Questions tagged [statistics]

Questions about game statistics, e.g. the winning percentage of a "line," the probability of some event occurring in a game, or player statistics.

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13
votes
3answers
4k views

Computer evaluations: How trustworthy are they?

Fritz 12 with Rybka gave a friend of mine an evaluation of +3 for white in this endgame position, [Title "White to move"] [FEN "8/8/8/3k3p/3P3K/2P3R1/8/7r w - - 0 1"] which turned out to be a draw. ...
28
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8answers
4k views

Does the first-move advantage for White have real meaning apart from the highest levels of play?

Most games that involve taking turns, with one player going first by lot or agreement, have some sort of advantage to going first. Tic-tac-toe, for instance, is a guaranteed draw for player 1, ...
36
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5answers
52k views

What is the average length of a game of chess?

I hope this is an appropriate question for this site as I've been wanting a reputable answer. Of course the length of games can vary wildly, but what is the expected number of moves until either a ...
12
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7answers
5k views

Bishop vs Knight

I read in a book written by Fischer about piece values, and he said that a knight is worth 3 pawns, and a bishop is worth 3,25 pawns. I know that in closed positions knights are better, and I have ...
17
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9answers
92k views

Is the number of possible chess games infinite?

This question is somewhat related to Can the total number of possible wins/draws/losses be calculated?, but slightly different. There is a recent TV show episode that claims that there are "more ...
5
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5answers
2k views

What are the first moves chosen (White), by brute force chess engines?

Title says it all. Feel free to add comment, theory, or explanation. Just to clarify, this is only regarding turn 1 of White, and no proceeding turns after it.
4
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2answers
388 views

How much FIDE rated chess was played in April 2020?

FIDE has just published the May 2020 rating list which brings the ratings up to date for games played in April. The rating file can be downloaded from the FIDE download page. Many countries have ...
1
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2answers
2k views

For long OTB games, what is the percentage of players who have a rating which is below X FIDE Elo?

I am looking for statistics on the FIDE Elo of chess players. I would like to know what is the percentage of players who have a rating which is: Below 1000 Elo Below 800 Elo Below 600 Elo Below 400 ...
8
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1answer
5k views

Minimum moves to checkmate?

What is the minimum number of moves, counting both sides, in which a checkmate can be made?
5
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3answers
797 views

What are the winning chances of every pieces? (6men egtb)

Is there a site or document which shows what the winning chances are of every "Specific Pieces vs. Specific Pieces" endgame? e.g. What are the winning chances of Rook & Bishop vs 2 Knights?
31
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1answer
2k views

Do strong players move their pieces with different relative frequencies than weak players?

This question is an offshoot of Ramon Snir's earlier one about how often different types of pieces get moved, on average, in a game of chess. My question: Do the relative numbers of moves for the ...
11
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2answers
3k views

What merit is there to the so-called “Swiss gambit?”

The "Swiss gambit" refers to the idea of intentionally lowering one's performance at the beginning of a Swiss-system tournament, to one degree or another, in order to have an easier path through the ...
11
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5answers
5k views

Is it true that Chess is generally more played by men?

I have recently heard that the only 5% percent out of entire chess players are women. I find this suspicious. Who says that only men can play chess? Is this statistic true, and if it is, why?
7
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2answers
1k views

Can the total number of possible wins/draws/losses be calculated?

http://s13.postimg.org/miyhhh113/chess_finite_graph.png I'm trying to imagine the finite graph of all positions in chess. Due to the sheer number of possible positions, it is impossible with current ...
5
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2answers
226 views

Is there a standardized chess test that can measure one's chess playing condition?

Chess players often say that in a given tournament they were "in good shape", or the opposite. One tournament goes well, another goes horribly wrong. One can also sometimes feel that your head is ...
12
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2answers
2k views

Piece movement statistics

I have wondered about piece movement statistics, for example: How many times is a piece moved in average (in general, but also per-piece, as I'm guessing the Queen moves more than any specific pawn)? ...
9
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3answers
5k views

Has any other grandmaster gone as long undefeated like Capablanca?

Between 1916 and 1924, future World Champion J.R. Capablanca, as of 1921, experienced a period of eight years without a single tournament defeat. He was then regarded as one of the world's best ...
4
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1answer
829 views

Does engine score correlate with winning chances?

I was wondering if there is a statistical or probabilistic (at least approximate) way of looking at a score of a chess position of a certain fixed engine, say "crafty version 5" for example. i.e. ...
19
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4answers
6k views

How often do grandmasters miss checkmate?

Although top players are extremely good at finding checkmate, the number of permutations of moves in just 3 moves can be hundreds of thousands, and the farther out the possible mate (e.g. mate in 4, ...
9
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5answers
7k views

Which side has the advantage in an Armageddon tiebreak game?

It is generally considered that white has better chances of winning in chess. This is due to white's initiative, since white gets to move first. The difference in chances seems to get more significant,...
9
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5answers
1k views

Which piece is least likely to be taken?

If one were to analyse a large number of chess games, which specific piece (not type of piece) would be found to be taken the least number of times? And yes, in light of SomePatzer's comment, besides ...
5
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6answers
4k views

Does black really have a disadvantage?

Most people say chess is a draw, and it is quite believable, white is but a tempo up, and skill plays a lot of part in the game. But even the most skillful agree that blunders are made, in some games ...
4
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2answers
680 views

Statistics on how a rating or winning percentage corresponds to the (opening, middle, end) game?

Have their been any statistics on how your knowledge on part of the game (opening, middle, end) corresponds to your rating or winning percentage? For example, I have found that if I play opening ...
4
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6answers
1k views

Is my low blitz game drawing rate at www.chess.com an indicator that I am weak in chess?

I have played 630 blitz game at chess.com and only 10.3% of my games are draw; see the diagram. When I play black, my drawing rate is slightly higher than my drawing rate playing white. This is ...
3
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1answer
231 views

How often do grandmasters fail to mate soon when mate in five or less is possible?

The recent question, How often do grandmasters miss checkmate? , turned out to be a bit broad. This question asks about a simple subset of that one, which I hope can be answered with some precision. ...
3
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1answer
239 views

Chess Olympiad statistics

I have watched some matches played in the chess Olympiad in Tromsø. The majority of the games I watched, one player played the English opening, and usually he won, I haven't seen any French opening ...
2
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1answer
184 views

Knight promotion percentages

Knight promotion is the second most common promotion. Most of the time it is to give an otherwise undeliverable check. But it doesn’t always come with check. Statistically speaking, what percentage of ...