. Which side has the advantage in an Armageddon ...
• 2,162
135 views

### Is Armageddon always without increment?

Robert Hess said tells Danya that no increment influences why Robert prefers white to black in Armageddon chess960. Of course it really depends on the bid, but I guess Robert would want a lower bid ...
• 2,162
1 vote
142 views

### Is armageddon more fair if bids aren't 1-time only?

As pointed out by GeneM here Armageddon Chess is a fair tie-break system only if the two players bid for how much time Black should have. Question: But is it actually more fair if the bids are the ...
• 2,162
469 views

### Why would I bid for white in armageddon (in regular chess)?

Related: Regular chess: Why would I bid for white in armageddon (in regular chess)? Chess960: Why would I bid for white in armageddon in chess960? Were there armageddons where white gets lower time or ...
• 2,162
1 vote
167 views

### Why would I bid for white in armageddon in chess960?

Related: Regular chess: Why would I bid for white in armageddon (in regular chess)? Chess960: Why would I bid for white in armageddon in chess960? Were there armageddons where white gets lower time or ...
• 2,162
1 vote
505 views

### In armageddon bidding, what happens if the bid is drawn?

Re armageddon, there is sometimes bidding ("how much time they're willing to give up to play with their desired color") instead of pre-determined 5min vs 4min. What happens if the bid is ...
• 2,162
111 views

### Armageddon: Does / Should White have a lower advantage in chess960 compared to chess?

I'm not (necessarily) asking which colour is more favoured in armageddon chess960. I'm asking that given however much or little white has an advantage of armageddon chess, is this advantage lower in ...
• 2,162
218 views

### How does the average standard FIDE rating vary by age and sex?

In my answer to this question regarding requirements for female titles I quoted the mean and standard deviation for male and female ratings for standard chess in the then current FIDE rating list. ...
• 98.3k
753 views

### When was the last time Magnus Carlsen lost 2 classical games in a row to the same player besides to Wesley So?

Related questions: When was the last time Magnus Carlsen lost 3 classical games in a row besides to Wesley So? When was the last time Magnus Carlsen lost 2 classical games in a row to the same ...
• 2,162
284 views

Where can I find a site that calculates Neustadtl Sonneborn–Berger score (or Sonneborn–Berger score or whatever) given a cross-table? Closest I found is this. Eg Given the cross-table (implied from ...
• 2,162
93 views

### Hikaru on chess960: Have there been more Najdorf or Dragon games in the past decade?

From Wikipedia: Hikaru in 2014 on chess960: (emphasis added) I think chess960 is great as it is simply pure intuition and understanding without theory or computers. In my opinion, a lot depends on ...
• 2,162
234 views

### What are the most popular blunders in the opening stage?

According to the data base at lichess, after 1. d4 Nf6 2. c4 e5 3. dxe5 Ng4 4. Bf4 Nc6 5. Nf3 Bb4+ 6. Nbd2 Qe7 7. a3 Ngxe5, 8. axb4?? has been played 27,409 times (including played by a player with a ...
• 9,091
1 vote
230 views

### Percentage of kids that "stay"

Just for fun, I'm going through my ancient games. Who? Never heard of? Vanishville? As a kids trainer I of course know that only a tiny percentage will become "professionals" (and I merely ...
• 16.5k
50 views

### Record total number of chess games by a player

I just read in a chess mag that Korchnoi holds the record with 5000+ documented games. I'm a bit sceptic about that - should I a) ever electronically document my games (currently they are just a ...
• 16.5k
234 views

### Is the decline in chess strength in a GM as they age similar to their ascension or different?

I mean, given that GMs or other strong players (I choose strong players because their peak rating vs low has "more data" than that of weaker players but it probably relates to weaker players ...
• 775
1 vote
110 views

### At which move the average game is decided?

It's easy to make a statistic how long the average game takes (30-40 moves, to my best knowledge), but when is the average game decided? (Since cashing in the advantage might take a lot of more moves, ...
• 16.5k
239 views

### How often do strong players (FM or above) miss under promotions?

In the April 2022 Reykjavik Open two players missed winning under promotions. In the first Hjartson probably saw that the forcing line starting with Qf7 would lead to stalemate after the queen ...
• 98.3k
180 views

### Why is there a clear difference in master's and other player' opening choice?

For example, based on the database at lichess, after 1. e4, 46.3% of the master games continue with 1... c5 while only 23.4% of all games continue with 1... c5 (31.7% continue with 1... e5). Another ...
• 9,091
92 views

### What engine evaluation does the average randomly generated legal position have?

Would it be accurate to expect a random legal position to tend to evaluate to a white advantage? How does the distribution of evaluations look like?
• 916
166 views

### Point distribution of an "average" tournament

Maybe this is a bit too much towards math, but we have Noam :-) If you view the final point standings of any tournament, you'll probably see many players with an average number of points, but few with ...
• 16.5k
1k views

### How often do Super GMs achieve 100% engine correlation?

There has been speculation that anomalous values of a correlation metric1 may hint to the use of outside assistance. Example Examination of Hans Niemann vs Matthieu Cornette surprises: Hikaru Nakamura:...
• 2,107
84 views

### What are chess openings variations, lines which ensure delayed castling with equal probabilities on both sides; king and queen sides?

What are chess openings variations (lines that ensure delayed castling with equal probabilities on both sides; king side and queen side) for both white and black? Delay to move 15-20.
• 255
150 views

### Centipawn Loss per opening

Centipawn loss isn't sufficient to reflect the playing strength of a player, as some positions are more complex to play than others. A centipawn loss of 20 is more challenging to reach in a wild King'...
• 6,212
2k views

### Why after 1. d4 Nf6, 2. c4 is so common but after 1. c4 Nf6, 2. d4 is so rare?

I am using Lichess's master database and after 1. d4 Nf6, 71.63% of the game continues with 2. c4. However, after 1. c4 Nf6, only 5.22% of the game continues with 2. d4. Are they not essentially the ...
• 9,091
278 views

### "Variance" of Elo rating

What is the quantitative predictive value of Elo rating for tournament performances? (Or, same, what is the natural strength variabitity of an average player, measured in Elo?) A quantitative version, ...
• 16.5k
2k views

### Arbiter's top work cause

Any solid data on which rule decision makes up the lion's share of arbiters work nowadays? (I neglect "Lookie, Flag!" because this is rather passive, and a player can claim it anyway. ...
• 16.5k
6k views

### Did the Queen's Gambit series lead to an increased popularity of the Queen's Gambit opening?

A number of sources have commented on the impact of the Queen's Gambit series on the chess world, usually referring to online chess: The Queen’s Gambit, the Chess Boom, and the Future of Chess How ...
• 3,938
245 views

### For what percent of the time has the official World Champion not been the world number 1?

Now that Carlsen has decided not to defend his title the next official world champion will not be the world number 1. According to this tweet from Welsh GM Nigel Davies : I would estimate that for ...
• 98.3k