Questions tagged [statistics]
Questions about game statistics, e.g. the winning percentage of a "line," the probability of some event occurring in a game, or player statistics.
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Who are the top 10 youngest players to reach a FIDE standard rating of 2200?
In age order of achieving the rating, who are the 10 youngest players to reach 2200 standard FIDE rating? Prag and Karjakin obviously feature, but who else?
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How rare are double forks in high-level games?
I was playing a blitz game, when I saw my chance to produce an amusing position, to which my opponent unknowingly obliged; I was able to fork their rooks with my queen and rook simultaneously.
[Title &...
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Why is the outdated Steinitz Defense still so popular among non-professionals?
The Steinitz Defense is generally considered outdated by modern professional players. However, according to the Lichess Database, the move 3... d6 is actually the second most popular choice after 1.e4 ...
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Classical world championship where someone lost 3 games in a row, COUNTING draws?
Obviously NOT counting draws there are a lot eg Nepo lost 4-0 total to Magnus in the 2021 WCC so removing the draws, there's that.
In the 2019 WFRCC, which was indeed classical, Magnus Carlsen lost to ...
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Non-linearity in Armageddon bidding: Ostensibly, you give up more time in higher time control
Note: In the ff I assume everyone bids for black, not white.
In blitz (below 10min) :
I see often there's a 5min vs 4min predetermined time. No idea if this is fair, but let's pretend arguendo players ...
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Armageddon: How much more desirable is black in chess than chess960 based on airthings masters 2023 vs 2022 WFRCC?
All games in question are 15 minutes.
In the 4 armageddon games in the 2022 (inaugural rapid, not the real, classical) WFRCC (both qualifiers and final 8), the Black winning bids are: 13,13,11:10,11:...
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Is armageddon more fair in a Vickrey auction? Eg Magnus & Hikaru bid 8:58 vs 8:59 in 2023 Airthings Masters
I believe armageddon is fair only if they bid, but just because they bid doesn't mean it's fair, i.e. bidding is necessary but not sufficient to be fair.
Which side has the advantage in an Armageddon ...
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Is Armageddon always without increment?
Robert Hess said tells Danya that no increment influences why Robert prefers white to black in Armageddon chess960. Of course it really depends on the bid, but I guess Robert would want a lower bid ...
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Is armageddon more fair if bids aren't 1-time only?
As pointed out by GeneM here
Armageddon Chess is a fair tie-break system only if the two players bid for how much time Black should have.
Question: But is it actually more fair if the bids are the ...
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Why would I bid for white in armageddon (in regular chess)?
Related:
Regular chess: Why would I bid for white in armageddon (in regular chess)?
Chess960: Why would I bid for white in armageddon in chess960?
Were there armageddons where white gets lower time or ...
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Why would I bid for white in armageddon in chess960?
Related:
Regular chess: Why would I bid for white in armageddon (in regular chess)?
Chess960: Why would I bid for white in armageddon in chess960?
Were there armageddons where white gets lower time or ...
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In armageddon bidding, what happens if the bid is drawn?
Re armageddon, there is sometimes bidding ("how much time they're willing to give up to play with their desired color") instead of pre-determined 5min vs 4min.
What happens if the bid is ...
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Armageddon: Does / Should White have a lower advantage in chess960 compared to chess?
I'm not (necessarily) asking which colour is more favoured in armageddon chess960. I'm asking that given however much or little white has an advantage of armageddon chess, is this advantage lower in ...
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How does the average standard FIDE rating vary by age and sex?
In my answer to this question regarding requirements for female titles I quoted the mean and standard deviation for male and female ratings for standard chess in the then current FIDE rating list. ...
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When was the last time Magnus Carlsen lost 2 classical games in a row to the same player besides to Wesley So?
Related questions:
When was the last time Magnus Carlsen lost 3 classical games in a row besides to Wesley So?
When was the last time Magnus Carlsen lost 2 classical games in a row to the same ...
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Online Neustadtl Sonneborn–Berger score?
Where can I find a site that calculates Neustadtl Sonneborn–Berger score (or Sonneborn–Berger score or whatever) given a cross-table? Closest I found is this.
Eg Given the cross-table (implied from ...
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Hikaru on chess960: Have there been more Najdorf or Dragon games in the past decade?
From Wikipedia:
Hikaru in 2014 on chess960: (emphasis added)
I think chess960 is great as it is simply pure intuition and understanding without theory or computers. In my opinion, a lot depends on ...
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What are the most popular blunders in the opening stage?
According to the data base at lichess, after 1. d4 Nf6 2. c4 e5 3. dxe5 Ng4 4. Bf4 Nc6 5. Nf3 Bb4+ 6. Nbd2 Qe7 7. a3 Ngxe5, 8. axb4?? has been played 27,409 times (including played by a player with a ...
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Percentage of kids that "stay"
Just for fun, I'm going through my ancient games.
Who? Never heard of? Vanishville?
As a kids trainer I of course know that only a tiny percentage will become "professionals" (and I merely ...
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Record total number of chess games by a player
I just read in a chess mag that Korchnoi holds the record with 5000+ documented games. I'm a bit sceptic about that - should I a) ever electronically document my games (currently they are just a ...
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Is the decline in chess strength in a GM as they age similar to their ascension or different?
I mean, given that GMs or other strong players (I choose strong players because their peak rating vs low has "more data" than that of weaker players but it probably relates to weaker players ...
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At which move the average game is decided?
It's easy to make a statistic how long the average game takes (30-40 moves, to my best knowledge), but when is the average game decided? (Since cashing in the advantage might take a lot of more moves, ...
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How often do strong players (FM or above) miss under promotions?
In the April 2022 Reykjavik Open two players missed winning under promotions.
In the first Hjartson probably saw that the forcing line starting with Qf7 would lead to stalemate after the queen ...
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Why is there a clear difference in master's and other player' opening choice?
For example, based on the database at lichess, after 1. e4, 46.3% of the master games continue with 1... c5 while only 23.4% of all games continue with 1... c5 (31.7% continue with 1... e5).
Another ...
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What engine evaluation does the average randomly generated legal position have?
Would it be accurate to expect a random legal position to tend to evaluate to a white advantage? How does the distribution of evaluations look like?
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Point distribution of an "average" tournament
Maybe this is a bit too much towards math, but we have Noam :-)
If you view the final point standings of any tournament, you'll probably see many players with an average number of points, but few with ...
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How often do Super GMs achieve 100% engine correlation?
There has been speculation that anomalous values of a correlation metric1 may hint to the use of outside assistance.
Example
Examination of Hans Niemann vs Matthieu Cornette surprises:
Hikaru Nakamura:...
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What are chess openings variations, lines which ensure delayed castling with equal probabilities on both sides; king and queen sides?
What are chess openings variations (lines that ensure delayed castling with equal probabilities on both sides; king side and queen side) for both white and black?
Delay to move 15-20.
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Centipawn Loss per opening
Centipawn loss isn't sufficient to reflect the playing strength of a player, as some positions are more complex to play than others.
A centipawn loss of 20 is more challenging to reach in a wild King'...
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Why after 1. d4 Nf6, 2. c4 is so common but after 1. c4 Nf6, 2. d4 is so rare?
I am using Lichess's master database and after 1. d4 Nf6, 71.63% of the game continues with 2. c4. However, after 1. c4 Nf6, only 5.22% of the game continues with 2. d4. Are they not essentially the ...
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"Variance" of Elo rating
What is the quantitative predictive value of Elo rating for tournament performances? (Or, same, what is the natural strength variabitity of an average player, measured in Elo?)
A quantitative version, ...
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Arbiter's top work cause
Any solid data on which rule decision makes up the lion's share of arbiters work nowadays? (I neglect "Lookie, Flag!" because this is rather passive, and a player can claim it anyway. ...
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Did the Queen's Gambit series lead to an increased popularity of the Queen's Gambit opening?
A number of sources have commented on the impact of the Queen's Gambit series on the chess world, usually referring to online chess:
The Queen’s Gambit, the Chess Boom, and the Future of Chess
How ...
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For what percent of the time has the official World Champion not been the world number 1?
Now that Carlsen has decided not to defend his title the next official world champion will not be the world number 1. According to this tweet from Welsh GM Nigel Davies :
I would estimate that for ...
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Is testing an opening by having a computer play against itself viable?
Recently, I got into a brief argument with a colleague when I mentioned that I wanted to use an engine playing against itself to generate a larger sample size for a rare sideline.
His argument was ...
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How do you set up two engines to play each other on a cloud server?
I am exploring a semi-novel idea in the London system, where I play 2...b5!? after 1. d4 Nf6 2. Bf4
A main line goes 3.Nf3 Bb7 4.e3 and now:
4...a6 5.Bd3 e6 or Nh5
4...a6 5.c4 bxc4/b4
4...b4 5.Bd3 e6/...
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What do we know about the statistics of 1-vs-team chess games, like Kasparov vs The World?
Kasparov vs the World was a chess game where Gary Kasparov played against many people on the internet. Gary won. I am basically wondering if 1-vs-many chess games have been done systematically, and if ...
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How does the Israel Chess Federation (ICF) update ratings for players who no longer play in Israel?
I just seen an interesting statement about ICF ratings:
When I moved to England and stopped playing ICF rated chess I was
curious as to what would happen to my ICF rating. It stayed in synch
with my ...
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Difference between national and international rating
For extreme cases see here, but I'm interested in statistical averages.
The most skewing factor, as already mentioned there, should be underrated players, which simply haven't played against the "...
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Is there a way to figure out what the average number of moves would be if all games were played to completion?
Is there a way to figure out the average number of moves of a game? Looking at games on record, it is 40 or so. OK, but what about in pure chess sense? For instance, I was looking at game in which one ...
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Correlation between opening usage
Is there statistical analysis of which openings players play as Black when they play a certain opening as White and vice versa?
For example, is it the case that people that play 1. ..c6, often leading ...
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Is hyperbullet or bullet more common in online gameplay?
On Lichess, the shortest form of bullet is named hyperbullet. It is essentially 30-second chess. Standard bullet is 1 to 3 minutes.
It is difficult to assess popularity without invoking opinion. ...
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What's the average total time for a game of bullet chess?
Bullet chess gives each player 1 minute to make all their moves - if that minute passes and they haven't checkmated their opponent, they lose (or if insufficient material, a draw).
Since chess has 2 ...
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Has anyone done a correlation of castling with winning and losing?
I saw this question: How often does castling occur in grandmaster games? The statistics are interesting. The answer states that they do so about 90% of their games.
So, the move seems pretty valuable....
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FIDE Rating Distribution
This answer has a link to the Lichess blitz rating distribution which looks like this:
It looks like a good approximation to a normal distribution, perhaps slightly skewed to the upper half, and has ...
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Can the "bishop pair advantage" be supported by statistics?
I heard a lot about the advantage of having a bishop pair and I am interested in the statistics about this. More specifically, if we collect a huge number of games (master games only, or games ...
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Average number of moves until checkmate for two players of unequal strenth
Suppose a game is played, until checkmate, between players of unequal strength, say 1800 vs 2800. What would be the average number of moves be for, say, 1000 games? I also ponder 2000 vs 2800 and 2200 ...
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As GMs get older, does their age affect their Classical, Rapid and Blitz ratings equally?
As GMs age beyond their prime, their ratings will likely drop in Classical, Rapid and Blitz chess.
If we compare the mean Elo ratings of older and younger GMs across all 3 time controls, does it show ...
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What is white's increased advantage in chess90 as compared to chess870? (Chess960 can be split into 2 subsets, chess90 and chess870)
Here, it is shown 90 of 960 positions involve having to move a rook on 1 side in order to castle on the other side (unless the rook is somehow captured or something). These 90 positions come from 18 ...
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An abstract Top 1 player rating vs time
How the highest Elo rating has been changing over time? Is there such an abstract data? Preferably FIDE rating.
I've been trying to find a graph or a table, but all I can find is a list of peak ...
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