Questions tagged [statistics]

Questions about game statistics, e.g. the winning percentage of a "line," the probability of some event occurring in a game, or player statistics.

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Relation between ratings for Chess960 and standard chess

Is there any relation or any attempt at discovering a relation between Chess960 ratings and standard chess ratings? This can be for GMs, for (any)M's, for pro players, or for all players on lichess/...
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3answers
789 views

Elo distribution

In some online chess platforms you can see the Elo distribution of the players. It usually has Gaussian form. Is there somewhere where you can find the distribution of the classical Fide Elo?
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5answers
5k views

Is it true that Chess is generally more played by men?

I have recently heard that the only 5% percent out of entire chess players are women. I find this suspicious. Who says that only men can play chess? Is this statistic true, and if it is, why?
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4answers
1k views

Are there any examples of high-level games in which the game was resigned or drawn without any captures?

Are there examples of high-level games which were resigned or drawn before any captures were made? Along similar lines, what game had the most moves before a capture was made? Edit: I'm especially ...
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2answers
4k views

Do any grandmasters win more with black than white?

Some statistics indicate white scores 52-56% - but I wonder if that differs according to playing style - e.g. perhaps strong defenders prefer the black pieces. Do any former/current grandmasters have ...
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2answers
274 views

What's the oldest age at which a grandmaster played their first rated game?

Of all grandmasters past and present, what is the oldest age at which any of them started playing chess? Define started playing chess: The day that person played their first (FIDE, or equivalent) ...
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2answers
107 views

Is there a data file available (e.g. a .csv) containing every single rated game?

Question Is there a data file somewhere containing every single (FIDE) rated game? What I found out so far I see many websites with some limited database search capability, or summary statistics, but ...
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2answers
160 views

How many FIDE rated games are played per year?

I was surprised not to be able to easily find this statistic. How many FIDE rated games are played around the world each year?
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1answer
184 views

Knight promotion percentages

Knight promotion is the second most common promotion. Most of the time it is to give an otherwise undeliverable check. But it doesn’t always come with check. Statistically speaking, what percentage of ...
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1answer
145 views

What are the percentage rates for each promotion type?

I could not find the database which has this, but I would like to know what percentage of promoted pawns ends up being a queen, rook, bishop, or knight
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3answers
5k views

Has any other grandmaster gone as long undefeated like Capablanca?

Between 1916 and 1924, future World Champion J.R. Capablanca, as of 1921, experienced a period of eight years without a single tournament defeat. He was then regarded as one of the world's best ...
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5answers
7k views

Which side has the advantage in an Armageddon tiebreak game?

It is generally considered that white has better chances of winning in chess. This is due to white's initiative, since white gets to move first. The difference in chances seems to get more significant,...
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3answers
948 views

Is it true that amateur players tend to choose the advance variation after 1. e4 c6 2. d4 d5?

My database shows that after 1. e4 c6 2. d4 d5, white has the following main variations: Nc3 exd5 e5 and they are equally popular among professional players. However, from my experience playing ...
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2answers
2k views

Which 20th century grandmster had the highest draw percentage in their career?

The title says it all. I am looking to learn and adopt a play style which does not necessarily win, but is typified as being incredibly difficult to actually win against, hence why I wish to know who ...
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4answers
867 views

Are world-class correspondence games more likely to be drawn than world class OTB games?

A games of chess with perfect play from both sides may be a draw. And while we don't have any perfect chess players it does seem that a match between two equally strong grandmasters is more likely to ...
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1answer
66 views

Getting wrong results in perft stats with checks and mates

The perft count works well after testing with many positions from epd files from the web Now I want to see some perft stats like this one: https://www.chessprogramming.org/Perft_Results, from the ...
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1answer
68 views

As we come out of lockdown, how much FIDE rated chess was played in June 2020?

I asked a similar question about chess during lockdown. Now that some countries are coming out of lockdown and chess is resuming FIDE has published data for June. NB I looked at May data and as far as ...
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1answer
199 views

What percentage of the time does White win in the Lomonosov tablebase?

Studies show a slight advantage for White for having the first move. In the tablebase of trillions of 7-piece endgames, with White to move, how many of those endgames end up as wins, how many as ...
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1answer
231 views

How often do grandmasters fail to mate soon when mate in five or less is possible?

The recent question, How often do grandmasters miss checkmate? , turned out to be a bit broad. This question asks about a simple subset of that one, which I hope can be answered with some precision. ...
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4answers
6k views

How often do grandmasters miss checkmate?

Although top players are extremely good at finding checkmate, the number of permutations of moves in just 3 moves can be hundreds of thousands, and the farther out the possible mate (e.g. mate in 4, ...
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1answer
456 views

What is the typical move prediction accuracy of human chess grandmasters?

I couldn't find any data about the percentage of moves that a typical human grandmaster would be able to predict in games of other human grandmasters. To clarify my definition of accuracy: The ...
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1answer
663 views

By how much does being told what piece to move improve one's Elo?

Here is a (rather humorous) game in which a 900 player is told by a much higher rated player only which kind of piece to move (e.g. along the lines of "bishop", not "light square bishop"). Is it ...
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2k views

Does GM Larry Kaufman's “principle of the redundancy of major pieces” truly exists? Or could this effect be caused by the number of Pawns instead?

The following is an extract from The Evaluation of Material Imbalances by GM Larry Kaufman. I put in bold characters everything that was important for this question. https://www.chess.com/article/view/...
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2answers
388 views

How much FIDE rated chess was played in April 2020?

FIDE has just published the May 2020 rating list which brings the ratings up to date for games played in April. The rating file can be downloaded from the FIDE download page. Many countries have ...
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2answers
1k views

Statistics on rejected draw offers

I am wondering if there are any statistics on rejected draw offers (say of GM games). Namely, what are the following percentages of the following results when a draw offer is declined: The side that ...
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3answers
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Why I did not see the first-mover advantage in my game history? [closed]

I have played over a thousand blitz games at chess.com and here are the results: I failed to notice any obvious difference between white and black. In other word, I do not see the the first-mover ...
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2answers
166 views

How to exploit an opponent must-win situation

I am 1.5 points clear of the field, and my last-round opponent is in a must-win situation for a prize. Is there a mathematically/statistically proven way for me to take advantage of this state of ...
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561 views

What is the last piece to be developed, and why?

Statistically speaking, for white and black, what is the last piece moved from its starting position, and why?
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1answer
89 views

Are there any papers that highlight the problems with rating systems?

Ratings are a paradox. Mathematically they seem to dependent on other factors than ability. Yet people are obsessed with their rating as if it defines them as a person somehow. Are their any ...
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5answers
6k views

Why have engines not increased top rated chess players' Elo?

The arrival of strong chess engines as Stockfish, Houdini or Rybka allow top players to deeply prepare lines in openings or to study better endgames. I would expect a rating increase of top players. ...
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6answers
247 views

In the opening stage, can we determine that one move is better than another by looking at winning percentage?

After 1.c4 Nf6 2. Nc3 g6, thousands of games have been played with the following two moves of white: 3.g3 and 3.e4. It seems that the winning percentage suggested that 3.e4 is clearly better than 3....
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2answers
135 views

What is the average speed in tournaments for USFC rapid chess ratings?

Rapid ratings cover a very wide range of time controls and bump up against regular (where games are dual rated) as well as blitz time controls. What is the average time for USCF rapid games that are ...
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3k views

What is the draw frequency for 3 consecutive games (same players; amateur level)?

In Mr. Robot (TV series) episode "eps2.2_init_1.asec", Elliot and Mr. Robot drew 3 consecutive chess games. They remark it's impossible. The odds of that are Impossible. As far as TV shows go, Mr. ...
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1answer
238 views

Draw rates in classical chess between elite players?

I'm looking for detailed statistics exhibiting draw rate for elite players. I did find this and this publications, however, they only contain aggregated data for 2600+ players, and arrive at a figure ...
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2answers
71 views

Is there an analysis of World Champions' games that shows the statistics of their game?

Is there an analysis of World Champion games, with the help of engines, that shows statistics like percentage of best moves played, blunders made, creative moves which computers can only see at high ...
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2answers
122 views

Are there any moves that are more popular in databases of GM games but are objectively inferior?

Usually in a particular opening position, if move A is more popular (in GM games) than move B, then either move A is objectively better than move B, or move A is equally good as move B. Are there ...
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5answers
872 views

Rating rise: luck or actual increase in playing strength?

The FIDE rating of very active chess players can vary a lot: rating fluctuations of 50 rating points are not unusual. Is there a way to distinguish whether a rating rise/drop can be explained by ...
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7answers
5k views

Bishop vs Knight

I read in a book written by Fischer about piece values, and he said that a knight is worth 3 pawns, and a bishop is worth 3,25 pawns. I know that in closed positions knights are better, and I have ...
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2answers
1k views

Are there statistics on the results of armageddon games at the GM level?

I've tried finding statistics on the results of competitive armageddon games played at a high level (say, GM level), but to no avail. Evidently, these statistics must exist, as for example FIDE ...
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1answer
197 views

Carlsen vs Karjakin individual encounter results statistics so far?

I wonder how many times Carlsen and Karjakin played so far and who won the more number of games. Any idea?
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6answers
1k views

Is my low blitz game drawing rate at www.chess.com an indicator that I am weak in chess?

I have played 630 blitz game at chess.com and only 10.3% of my games are draw; see the diagram. When I play black, my drawing rate is slightly higher than my drawing rate playing white. This is ...
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2answers
502 views

What is the approximate number of unique positions added by each practical game of chess?

The average number of moves in a game of chess is about 40. This would be an average of about 80 positions in each game, but many positions are shared between games. More sharing occurs at the ...
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2answers
283 views

What is the probability that a position has been played before?

When reading annotated games from GMs, I sometimes find annotations such as "This was tried by XXX in 1975 vs YYY". Such annotations are sometimes found very deeply in the game, sometimes past move 20....
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1answer
2k views

Do strong players move their pieces with different relative frequencies than weak players?

This question is an offshoot of Ramon Snir's earlier one about how often different types of pieces get moved, on average, in a game of chess. My question: Do the relative numbers of moves for the ...
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4answers
547 views

Is there a low-end ELO Deflation?

I've heard often about Elo Inflation among the top chess players, meaning that a player rated 2650 Elo nowadays is weaker compared to a player rated 2650 Elo player 10 years ago. I'm curious if there'...
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3answers
1k views

What is the average number of legal moves per turn?

For example in the first turn there are 20 possible legal moves (16 pawn moves and 4 knights moves). This number increases in the middlegame and then decreases in the Endgame. Are there some ...
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3answers
4k views

Computer evaluations: How trustworthy are they?

Fritz 12 with Rybka gave a friend of mine an evaluation of +3 for white in this endgame position, [Title "White to move"] [FEN "8/8/8/3k3p/3P3K/2P3R1/8/7r w - - 0 1"] which turned out to be a draw. ...
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8answers
4k views

Does the first-move advantage for White have real meaning apart from the highest levels of play?

Most games that involve taking turns, with one player going first by lot or agreement, have some sort of advantage to going first. Tic-tac-toe, for instance, is a guaranteed draw for player 1, ...
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2answers
238 views

In Swiss tournaments, is it common to play weaker players when playing White?

I was looking at the statistics for my tournament games in SCID, and found something surprising. When I played opponents rated under 1000, 13 out of 15 times I've had White. Conversely, when I played ...
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2answers
7k views

How often does castling occur in grandmaster games?

May I know how to find in all grandmaster games, what the percentage of each of the following is? Kingside castling Queenside castling Never castled by the end of the game but still has the right to ...