Questions tagged [statistics]

Questions about game statistics, e.g. the winning percentage of a "line," the probability of some event occurring in a game, or player statistics.

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4
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3answers
898 views

Is it true that amateur players tend to choose the advance variation after 1. e4 c6 2. d4 d5?

My database shows that after 1. e4 c6 2. d4 d5, white has the following main variations: Nc3 exd5 e5 and they are equally popular among professional players. However, from my experience playing ...
2
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1answer
57 views

Getting wrong results in perft stats with checks and mates

The perft count works well after testing with many positions from epd files from the web Now I want to see some perft stats like this one: https://www.chessprogramming.org/Perft_Results, from the ...
3
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1answer
59 views

As we come out of lockdown, how much FIDE rated chess was played in June 2020?

I asked a similar question about chess during lockdown. Now that some countries are coming out of lockdown and chess is resuming FIDE has published data for June. NB I looked at May data and as far as ...
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1answer
169 views

What percentage of the time does White win in the Lomonosov tablebase?

Studies show a slight advantage for White for having the first move. In the tablebase of trillions of 7-piece endgames, with White to move, how many of those endgames end up as wins, how many as ...
3
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1answer
165 views

How often do grandmasters fail to mate soon when mate in five or less is possible?

The recent question, How often do grandmasters miss checkmate? , turned out to be a bit broad. This question asks about a simple subset of that one, which I hope can be answered with some precision. ...
19
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4answers
5k views

How often do grandmasters miss checkmate?

Although top players are extremely good at finding checkmate, the number of permutations of moves in just 3 moves can be hundreds of thousands, and the farther out the possible mate (e.g. mate in 4, ...
4
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1answer
637 views

By how much does being told what piece to move improve one's Elo?

Here is a (rather humorous) game in which a 900 player is told by a much higher rated player only which kind of piece to move (e.g. along the lines of "bishop", not "light square bishop"). Is it ...
6
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1answer
182 views

What is the typical move prediction accuracy of human chess grandmasters?

I couldn't find any data about the percentage of moves that a typical human grandmaster would be able to predict in games of other human grandmasters. To clarify my definition of accuracy: The ...
4
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2answers
370 views

How much FIDE rated chess was played in April 2020?

FIDE has just published the May 2020 rating list which brings the ratings up to date for games played in April. The rating file can be downloaded from the FIDE download page. Many countries have ...
13
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2answers
1k views

Statistics on rejected draw offers

I am wondering if there are any statistics on rejected draw offers (say of GM games). Namely, what are the following percentages of the following results when a draw offer is declined: The side that ...
5
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2answers
163 views

How to exploit an opponent must-win situation

I am 1.5 points clear of the field, and my last-round opponent is in a must-win situation for a prize. Is there a mathematically/statistically proven way for me to take advantage of this state of ...
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1answer
82 views

Are there any papers that highlight the problems with rating systems?

Ratings are a paradox. Mathematically they seem to dependent on other factors than ability. Yet people are obsessed with their rating as if it defines them as a person somehow. Are their any ...
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2answers
96 views

What is the average speed in tournaments for USFC rapid chess ratings?

Rapid ratings cover a very wide range of time controls and bump up against regular (where games are dual rated) as well as blitz time controls. What is the average time for USCF rapid games that are ...
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2answers
70 views

Is there an analysis of World Champions' games that shows the statistics of their game?

Is there an analysis of World Champion games, with the help of engines, that shows statistics like percentage of best moves played, blunders made, creative moves which computers can only see at high ...
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2answers
68 views

Are there any moves that are more popular in databases of GM games but are objectively inferior?

Usually in a particular opening position, if move A is more popular (in GM games) than move B, then either move A is objectively better than move B, or move A is equally good as move B. Are there ...
13
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5answers
5k views

Why have engines not increased top rated chess players' Elo?

The arrival of strong chess engines as Stockfish, Houdini or Rybka allow top players to deeply prepare lines in openings or to study better endgames. I would expect a rating increase of top players. ...
2
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1answer
96 views

Knight promotion percentages

Knight promotion is the second most common promotion. Most of the time it is to give an otherwise ungivable check. But it doesn’t always come with check. Statiscally speaking, what percentage of ...
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3answers
1k views

Why I did not see the first-mover advantage in my game history? [closed]

I have played over a thousand blitz games at chess.com and here are the results: I failed to notice any obvious difference between white and black. In other word, I do not see the the first-mover ...
2
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2answers
234 views

In Swiss tournaments, is it common to play weaker players when playing White?

I was looking at the statistics for my tournament games in SCID, and found something surprising. When I played opponents rated under 1000, 13 out of 15 times I've had White. Conversely, when I played ...
2
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1answer
215 views

Draw rates in classical chess between elite players?

I'm looking for detailed statistics exhibiting draw rate for elite players. I did find this and this publications, however, they only contain aggregated data for 2600+ players, and arrive at a figure ...
6
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4answers
475 views

Is there a low-end ELO Deflation?

I've heard often about Elo Inflation among the top chess players, meaning that a player rated 2650 Elo nowadays is weaker compared to a player rated 2650 Elo player 10 years ago. I'm curious if there'...
27
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2answers
6k views

How often does castling occur in grandmaster games?

May I know how to find in all grandmaster games, what the percentage of each of the following is? Kingside castling Queenside castling Never castled by the end of the game but still has the right to ...
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6answers
1k views

Is my low blitz game drawing rate at www.chess.com an indicator that I am weak in chess?

I have played 630 blitz game at chess.com and only 10.3% of my games are draw; see the diagram. When I play black, my drawing rate is slightly higher than my drawing rate playing white. This is ...
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3answers
2k views

What is the draw frequency for 3 consecutive games (same players; amateur level)?

In Mr. Robot (TV series) episode "eps2.2_init_1.asec", Elliot and Mr. Robot drew 3 consecutive chess games. They remark it's impossible. The odds of that are Impossible. As far as TV shows go, Mr. ...
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6answers
245 views

In the opening stage, can we determine that one move is better than another by looking at winning percentage?

After 1.c4 Nf6 2. Nc3 g6, thousands of games have been played with the following two moves of white: 3.g3 and 3.e4. It seems that the winning percentage suggested that 3.e4 is clearly better than 3....
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3answers
837 views

What is the average number of legal moves per turn?

For example in the first turn there are 20 possible legal moves (16 pawn moves and 4 knights moves). This number increases in the middlegame and then decreases in the Endgame. Are there some ...
4
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1answer
935 views

Oscillating Stockfish Evaluation on Laptop

I'm using stockfish-9-bmi2 on my laptop to provide me move by move evaluation of games. I've set Stockfish to evaluate to depth = 25 plys. I find that the evaluation provided oscillates move-on-move ...
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2answers
1k views

Are there statistics on the results of armageddon games at the GM level?

I've tried finding statistics on the results of competitive armageddon games played at a high level (say, GM level), but to no avail. Evidently, these statistics must exist, as for example FIDE ...
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2answers
104 views

Can an Optimal Stopping strategy be applied to search functions?

Can the solution to the famous Secretary Problem be applied to the search function of a chess engine? Rejecting the first 37% moves and choosing the best one after that,or maybe even just checking the ...
9
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1answer
251 views

Why are games more likely to last 60, 80 and 120 moves?

I've downloaded and parsed the king-base chess database (about 1.5 million games) and am looking at distribution of moves for games. When plotting the distribution for different outcomes, I see spikes ...
2
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3answers
191 views

Database program for statistics about mistakes

I wonder if there is an application that will help with statistics for my own games. Of course - there are applications (eg. Scid, Chessbase) that allow to make some statistics out of database - but ...
4
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1answer
82 views

What kind of statistics should I run on a database? [closed]

I have written a python script to verify the strategical rule of "controlling the center". I have parsed the free 2.2 million games database (it takes about 5 minutes) and I have found that the ...
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1answer
2k views

What is the number of chess position for each move? [closed]

I have read some articles that chess has a numbers of 10 to power of 120. Can some one can throw lights to it: White 1st move: No of Position White 2nd move: No of Position till White 72nd move: No ...
4
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1answer
496 views

Winning percentage in chess 960

How does the winning percentage (white win/draw/black win) in chess 960 (Fischer random) compare to that of regular chess? Are there more white wins, fewer draws,...?
4
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1answer
588 views

Improvement of chess engines over time

Chess engine strength has increased considerably over time due to increase of computer strength, but also improvement in algorithms/parameters. Is there any statistics or graph out there which shows ...
5
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1answer
567 views

Where can I find a rarity table of chess player ratings? [duplicate]

Now it's fine either as percentage of all FIDE players registered or just as number itself (like either 1/100k players are rated above X, or 23 players rated above X, respectively). Let's say by ...
6
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1answer
254 views

Draws by game number in championship matches

Some commentators have expressed surprise at the two relatively bland draws to open out the most recent (Carlsen-Karjakin) World Championships. I'm wondering whether there's been any study as to ...
2
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1answer
197 views

Carlsen vs Karjakin individual encounter results statistics so far?

I wonder how many times Carlsen and Karjakin played so far and who won the more number of games. Any idea?
5
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2answers
286 views

Why is 7. f3 so ubiquitous in the Yugoslav Sicilian?

I'm a mid-level player just starting to systematically study openings, and I'm wondering why it is that after the signature Yugoslav initiation 6. Be3 by White, and the certain follow-up 6. ... Bg7, ...
4
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1answer
764 views

Does engine score correlate with winning chances?

I was wondering if there is a statistical or probabilistic (at least approximate) way of looking at a score of a chess position of a certain fixed engine, say "crafty version 5" for example. i.e. ...
2
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1answer
171 views

Statistical Right Handedness Bias in Move Selection?

It seems clear to me that there must be a statistical bias in the move selection of master level games in relation to the natural "hand" of the move, right or left. Let me explain. For the sake of ...
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2answers
1k views

If the Sicilian is so strong, why do people still play e4 in competitions?

1.d4 is a statistically more successful opening for white due to the high success rate of the Sicilian defence against 1.e4 I understand it's fun to play different openings, but at the highest level, ...
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2answers
528 views

chess win expectancy by material difference table or calculator

Houdini Chess engine is said to have a calibrated evaluation in which engine scores correlate directly with the win expectancy in the position. A +1.00 pawn advantage gives a 80% chance of winning the ...
2
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1answer
226 views

Live viewers for top chess events

What is the average number of live viewers (online and TV) for top chess events like the world championship match and the candidates tournament? Are there some statistics publicly available?
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1answer
193 views

How to see average game length for specific chess opening (number of moves)?

How to see average game lenght for specific chess opening? Is there some chess database which allow me to see specific opening game length? For example: Sicilian defense (average length is: 80.5) ...
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2answers
92 views

Meaning of move stats in opening databases

I naively thought that if I picked the biggest winning move (for example using white) in the database and kept picking moves that white would always win, but at some point the advantage for white ...
13
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1answer
363 views

What features can I add to this FIDE chess application? (edits made 2/25)

EDIT: Most of the app is completed. Now all I have to complete is implementation of FIDE arbiters, a dynamic 3d plot (right now it only has 3 variables being plotted, no inputs affect it), adding more ...
2
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4answers
2k views

Statistically, what is the best opening?

Statistically, what opening has white won with the most? Such as, 1.e4 e5 2? What is the move that white makes that has won the most games?
2
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1answer
459 views

What's the average piece density?

In a position, the piece density is equal to the total number of pieces on the board (Whites pieces + Black pieces) divided by the total number of squares (64). At the beginning of every game, the ...
3
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2answers
593 views

What is the percentage of players who are women in the sections where both men and women can play in?

I am NOT asking for the percentage of chess players that are women. I am asking for the percentage of players who are women in the sections where both men and women can play in. That percentage is ...