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Questions tagged [statistics]

Questions about game statistics, e.g. the winning percentage of a "line," the probability of some event occurring in a game, or player statistics.

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Are there statistics on the results of armageddon games at the GM level?

I've tried finding statistics on the results of competitive armageddon games played at a high level (say, GM level), but to no avail. Evidently, these statistics must exist, as for example FIDE ...
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2answers
88 views

Can an Optimal Stopping strategy be applied to search functions?

Can the solution to the famous Secretary Problem be applied to the search function of a chess engine? Rejecting the first 37% moves and choosing the best one after that,or maybe even just checking the ...
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1answer
173 views

Why are games more likely to last 60, 80 and 120 moves?

I've downloaded and parsed the king-base chess database (about 1.5 million games) and am looking at distribution of moves for games. When plotting the distribution for different outcomes, I see spikes ...
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3answers
140 views

Database program for statistics about mistakes

I wonder if there is an application that will help with statistics for my own games. Of course - there are applications (eg. Scid, Chessbase) that allow to make some statistics out of database - but ...
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1answer
77 views

What kind of statistics should I run on a database? [closed]

I have written a python script to verify the strategical rule of "controlling the center". I have parsed the free 2.2 million games database (it takes about 5 minutes) and I have found that the ...
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1answer
367 views

What is the number of chess position for each move? [closed]

I have read some articles that chess has a numbers of 10 to power of 120. Can some one can throw lights to it: White 1st move: No of Position White 2nd move: No of Position till White 72nd move: No ...
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1answer
241 views

Winning percentage in chess 960

How does the winning percentage (white win/draw/black win) in chess 960 (Fischer random) compare to that of regular chess? Are there more white wins, fewer draws,...?
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1answer
369 views

Improvement of chess engines over time

Chess engine strength has increased considerably over time due to increase of computer strength, but also improvement in algorithms/parameters. Is there any statistics or graph out there which shows ...
5
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1answer
298 views

Where can I find a rarity table of chess player ratings? [duplicate]

Now it's fine either as percentage of all FIDE players registered or just as number itself (like either 1/100k players are rated above X, or 23 players rated above X, respectively). Let's say by ...
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1answer
212 views

Draws by game number in championship matches

Some commentators have expressed surprise at the two relatively bland draws to open out the most recent (Carlsen-Karjakin) World Championships. I'm wondering whether there's been any study as to ...
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1answer
152 views

Carlsen vs Karjakin individual encounter results statistics so far?

I wonder how many times Carlsen and Karjakin played so far and who won the more number of games. Any idea?
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2answers
201 views

Why is 7. f3 so ubiquitous in the Yugoslav Sicilian?

I'm a mid-level player just starting to systematically study openings, and I'm wondering why it is that after the signature Yugoslav initiation 6. Be3 by White, and the certain follow-up 6. ... Bg7, ...
3
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1answer
398 views

Does engine score correlate with winning chances?

I was wondering if there is a statistical or probabilistic (at least approximate) way of looking at a score of a chess position of a certain fixed engine, say "crafty version 5" for example. i.e. ...
2
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1answer
140 views

Statistical Right Handedness Bias in Move Selection?

It seems clear to me that there must be a statistical bias in the move selection of master level games in relation to the natural "hand" of the move, right or left. Let me explain. For the sake of ...
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2answers
710 views

If the Sicilian is so strong, why do people still play e4 in competitions?

1.d4 is a statistically more successful opening for white due to the high success rate of the Sicilian defence against 1.e4 I understand it's fun to play different openings, but at the highest level, ...
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2answers
230 views

chess win expectancy by material difference table or calculator

Houdini Chess engine is said to have a calibrated evaluation in which engine scores correlate directly with the win expectancy in the position. A +1.00 pawn advantage gives a 80% chance of winning the ...
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1answer
174 views

Live viewers for top chess events

What is the average number of live viewers (online and TV) for top chess events like the world championship match and the candidates tournament? Are there some statistics publicly available?
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1answer
150 views

How to see average game length for specific chess opening (number of moves)?

How to see average game lenght for specific chess opening? Is there some chess database which allow me to see specific opening game length? For example: Sicilian defense (average length is: 80.5) ...
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2answers
84 views

Meaning of move stats in opening databases

I naively thought that if I picked the biggest winning move (for example using white) in the database and kept picking moves that white would always win, but at some point the advantage for white ...
12
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1answer
270 views

What features can I add to this FIDE chess application? (edits made 2/25)

EDIT: Most of the app is completed. Now all I have to complete is implementation of FIDE arbiters, a dynamic 3d plot (right now it only has 3 variables being plotted, no inputs affect it), adding more ...
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4answers
1k views

Statistically, what is the best opening?

Statistically, what opening has white won with the most? Such as, 1.e4 e5 2? What is the move that white makes that has won the most games?
1
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1answer
297 views

What's the average piece density?

In a position, the piece density is equal to the total number of pieces on the board (Whites pieces + Black pieces) divided by the total number of squares (64). At the beginning of every game, the ...
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2answers
415 views

What is the percentage of players who are women in the sections where both men and women can play in?

I am NOT asking for the percentage of chess players that are women. I am asking for the percentage of players who are women in the sections where both men and women can play in. That percentage is ...
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3answers
196 views

What is the probability that a position has been played before?

When reading annotated games from GMs, I sometimes find annotations such as "This was tried by XXX in 1975 vs YYY". Such annotations are sometimes found very deeply in the game, sometimes past move 20....
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3answers
857 views

What is the average length of a game of chess with only random moves?

The famous Shannon number, 10^120, an estimated lower bound on the number of possible chess games, is based on the assumption that a typical game lasts 40 moves. In games between skilled human ...
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2answers
175 views

What is the percent of players in the top X that are women for different values of X?

I have already found some numbers thanks to this website: http://www.ferimex.com/icc/frl.php?list=0&country=0&title=0&sex=0&year=0&old=0&cat=0&size=9&update=yes Top 50:...
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4answers
548 views

Rating rise: luck or actual increase in playing strength?

The FIDE rating of very active chess players can vary a lot: rating fluctuations of 50 rating points are not unusual. Is there a way to distinguish whether a rating rise/drop can be explained by ...
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1answer
4k views

What is the average age to become a grandmaster?

On average, what is the age of people when they obtain the title of international master or grandmaster? I also wonder how the age distribution looks like.
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6answers
1k views

Bishop vs Knight

I read in a book write by Fischer about piece values, and he said that a knight value 3 pawns, and a bishop values 3,25 pawns. I know that in the close positions knights are better, and I also read in ...
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3answers
610 views

What are the winning chances of every pieces? (6men egtb)

Is there a site or document which shows what the winning chances are of every "Specific Pieces vs. Specific Pieces" endgame? e.g. What are the winning chances of Rook & Bishop vs 2 Knights?
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3answers
691 views

Top player with the lowest drawing rate

Which player of the top 50 has the lowest drawing rate ? Who is it in the top 100 ? And which woman in the top 50 has the lowest drawing rate ?
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9answers
50k views

Is the number of possible chess games infinite?

This question is somewhat related to Can the total number of possible wins/draws/losses be calculated?, but slightly different. There is a recent TV show episode that claims that there are "more ...
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5answers
803 views

In an opening tree on ChessBase, how can we fix the statistics so that transpositions are not taken into account in the total number of games?

In an opening tree (also called "opening explorer" or "openings book") on ChessBase 12, here are the statistics that we get after 1. Nf3 c5 : So it seems that after 1. Nf3 c5 White will play 2. e4 93%...
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1answer
482 views

Is there a list of unsound openings?

Not so long ago I was looking for a comprehensive list of openings (and received an excellent answer with a huge list). Hearing a lot about unsound openings, I am curious whether I can have a ...
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3answers
675 views

Chess Statistics How to?

I am a graduate student studying statistics and I play chess once in a while for fun. I was thinking (just for the fun of it) -- applying some of what I've learned in statistics to chess games: I ...
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3answers
2k views

Which side has the advantage in an Armageddon tiebreak game?

It is generally considered that white has better chances of winning in chess. This is due to white's initiative, since white gets to move first. The difference in chances seems to get more significant,...
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4answers
196 views

What are some common statistical analyses we can run on many games (~20k games)?

I have a list of around 20k games played on a popular online website. I would like to run some statistical analyses on these games. I'm not talking about analysing specific games, but rather finding ...
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6answers
1k views

Does black really have a disadvantage?

Most people say chess is a draw, and it is quite believable, white is but a tempo up, and skill plays a lot of part in the game. But even the most skillful agree that blunders are made, in some games ...
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5answers
1k views

Average number of moves per game

What are the average number of moves per game with regards to what opening has been played?
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1answer
564 views

How many positions are there in n-pieces endgame tablebases for different values of n? [duplicate]

Note that I don't want the exact values, I only need approximations. And I am only interested in small values of n (not more than 12).
3
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1answer
206 views

Chess Olympiad statistics

I have watched some matches played in the chess Olympiad in Tromsø. The majority of the games I watched, one player played the English opening, and usually he won, I haven't seen any French opening ...
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6answers
682 views

Which piece is least likely to be taken?

If one were to analyse a large number of chess games, which specific piece (not type of piece) would be found to be taken the least number of times? And yes, in light of SomePatzer's comment, besides ...
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2answers
144 views

Could you explain me this part of GM Larry Kaufman's article on “The Evaluation of Material Imbalances”?

This is a stupid question that has more to do with English than with chess, so if other people also think it's stupid I can delete it after I get the answer. Since English is not my mother's tongue I ...
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2answers
763 views

Does GM Larry Kaufman's “principle of the redundancy of major pieces” truly exists? Or could this effect be caused by the number of Pawns instead?

The following is an extract from The Evaluation of Material Imbalances by GM Larry Kaufman. I put in bold characters everything that was important for this question. https://www.chess.com/article/...
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2answers
1k views

For long OTB games, what is the percentage of players who have a rating which is below X FIDE Elo?

I am looking for statistics on the FIDE Elo of chess players. I would like to know what is the percentage of players who have a rating which is: Below 1000 Elo Below 800 Elo Below 600 Elo Below 400 ...
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2answers
366 views

Three questions on GM Larry Kaufman's article about the average relative value of the chess pieces

I have three questions related to this article written by GM Larry Kaufman: http://home.comcast.net/~danheisman/Articles/evaluation_of_material_imbalance.htm . Question n°1: Kaufman rounded all his ...
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3answers
955 views

What's the difference between a tempo and a tempi? At the start, how many tempo/tempi is White up? On average, how many tempo/tempi is one Pawn worth?

What's the difference between a tempo and a tempi? At the start, how many tempo/tempi is White up? Half, one, or two? At the start of the game (before White has even made his first move), how many ...
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3answers
1k views

Between 1.d4 and 1.Nf3, what is the White first move that generally leads to the most solid, positional, slow, closed, strategic and quiet positions?

I'm a ~1750 Elo player and I've been thinking of switching my opening repertoire for White. So my question is: between 1.d4 and 1.Nf3, what is the White first move that generally leads to the most ...
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3answers
3k views

Has any other Grandmaster gone as long undefeated as Capablanca?

Between 1916 and 1924, future World Champion J.R. Capablanca (as of 1921) experienced a period of eight years without a single (tournament) defeat. He was then regarded as one of the world's best ...
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1answer
1k views

1. e4, 1. d4, 1. c4, or 1. Nf3? Which opening move has given the greatest scoring percentage for White in World Championship Matches?

Which opening move out of 1. e4, 1. d4, 1. c4 and 1.Nf3 has given the best scoring percentage for White in World Championship matches? What are the percentages?