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Questions tagged [statistics]

Questions about game statistics, e.g. the winning percentage of a "line," the probability of some event occurring in a game, or player statistics.

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2 answers
505 views

In armageddon bidding, what happens if the bid is drawn?

Re armageddon, there is sometimes bidding ("how much time they're willing to give up to play with their desired color") instead of pre-determined 5min vs 4min. What happens if the bid is ...
-1 votes
0 answers
31 views

If an armageddon bid is drawn, then is it fair to force a re-bid?

Re In armageddon bidding, what happens if the bid is drawn? In 2023 or 2024 Champions Chess Tour, I heard they re-bid. My assumptions: If they bid the same, then they needn't re-bid. They can flip a ...
1 vote
2 answers
272 views

Is armageddon more fair in a Vickrey auction?

I believe armageddon is fair only if they bid, but just because they bid doesn't mean it's fair, i.e. bidding is necessary but not sufficient to be fair. Which side has the advantage in an Armageddon ...
11 votes
1 answer
3k views

Percentage of "playable" openings

Google says 197,742 positions are possible after 4 halfmoves. Let's call a position playable if it is not worse than 0.5 pawn units on the engine of your choice (I use Lichess Stockfish). By this ...
1 vote
1 answer
84 views

Has anyone looked at the percent of brilliant, best, book, etc moves in chess.com by rating?

After a game, chess.com lists moves as "brilliant", "best" etc down to "blunder". I'm wondering about the % of each for random selections of players at different levels ...
1 vote
4 answers
1k views

How do convert/parse/extract data from a PGN into a spreadsheet/google sheet/excel file?

Sequel to this question: Live statistics chess960 from chess.com? So suppose I go to like https://api.chess.com/pub/player/gmwso/games/2020/12 or https://api.chess.com/pub/player/gmwso/games/2020/12/...
3 votes
0 answers
218 views

The Most Frequent Checkmate Patterns

Of the main checkmate patterns which are the most frequent (in games that ended with a checkmate)? Based on chess literature the Back-rank mate is arguably the most common, I would expect the Queen ...
3 votes
1 answer
143 views

How to access high level tournament game data

I am currently in need of data from high level tournaments for a project and the data needs to include information like each individual move, the engine evaluation after each move, and the time ...
0 votes
1 answer
77 views

Transferring data from chess engine to statistical software

How do I extract data such as board configuration, engine evaluation, time spent per move etc from an engine into a statistical software package like stata? I am currently trying to investigate the ...
4 votes
1 answer
753 views

When was the last time Magnus Carlsen lost 2 classical games in a row to the same player besides to Wesley So?

Related questions: When was the last time Magnus Carlsen lost 3 classical games in a row besides to Wesley So? When was the last time Magnus Carlsen lost 2 classical games in a row to the same ...
1 vote
0 answers
99 views

How common are tripled pawns in chess games?

Recently I played a nice OTB game where I sacked a pawn to triple my enemy's pawns, and won convincingly. Having played thousands of games online and dozens OTB, I somehow fail to remember any other ...
3 votes
2 answers
8k views

FIDE Rating Distribution

This answer has a link to the Lichess blitz rating distribution which looks like this: It looks like a good approximation to a normal distribution, perhaps slightly skewed to the upper half, and has ...
4 votes
1 answer
234 views

Ecological footprint of chess

Chess must be a very "green" sport, the resource demand is minimal. But then, lately online chess is in vogue, and servers eat amps. Any estimation how much energy online chess is consuming ...
0 votes
0 answers
56 views

Who is the first woman to play USCF rated chess in all 50 US states?

On X/Twitter this tweet appeared by somebody called Megan: Today was a historic day for my #chess life. I wrapped up the 50 states quest in Alaska, with Fairbanks Chess Club's #NationalChessDay G/15 ...
3 votes
4 answers
369 views

En passant capture - statistically advantageous?

If anyone is doing chess score analysis (on say, last 10 years of competitive games), I wonder if it's identifiable how many times en passant (EP) capture could have been played vs how many times it ...
0 votes
1 answer
189 views

How rare are double forks in high-level games?

I was playing a blitz game, when I saw my chance to produce an amusing position, to which my opponent unknowingly obliged; I was able to fork their rooks with my queen and rook simultaneously. [Title &...
4 votes
2 answers
4k views

List of female chess players by peak FIDE rating

Update: The answer currently doesn't include countries and other trivia like in the original one. Please consider posting an answer with at least the countries or editing current answer to include ...
1 vote
2 answers
660 views

List of female chess players by peak FIDE rating with countries?

same question as here but with countries please. hopefully we can have a list as close to the original wiki page as possible. I'll start: 1 - Hungary - Judit Polgar - 2735 - 2005-07 - 1976 - N/A - ...
-2 votes
1 answer
269 views

According to Wikipedia, only three women have EVER been top 100 in chess. How many men have ever been top 100?

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women_in_chess "Three women, Maia Chiburdanidze, Polgár, and Hou Yifan, have been ranked in the world's top 100 players." That is, right now, there are not ...
5 votes
1 answer
220 views

Which officer type makes (on average) the most moves in a chess game?

I suppose K the least (endgame will up the ante for K, but not that many games will reach the endgame) and N the most (the knight is slow in regrouping) but I don't have access to a megabase. I expect ...
28 votes
2 answers
1k views

How do age and initial rating correlate to decline in playing strength with age?

The current Rausis phone cheating scandal saw a player with an initial rating of about 2500 in his 50's improve by about 200 rating points in 6 years. This improvement was remarkable because older ...
4 votes
0 answers
119 views

How often do strong master level players (2400+) make illegal moves?

In the latest podcast from the Chicken Chess Club, Laurent Fressinet admitted that in his latest tournament, the French rapid and blitz championships, he made an illegal move. He asked the other two ...
0 votes
1 answer
219 views

Classical world championship where someone lost 3 games in a row, COUNTING draws?

Obviously NOT counting draws there are a lot eg Nepo lost 4-0 total to Magnus in the 2021 WCC so removing the draws, there's that. In the 2019 WFRCC, which was indeed classical, Magnus Carlsen lost to ...
4 votes
1 answer
234 views

What are the most popular blunders in the opening stage?

According to the data base at lichess, after 1. d4 Nf6 2. c4 e5 3. dxe5 Ng4 4. Bf4 Nc6 5. Nf3 Bb4+ 6. Nbd2 Qe7 7. a3 Ngxe5, 8. axb4?? has been played 27,409 times (including played by a player with a ...
9 votes
2 answers
381 views

Does the prize distribution in open and women-only competitions incentivize the top women to avoid playing in open competitions?

Recently the Russian superfinal ended. This tournament had an open section and a women's section. One of the top Russian women, Aleksandra Goryachkina, played in the open section where she finished ...
1 vote
1 answer
135 views

Most combative head-to-head World Championships?

Chess.com keep tweeting about how combative this match is. 3 out of 5 games so far have been decisive, more than any other match in the last 10 years. Of course, us old timers remember Reykjavik 1972 ...
7 votes
1 answer
150 views

Centipawn Loss per opening

Centipawn loss isn't sufficient to reflect the playing strength of a player, as some positions are more complex to play than others. A centipawn loss of 20 is more challenging to reach in a wild King'...
7 votes
1 answer
564 views

How do you set up two engines to play each other on a cloud server?

I am exploring a semi-novel idea in the London system, where I play 2...b5!? after 1. d4 Nf6 2. Bf4 A main line goes 3.Nf3 Bb7 4.e3 and now: 4...a6 5.Bd3 e6 or Nh5 4...a6 5.c4 bxc4/b4 4...b4 5.Bd3 e6/...
1 vote
0 answers
188 views

How often do super GMs blunder mate in 1?

Yesterday (5th April 2023) Nakamura blundered a pretty mate in 1 against Caruana in the Chessable Masters: [Title "Caruana - Nakamura, Chessable Masters 2023"] [fen "Rb6/5kp1/8/1r1P3P/...
4 votes
1 answer
970 views

Who are the top 10 youngest players to reach a FIDE standard rating of 2200?

In age order of achieving the rating, who are the 10 youngest players to reach 2200 standard FIDE rating? Prag and Karjakin obviously feature, but who else?
0 votes
1 answer
127 views

Armageddon: How much more desirable is black in chess than chess960 based on airthings masters 2023 vs 2022 WFRCC?

All games in question are 15 minutes. In the 4 armageddon games in the 2022 (inaugural rapid, not the real, classical) WFRCC (both qualifiers and final 8), the Black winning bids are: 13,13,11:10,11:...
2 votes
4 answers
378 views

Why is the outdated Steinitz Defense still so popular among non-professionals?

The Steinitz Defense is generally considered outdated by modern professional players. However, according to the Lichess Database, the move 3... d6 is actually the second most popular choice after 1.e4 ...
0 votes
1 answer
284 views

Online Neustadtl Sonneborn–Berger score?

Where can I find a site that calculates Neustadtl Sonneborn–Berger score (or Sonneborn–Berger score or whatever) given a cross-table? Closest I found is this. Eg Given the cross-table (implied from ...
-1 votes
1 answer
115 views

Non-linearity in Armageddon bidding: Ostensibly, you give up more time in higher time control

Note: In the ff I assume everyone bids for black, not white. In blitz (below 10min) : I see often there's a 5min vs 4min predetermined time. No idea if this is fair, but let's pretend arguendo players ...
-1 votes
1 answer
135 views

Is Armageddon always without increment?

Robert Hess said tells Danya that no increment influences why Robert prefers white to black in Armageddon chess960. Of course it really depends on the bid, but I guess Robert would want a lower bid ...
1 vote
1 answer
167 views

Why would I bid for white in armageddon in chess960?

Related: Regular chess: Why would I bid for white in armageddon (in regular chess)? Chess960: Why would I bid for white in armageddon in chess960? Were there armageddons where white gets lower time or ...
-2 votes
1 answer
469 views

Why would I bid for white in armageddon (in regular chess)?

Related: Regular chess: Why would I bid for white in armageddon (in regular chess)? Chess960: Why would I bid for white in armageddon in chess960? Were there armageddons where white gets lower time or ...
-1 votes
1 answer
476 views

What is white's increased advantage in chess90 as compared to chess870? (Chess960 can be split into 2 subsets, chess90 and chess870)

Here, it is shown 90 of 960 positions involve having to move a rook on 1 side in order to castle on the other side (unless the rook is somehow captured or something). These 90 positions come from 18 ...
0 votes
1 answer
111 views

Armageddon: Does / Should White have a lower advantage in chess960 compared to chess?

I'm not (necessarily) asking which colour is more favoured in armageddon chess960. I'm asking that given however much or little white has an advantage of armageddon chess, is this advantage lower in ...
1 vote
2 answers
142 views

Is armageddon more fair if bids aren't 1-time only?

As pointed out by GeneM here Armageddon Chess is a fair tie-break system only if the two players bid for how much time Black should have. Question: But is it actually more fair if the bids are the ...
10 votes
5 answers
12k views

Which side has the advantage in an Armageddon tiebreak game?

It is generally considered that white has better chances of winning in chess. This is due to white's initiative, since white gets to move first. The difference in chances seems to get more significant,...
-1 votes
2 answers
934 views

Why don't these statistics disprove white's supposed larger (practical?) advantage in chess960?

I've read that, at least theoretically, white has a larger advantage in 9LX as compared to chess. (See appendix.) This seems to be assumed in practice to the point that in some 9LX tournaments, such ...
17 votes
3 answers
5k views

Are there statistics on the results of armageddon games at the GM level?

I've tried finding statistics on the results of competitive armageddon games played at a high level (say, GM level), but to no avail. Evidently, these statistics must exist, as for example FIDE ...
4 votes
1 answer
218 views

How does the average standard FIDE rating vary by age and sex?

In my answer to this question regarding requirements for female titles I quoted the mean and standard deviation for male and female ratings for standard chess in the then current FIDE rating list. ...
22 votes
2 answers
6k views

Did the Queen's Gambit series lead to an increased popularity of the Queen's Gambit opening?

A number of sources have commented on the impact of the Queen's Gambit series on the chess world, usually referring to online chess: The Queen’s Gambit, the Chess Boom, and the Future of Chess How ...
7 votes
1 answer
946 views

Relation between ratings for Chess960 and standard chess

Is there any relation or any attempt at discovering a relation between Chess960 ratings and standard chess ratings? This can be for GMs, for (any)M's, for pro players, or for all players on lichess/...
0 votes
0 answers
93 views

Hikaru on chess960: Have there been more Najdorf or Dragon games in the past decade?

From Wikipedia: Hikaru in 2014 on chess960: (emphasis added) I think chess960 is great as it is simply pure intuition and understanding without theory or computers. In my opinion, a lot depends on ...
-5 votes
3 answers
477 views

How do I find data to determine records like the youngest person to obtain a certain title?

A. Background: Under Mobeus Zoom's suggestion here: List of records for youngest superGMs since 1950? (or 1970 or whenever FIDE started rating people. or basically after 2700s after Fischer) (this is ...
1 vote
2 answers
230 views

Percentage of kids that "stay"

Just for fun, I'm going through my ancient games. Who? Never heard of? Vanishville? As a kids trainer I of course know that only a tiny percentage will become "professionals" (and I merely ...
3 votes
1 answer
318 views

Opening and endgame experts in chess

There are famous players who are called endgame experts ("opening expert" IMHO is less used), e.g. Rubinstein. Now obviously, to be a GM, you have to know a bit of all game phases, and a ...

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