Questions tagged [statistics]
Questions about game statistics, e.g. the winning percentage of a "line," the probability of some event occurring in a game, or player statistics.
7
votes
3answers
1k views
What is the draw frequency for 3 consecutive games (same players; amateur level)?
In Mr. Robot (TV series) episode "eps2.2_init_1.asec", Elliot and Mr. Robot drew 3 consecutive chess games. They remark it's impossible.
The odds of that are Impossible.
As far as TV shows go, Mr. ...
4
votes
4answers
125 views
In the opening stage, can we determine that one move is better than another by looking at winning percentage?
After 1.c4 Nf6 2. Nc3 g6, thousands of games have been played with the following two moves of white: 3.g3 and 3.e4. It seems that the winning percentage suggested that 3.e4 is clearly better than 3....
2
votes
1answer
148 views
What is the average number of legal moves per turn?
For example in the first turn there are 20 possible legal moves (16 pawn moves and 4 knights moves). This number increases in the middlegame and then decreases in the Endgame.
Are there some ...
5
votes
1answer
776 views
Oscillating Stockfish Evaluation on Laptop
I'm using stockfish-9-bmi2 on my laptop to provide me move by move evaluation of games. I've set Stockfish to evaluate to depth = 25 plys. I find that the evaluation provided oscillates move-on-move ...
8
votes
0answers
243 views
Are there statistics on the results of armageddon games at the GM level?
I've tried finding statistics on the results of competitive armageddon games played at a high level (say, GM level), but to no avail. Evidently, these statistics must exist, as for example FIDE ...
1
vote
2answers
95 views
Can an Optimal Stopping strategy be applied to search functions?
Can the solution to the famous Secretary Problem be applied to the search function of a chess engine? Rejecting the first 37% moves and choosing the best one after that,or maybe even just checking the ...
10
votes
1answer
189 views
Why are games more likely to last 60, 80 and 120 moves?
I've downloaded and parsed the king-base chess database (about 1.5 million games) and am looking at distribution of moves for games. When plotting the distribution for different outcomes, I see spikes ...
2
votes
3answers
151 views
Database program for statistics about mistakes
I wonder if there is an application that will help with statistics for my own games. Of course - there are applications (eg. Scid, Chessbase) that allow to make some statistics out of database - but ...
4
votes
1answer
78 views
What kind of statistics should I run on a database? [closed]
I have written a python script to verify the strategical rule of "controlling the center".
I have parsed the free 2.2 million games database (it takes about 5 minutes) and I have found that the ...
-1
votes
1answer
632 views
What is the number of chess position for each move? [closed]
I have read some articles that chess has a numbers of 10 to power of 120. Can some one can throw lights to it:
White 1st move: No of Position
White 2nd move: No of Position
till
White 72nd move: No ...
5
votes
1answer
313 views
Winning percentage in chess 960
How does the winning percentage (white win/draw/black win) in chess 960 (Fischer random) compare to that of regular chess? Are there more white wins, fewer draws,...?
5
votes
1answer
452 views
Improvement of chess engines over time
Chess engine strength has increased considerably over time due to increase of computer strength, but also improvement in algorithms/parameters.
Is there any statistics or graph out there which shows ...
5
votes
1answer
402 views
Where can I find a rarity table of chess player ratings? [duplicate]
Now it's fine either as percentage of all FIDE players registered or just as number itself (like either 1/100k players are rated above X, or 23 players rated above X, respectively). Let's say by ...
5
votes
1answer
244 views
Draws by game number in championship matches
Some commentators have expressed surprise at the two relatively bland draws to open out the most recent (Carlsen-Karjakin) World Championships. I'm wondering whether there's been any study as to ...
1
vote
1answer
157 views
Carlsen vs Karjakin individual encounter results statistics so far?
I wonder how many times Carlsen and Karjakin played so far and who won the more number of games. Any idea?
5
votes
2answers
210 views
Why is 7. f3 so ubiquitous in the Yugoslav Sicilian?
I'm a mid-level player just starting to systematically study openings, and I'm wondering why it is that after the signature Yugoslav initiation 6. Be3 by White, and the certain follow-up 6. ... Bg7, ...
4
votes
1answer
531 views
Does engine score correlate with winning chances?
I was wondering if there is a statistical or probabilistic (at least approximate) way of looking at a score of a chess position of a certain fixed engine, say "crafty version 5" for example.
i.e. ...
2
votes
1answer
144 views
Statistical Right Handedness Bias in Move Selection?
It seems clear to me that there must be a statistical bias in the move selection of master level games in relation to the natural "hand" of the move, right or left.
Let me explain. For the sake of ...
6
votes
2answers
800 views
If the Sicilian is so strong, why do people still play e4 in competitions?
1.d4 is a statistically more successful opening for white due to the high success rate of the Sicilian defence against 1.e4
I understand it's fun to play different openings, but at the highest level, ...
1
vote
2answers
292 views
chess win expectancy by material difference table or calculator
Houdini Chess engine is said to have a calibrated evaluation in which engine scores correlate directly with the win expectancy in the position. A +1.00 pawn advantage gives a 80% chance of winning the ...
2
votes
1answer
182 views
Live viewers for top chess events
What is the average number of live viewers (online and TV) for top chess events like the world championship match and the candidates tournament? Are there some statistics publicly available?
1
vote
1answer
165 views
How to see average game length for specific chess opening (number of moves)?
How to see average game lenght for specific chess opening?
Is there some chess database which allow me to see specific opening game length?
For example:
Sicilian defense (average length is: 80.5)
...
1
vote
2answers
85 views
Meaning of move stats in opening databases
I naively thought that if I picked the biggest winning move (for example using white) in the database and kept picking moves that white would always win,
but at some point the advantage for white ...
12
votes
1answer
272 views
What features can I add to this FIDE chess application? (edits made 2/25)
EDIT: Most of the app is completed. Now all I have to complete is implementation of FIDE arbiters, a dynamic 3d plot (right now it only has 3 variables being plotted, no inputs affect it), adding more ...
2
votes
4answers
1k views
Statistically, what is the best opening?
Statistically, what opening has white won with the most?
Such as, 1.e4 e5 2?
What is the move that white makes that has won the most games?
1
vote
1answer
337 views
What's the average piece density?
In a position, the piece density is equal to the total number of pieces on the board (Whites pieces + Black pieces) divided by the total number of squares (64).
At the beginning of every game, the ...
3
votes
2answers
491 views
What is the percentage of players who are women in the sections where both men and women can play in?
I am NOT asking for the percentage of chess players that are women.
I am asking for the percentage of players who are women in the sections where both men and women can play in.
That percentage is ...
3
votes
3answers
203 views
What is the probability that a position has been played before?
When reading annotated games from GMs, I sometimes find annotations such as "This was tried by XXX in 1975 vs YYY". Such annotations are sometimes found very deeply in the game, sometimes past move 20....
5
votes
3answers
929 views
What is the average length of a game of chess with only random moves?
The famous Shannon number, 10^120, an estimated lower bound on the number of possible chess games, is based on the assumption that a typical game lasts 40 moves.
In games between skilled human ...
4
votes
2answers
183 views
What is the percent of players in the top X that are women for different values of X?
I have already found some numbers thanks to this website: http://www.ferimex.com/icc/frl.php?list=0&country=0&title=0&sex=0&year=0&old=0&cat=0&size=9&update=yes
Top 50:...
3
votes
4answers
581 views
Rating rise: luck or actual increase in playing strength?
The FIDE rating of very active chess players can vary a lot: rating fluctuations of 50 rating points are not unusual.
Is there a way to distinguish whether a rating rise/drop can be explained by ...
13
votes
1answer
4k views
What is the average age to become a grandmaster?
On average, what is the age of people when they obtain the title of international master or grandmaster? I also wonder how the age distribution looks like.
7
votes
6answers
2k views
Bishop vs Knight
I read in a book write by Fischer about piece values, and he said that a knight value 3 pawns, and a bishop values 3,25 pawns. I know that in the close positions knights are better, and I also read in ...
4
votes
3answers
645 views
What are the winning chances of every pieces? (6men egtb)
Is there a site or document which shows what the winning chances are of every "Specific Pieces vs. Specific Pieces" endgame?
e.g. What are the winning chances of Rook & Bishop vs 2 Knights?
7
votes
3answers
815 views
Top player with the lowest drawing rate
Which player of the top 50 has the lowest drawing rate ? Who is it in the top 100 ?
And which woman in the top 50 has the lowest drawing rate ?
15
votes
9answers
56k views
Is the number of possible chess games infinite?
This question is somewhat related to Can the total number of possible wins/draws/losses be calculated?, but slightly different.
There is a recent TV show episode that claims that there are "more ...
8
votes
5answers
875 views
In an opening tree on ChessBase, how can we fix the statistics so that transpositions are not taken into account in the total number of games?
In an opening tree (also called "opening explorer" or "openings book") on ChessBase 12, here are the statistics that we get after 1. Nf3 c5 :
So it seems that after 1. Nf3 c5 White will play 2. e4 93%...
1
vote
1answer
499 views
Is there a list of unsound openings?
Not so long ago I was looking for a comprehensive list of openings (and received an excellent answer with a huge list). Hearing a lot about unsound openings, I am curious whether I can have a ...
5
votes
3answers
740 views
Chess Statistics How to?
I am a graduate student studying statistics and I play chess once in a while for fun.
I was thinking (just for the fun of it) -- applying some of what I've learned in statistics to chess games: I ...
6
votes
4answers
3k views
Which side has the advantage in an Armageddon tiebreak game?
It is generally considered that white has better chances of winning in chess. This is due to white's initiative, since white gets to move first. The difference in chances seems to get more significant,...
5
votes
4answers
205 views
What are some common statistical analyses we can run on many games (~20k games)?
I have a list of around 20k games played on a popular online website. I would like to run some statistical analyses on these games. I'm not talking about analysing specific games, but rather finding ...
4
votes
6answers
2k views
Does black really have a disadvantage?
Most people say chess is a draw, and it is quite believable, white is but a tempo up, and skill plays a lot of part in the game. But even the most skillful agree that blunders are made, in some games ...
2
votes
5answers
1k views
Average number of moves per game
What are the average number of moves per game with regards to what opening has been played?
3
votes
1answer
638 views
How many positions are there in n-pieces endgame tablebases for different values of n? [duplicate]
Note that I don't want the exact values, I only need approximations. And I am only interested in small values of n (not more than 12).
3
votes
1answer
212 views
Chess Olympiad statistics
I have watched some matches played in the chess Olympiad in Tromsø. The majority of the games I watched, one player played the English opening, and usually he won, I haven't seen any French opening ...
10
votes
6answers
825 views
Which piece is least likely to be taken?
If one were to analyse a large number of chess games, which specific piece (not type of piece) would be found to be taken the least number of times? And yes, in light of SomePatzer's comment, besides ...
4
votes
2answers
159 views
Could you explain me this part of GM Larry Kaufman's article on “The Evaluation of Material Imbalances”?
This is a stupid question that has more to do with English than with chess, so if other people also think it's stupid I can delete it after I get the answer.
Since English is not my mother's tongue I ...
11
votes
2answers
904 views
Does GM Larry Kaufman's “principle of the redundancy of major pieces” truly exists? Or could this effect be caused by the number of Pawns instead?
The following is an extract from The Evaluation of Material Imbalances by GM Larry Kaufman. I put in bold characters everything that was important for this question.
https://www.chess.com/article/...
1
vote
2answers
1k views
For long OTB games, what is the percentage of players who have a rating which is below X FIDE Elo?
I am looking for statistics on the FIDE Elo of chess players.
I would like to know what is the percentage of players who have a rating which is:
Below 1000 Elo
Below 800 Elo
Below 600 Elo
Below 400 ...
5
votes
2answers
385 views
Three questions on GM Larry Kaufman's article about the average relative value of the chess pieces
I have three questions related to this article written by GM Larry Kaufman: http://home.comcast.net/~danheisman/Articles/evaluation_of_material_imbalance.htm
.
Question n°1:
Kaufman rounded all his ...
