Questions tagged [statistics]

Questions about game statistics, e.g. the winning percentage of a "line," the probability of some event occurring in a game, or player statistics.

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2 votes
1 answer
231 views

Opening and endgame experts in chess

There are famous players who are called endgame experts ("opening expert" IMHO is less used), e.g. Rubinstein. Now obviously, to be a GM, you have to know a bit of all game phases, and a ...
15 votes
3 answers
3k views

Who is/was the lowest ranked World Chess Champion?

Boris Gelfand has just won the 7th of 12 games (all previous drawn) in the FIDE World Championship match against the current holder of the title Viswanathan Anand. This puts him in a good position to ...
36 votes
3 answers
3k views

Do strong players move their pieces with different relative frequencies than weak players?

This question is an offshoot of Ramon Snir's earlier one about how often different types of pieces get moved, on average, in a game of chess. My question: Do the relative numbers of moves for the ...
11 votes
8 answers
7k views

Bishop vs Knight

I read in a book written by Fischer about piece values, and he said that a knight is worth 3 pawns, and a bishop is worth 3,25 pawns. I know that in closed positions knights are better, and I have ...
9 votes
3 answers
464 views

What's the average total time for a game of bullet chess?

Bullet chess gives each player 1 minute to make all their moves - if that minute passes and they haven't checkmated their opponent, they lose (or if insufficient material, a draw). Since chess has 2 ...
8 votes
1 answer
248 views

Correlation between opening usage

Is there statistical analysis of which openings players play as Black when they play a certain opening as White and vice versa? For example, is it the case that people that play 1. ..c6, often leading ...
5 votes
1 answer
846 views

Is hyperbullet or bullet more common in online gameplay?

On Lichess, the shortest form of bullet is named hyperbullet. It is essentially 30-second chess. Standard bullet is 1 to 3 minutes. It is difficult to assess popularity without invoking opinion. ...
7 votes
0 answers
142 views

Has anyone done a correlation of castling with winning and losing?

I saw this question: How often does castling occur in grandmaster games? The statistics are interesting. The answer states that they do so about 90% of their games. So, the move seems pretty valuable....
6 votes
1 answer
481 views

Relation between ratings for Chess960 and standard chess

Is there any relation or any attempt at discovering a relation between Chess960 ratings and standard chess ratings? This can be for GMs, for (any)M's, for pro players, or for all players on lichess/...
3 votes
2 answers
1k views

FIDE Rating Distribution

This answer has a link to the Lichess blitz rating distribution which looks like this: It looks like a good approximation to a normal distribution, perhaps slightly skewed to the upper half, and has ...
-6 votes
3 answers
369 views

How do I find data to determine records like the youngest person to obtain a certain title?

A. Background: Under Mobeus Zoom's suggestion here: List of records for youngest superGMs since 1950? (or 1970 or whenever FIDE started rating people. or basically after 2700s after Fischer) (this is ...
-4 votes
3 answers
515 views

On average, how many pawns are there at the start of the endgame?

Question: On average, how many pawns are there at the start of the endgame? To answer: You can choose your definition of the endgame as long as you can show a credible reference that supports your ...
7 votes
1 answer
854 views

Can the "bishop pair advantage" be supported by statistics?

I heard a lot about the advantage of having a bishop pair and I am interested in the statistics about this. More specifically, if we collect a huge number of games (master games only, or games ...
4 votes
1 answer
257 views

Rating system (glicko, elo, etc): is 'predict the outcome of games' the same thing as 'reduce the number of upsets'?

From Lichess page 'Chess rating systems': Question: Which rating system is best? Answer: The purpose of rating systems is to predict the outcome of games. Therefore, they can be objectively better ...
-1 votes
2 answers
428 views

Why don't these statistics disprove white's supposed larger (practical?) advantage in chess960?

I've read that, at least theoretically, white has a larger advantage in 9LX as compared to chess. (See appendix.) This seems to be assumed in practice to the point that in some 9LX tournaments, such ...
-2 votes
1 answer
180 views

What is white's increased advantage in chess90 as compared to chess870? (Chess960 can be split into 2 subsets, chess90 and chess870)

Here, it is shown 90 of 960 positions involve having to move a rook on 1 side in order to castle on the other side (unless the rook is somehow captured or something). These 90 positions come from 18 ...
1 vote
1 answer
166 views

Average number of moves until checkmate for two players of unequal strenth

Suppose a game is played, until checkmate, between players of unequal strength, say 1800 vs 2800. What would be the average number of moves be for, say, 1000 games? I also ponder 2000 vs 2800 and 2200 ...
5 votes
1 answer
709 views

Generalise 'grandmaster games (...) castle opposite sides and the queenside players loses?' to finding games based on themes

I would like to generalise What are examples of grandmaster games where both Black and White castle opposite sides and the queenside players loses? Question: Is there a way I can search this up myself?...
1 vote
1 answer
128 views

As GMs get older, does their age affect their Classical, Rapid and Blitz ratings equally?

As GMs age beyond their prime, their ratings will likely drop in Classical, Rapid and Blitz chess. If we compare the mean Elo ratings of older and younger GMs across all 3 time controls, does it show ...
2 votes
1 answer
96 views

An abstract Top 1 player rating vs time

How the highest Elo rating has been changing over time? Is there such an abstract data? Preferably FIDE rating. I've been trying to find a graph or a table, but all I can find is a list of peak ...
-3 votes
1 answer
165 views

List of records for youngest superWGMs since 1950?

On Wiki, we have a list for List of youngest grandmasters since 1950. What about superWGMs (any female player who has reached 2500+ or has become GM, whether or not they were actual WGMs so as to ...
3 votes
1 answer
229 views

What are examples of grandmaster games where both Black and White castle opposite sides and the queenside players loses?

I want to become better at attacking my opponent's king when they castle queenside. What are some grandmaster games where the player who castles queenside gets mated or loses due to a powerful attack ...
5 votes
1 answer
200 views

Distribution of Elo ratings

Danger! Only for math buffs! As we all know, Elo is Gaussian. In theory. Except it isn't. But my question is not about that distribution. Your Elo might also list a second number: the number of ...
0 votes
1 answer
121 views

What's the idea of 'all rook endgames are drawn' ? i think opposite coloured bishop endgames and even queen endgames are more drawish

Quote: 'all rook endgames are drawn', 'All rook endings are drawn' or 'All rook and pawn endings are drawn.' For queen endgames, Karsten Müller even gives a way of visualising this (not quite Karsten ...
3 votes
2 answers
2k views

Are all female grandmasters alive (as of the date of this post, 2021Sep01)?

Really female GMs and not WGMs. I notice here there's a 'deceased' list for female IMs but none for female GMs. Is it really the case that there are only 38 females awarded GM title in history and ...
3 votes
7 answers
3k views

How well does Elo rating estimate a player's strength?

Edit (3 March 2014): Proposal: strength is the real and rating is the model that estimates it. Question: How well does Elo rating estimate a player's strength? Bonus question: What happens if you ...
0 votes
1 answer
169 views

What is the mean and standard deviation for men's and then women's standard FIDE ratings for those 2000 and above?

From this answer, the unconditional means and standard deviations are Female Mean = 1505, standard deviation = 339 Male Mean = 1675, standard deviation = 346 What about the case for ratings of 2000+ ? ...
-4 votes
2 answers
341 views

List of records for youngest WCMs (woman candidate masters) since 1950? [duplicate]

Re the close: If it was really a duplicate then why didn't Brian Towers♦ answer on the other post? Checkmate! On Wiki, we have the List of youngest grandmasters since 1950. What about WCMs (woman ...
-2 votes
1 answer
182 views

List of records for youngest female grandmasters since 1950?

On Wiki, we have a list for List of youngest grandmasters since 1950. What about female GMs (really female GMs and not WGMs) instead of GMs? I guess the list ends with Judit Polgar, Koneru Humpy and ...
-1 votes
1 answer
236 views

List of records for youngest WFMs (woman FIDE masters) since 1950 (or whenever)? [duplicate]

On Wiki, we have the List of youngest grandmasters since 1950. What about WFMs (woman FIDE masters) instead of GMs? Note 1: I really mean to ask about WFMs (females who obtain the female exclusive ...
-2 votes
1 answer
184 views

List of records for youngest female international masters since 1950? [duplicate]

Note: I really mean female IMs and not WIMs All IM version: List of records for youngest international masters since 1950? WIM version: List of records for youngest WIMs (woman international masters) ...
6 votes
1 answer
313 views

Winning percentage (white win/draw/black win) in chess960/9LX in 2021?

How does the winning percentage (white win/draw/black win) in chess 960 (Fischer random) compare to that of regular chess? The above was asked here: Winning percentage in chess 960. I would like to ...
-1 votes
1 answer
172 views

List of records for the youngest FIDE masters since 1950?

Edit based on answer given by blunderchess1236 awhile ago: I'm not looking for just 1 person like who most recently attained the youngest (Alekhine Nouri). I'm asking also who held the record for ...
28 votes
5 answers
7k views

Are chess players getting better, given the same rating?

Chess ratings are a relative thing at a particular time, just like boxing. It is not absolute, compared to weightlifting for example, in which the records keep getting broken. How would say a 1700 ...
-4 votes
2 answers
408 views

List of records for youngest superGMs since 1950? (or 1970 or whenever FIDE started rating people. or basically after 2700s after Fischer)

On Wiki, we have the List of youngest grandmasters since 1950. What about superGMs (defined anyone who has reached 2700+ peak FIDE standard) instead of GMs: where can I find a list for the youngest to ...
5 votes
3 answers
383 views

What is the probability that a position has been played before?

When reading annotated games from GMs, I sometimes find annotations such as "This was tried by XXX in 1975 vs YYY". Such annotations are sometimes found very deeply in the game, sometimes past move 20....
5 votes
1 answer
594 views

At what age do master level players (2200+) reach their peak?

We are surprised that players like Boris Gelfand and Vishy Anand can/could still play with the best in the world in their 40's and 50's. Are we right to be surprised? On average at what age do strong ...
0 votes
0 answers
174 views

What is the most number of blunders in a 2100+ game?

Obviously any move (starting at a given position) may be a blunder, see Kh3 Ra4 Nf5 - Kh1 Rf2 where both sides may miss a mate in one until kingdom come. It might be amusing to watch two engines ...
6 votes
2 answers
238 views

Reasons for losing

Wouldn't be surprise if this is a duplicate (related even more related), but: Obviously there are two main ways to lose a game: Blundering it away in a single move or be slowly crushed by a better ...
1 vote
2 answers
328 views

List of female chess players by peak FIDE rating with countries?

same question as here but with countries please. hopefully we can have a list as close to the original wiki page as possible. I'll start: 1 - Hungary - Judit Polgar - 2735 - 2005-07 - 1976 - N/A - ...
0 votes
1 answer
150 views

List of female chess players by their peak FIDE rapid rating

Similar to these questions: List of female chess players by peak FIDE rating List of female chess players by peak FIDE rating with countries? List of chess players by their peak FIDE blitz rating ...
4 votes
1 answer
1k views

List of female chess players by peak FIDE rating

Update: The answer currently doesn't include countries and other trivia like in the original one. Please consider posting an answer with at least the countries or editing current answer to include ...
4 votes
1 answer
583 views

List of chess players by their peak FIDE blitz rating

I've come across a list of the highest FIDE ratings ever achieved by all 2700+ players in the 2700chess.com: This shows all the players above 2700 in classical ordered by their FIDE peak rating. It ...
3 votes
1 answer
126 views

List of female chess players by their peak FIDE blitz rating

Similar to these: List of female chess players by peak FIDE rating List of female chess players by peak FIDE rating with countries? List of chess players by their peak FIDE blitz rating List of ...
2 votes
1 answer
473 views

List of chess players by their peak FIDE rapid rating

Similar to these: List of female chess players by peak FIDE rating List of female chess players by peak FIDE rating with countries? List of chess players by their peak FIDE blitz rating List of ...
8 votes
2 answers
191 views

Is there any website that shows which opening a certain player struggles against?

I just thought that it would be an interesting statistic to know which openings players like Carlsen and Fischer lost most against. Are there any websites that give these statistics?
3 votes
0 answers
213 views

The most often played chess game

Offhand, I say the Shepherd's Mate. But let us just consider "serious" tournament play. Still, the game must be rather short to be repeated extremely often. Could be a "Will they ever ...
4 votes
1 answer
231 views

When playing a two-game match, is it better to have white in the first game?

Many rapid and blitz tournaments use a multigame match system in the elimination rounds. What statistics are there on how frequently the player with White in the first game wins? Is there a ...
3 votes
0 answers
110 views

Number of games ever played in history?

Obviously, an exact answer can't be given, but we can't count all electrons in the universe either and physicists still gave an answer probably correct by an order of magnitude. Let's specify: Only ...
8 votes
1 answer
256 views

Why do you see peaks on the elo distribution?

I was observing the elo distribution in Lichess and noticed peaks around rounded numbers elos ratings for medium to high rated players. This is consistent in Bullet, Blitz, Rapid games and not so much ...