Skip to main content

Questions tagged [statistics]

Questions about game statistics, e.g. the winning percentage of a "line," the probability of some event occurring in a game, or player statistics.

Filter by
Sorted by
Tagged with
11 votes
1 answer
3k views

Percentage of "playable" openings

Google says 197,742 positions are possible after 4 halfmoves. Let's call a position playable if it is not worse than 0.5 pawn units on the engine of your choice (I use Lichess Stockfish). By this ...
Hauke Reddmann's user avatar
1 vote
1 answer
78 views

Has anyone looked at the percent of brilliant, best, book, etc moves in chess.com by rating?

After a game, chess.com lists moves as "brilliant", "best" etc down to "blunder". I'm wondering about the % of each for random selections of players at different levels ...
Peter Flom's user avatar
3 votes
0 answers
207 views

The Most Frequent Checkmate Patterns

Of the main checkmate patterns which are the most frequent (in games that ended with a checkmate)? Based on chess literature the Back-rank mate is arguably the most common, I would expect the Queen ...
chesshomem's user avatar
3 votes
1 answer
139 views

How to access high level tournament game data

I am currently in need of data from high level tournaments for a project and the data needs to include information like each individual move, the engine evaluation after each move, and the time ...
Han's user avatar
  • 31
0 votes
1 answer
77 views

Transferring data from chess engine to statistical software

How do I extract data such as board configuration, engine evaluation, time spent per move etc from an engine into a statistical software package like stata? I am currently trying to investigate the ...
Han's user avatar
  • 31
1 vote
0 answers
95 views

How common are tripled pawns in chess games?

Recently I played a nice OTB game where I sacked a pawn to triple my enemy's pawns, and won convincingly. Having played thousands of games online and dozens OTB, I somehow fail to remember any other ...
Hank's back rank's user avatar
4 votes
1 answer
233 views

Ecological footprint of chess

Chess must be a very "green" sport, the resource demand is minimal. But then, lately online chess is in vogue, and servers eat amps. Any estimation how much energy online chess is consuming ...
Hauke Reddmann's user avatar
0 votes
0 answers
55 views

Who is the first woman to play USCF rated chess in all 50 US states?

On X/Twitter this tweet appeared by somebody called Megan: Today was a historic day for my #chess life. I wrapped up the 50 states quest in Alaska, with Fairbanks Chess Club's #NationalChessDay G/15 ...
Brian Towers's user avatar
  • 98k
3 votes
4 answers
367 views

En passant capture - statistically advantageous?

If anyone is doing chess score analysis (on say, last 10 years of competitive games), I wonder if it's identifiable how many times en passant (EP) capture could have been played vs how many times it ...
Snowy Oz's user avatar
5 votes
1 answer
219 views

Which officer type makes (on average) the most moves in a chess game?

I suppose K the least (endgame will up the ante for K, but not that many games will reach the endgame) and N the most (the knight is slow in regrouping) but I don't have access to a megabase. I expect ...
Hauke Reddmann's user avatar
4 votes
0 answers
119 views

How often do strong master level players (2400+) make illegal moves?

In the latest podcast from the Chicken Chess Club, Laurent Fressinet admitted that in his latest tournament, the French rapid and blitz championships, he made an illegal move. He asked the other two ...
Brian Towers's user avatar
  • 98k
-2 votes
1 answer
269 views

According to Wikipedia, only three women have EVER been top 100 in chess. How many men have ever been top 100?

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women_in_chess "Three women, Maia Chiburdanidze, Polgár, and Hou Yifan, have been ranked in the world's top 100 players." That is, right now, there are not ...
d-b's user avatar
  • 259
1 vote
1 answer
135 views

Most combative head-to-head World Championships?

Chess.com keep tweeting about how combative this match is. 3 out of 5 games so far have been decisive, more than any other match in the last 10 years. Of course, us old timers remember Reykjavik 1972 ...
Brian Towers's user avatar
  • 98k
1 vote
0 answers
183 views

How often do super GMs blunder mate in 1?

Yesterday (5th April 2023) Nakamura blundered a pretty mate in 1 against Caruana in the Chessable Masters: [Title "Caruana - Nakamura, Chessable Masters 2023"] [fen "Rb6/5kp1/8/1r1P3P/...
Brian Towers's user avatar
  • 98k
4 votes
1 answer
955 views

Who are the top 10 youngest players to reach a FIDE standard rating of 2200?

In age order of achieving the rating, who are the 10 youngest players to reach 2200 standard FIDE rating? Prag and Karjakin obviously feature, but who else?
Brian Towers's user avatar
  • 98k
0 votes
1 answer
189 views

How rare are double forks in high-level games?

I was playing a blitz game, when I saw my chance to produce an amusing position, to which my opponent unknowingly obliged; I was able to fork their rooks with my queen and rook simultaneously. [Title &...
Rewan Demontay's user avatar
2 votes
4 answers
375 views

Why is the outdated Steinitz Defense still so popular among non-professionals?

The Steinitz Defense is generally considered outdated by modern professional players. However, according to the Lichess Database, the move 3... d6 is actually the second most popular choice after 1.e4 ...
Zuriel's user avatar
  • 9,091
0 votes
1 answer
215 views

Classical world championship where someone lost 3 games in a row, COUNTING draws?

Obviously NOT counting draws there are a lot eg Nepo lost 4-0 total to Magnus in the 2021 WCC so removing the draws, there's that. In the 2019 WFRCC, which was indeed classical, Magnus Carlsen lost to ...
BCLC's user avatar
  • 2,060
-1 votes
1 answer
113 views

Non-linearity in Armageddon bidding: Ostensibly, you give up more time in higher time control

Note: In the ff I assume everyone bids for black, not white. In blitz (below 10min) : I see often there's a 5min vs 4min predetermined time. No idea if this is fair, but let's pretend arguendo players ...
BCLC's user avatar
  • 2,060
0 votes
1 answer
123 views

Armageddon: How much more desirable is black in chess than chess960 based on airthings masters 2023 vs 2022 WFRCC?

All games in question are 15 minutes. In the 4 armageddon games in the 2022 (inaugural rapid, not the real, classical) WFRCC (both qualifiers and final 8), the Black winning bids are: 13,13,11:10,11:...
BCLC's user avatar
  • 2,060
1 vote
2 answers
266 views

Is armageddon more fair in a Vickrey auction?

I believe armageddon is fair only if they bid, but just because they bid doesn't mean it's fair, i.e. bidding is necessary but not sufficient to be fair. Which side has the advantage in an Armageddon ...
BCLC's user avatar
  • 2,060
0 votes
1 answer
126 views

Is Armageddon always without increment?

Robert Hess said tells Danya that no increment influences why Robert prefers white to black in Armageddon chess960. Of course it really depends on the bid, but I guess Robert would want a lower bid ...
BCLC's user avatar
  • 2,060
1 vote
2 answers
140 views

Is armageddon more fair if bids aren't 1-time only?

As pointed out by GeneM here Armageddon Chess is a fair tie-break system only if the two players bid for how much time Black should have. Question: But is it actually more fair if the bids are the ...
BCLC's user avatar
  • 2,060
-2 votes
1 answer
448 views

Why would I bid for white in armageddon (in regular chess)?

Related: Regular chess: Why would I bid for white in armageddon (in regular chess)? Chess960: Why would I bid for white in armageddon in chess960? Were there armageddons where white gets lower time or ...
BCLC's user avatar
  • 2,060
2 votes
1 answer
165 views

Why would I bid for white in armageddon in chess960?

Related: Regular chess: Why would I bid for white in armageddon (in regular chess)? Chess960: Why would I bid for white in armageddon in chess960? Were there armageddons where white gets lower time or ...
BCLC's user avatar
  • 2,060
-1 votes
1 answer
468 views

In armageddon bidding, what happens if the bid is drawn?

Re armageddon, there is sometimes bidding ("how much time they're willing to give up to play with their desired color") instead of pre-determined 5min vs 4min. What happens if the bid is ...
BCLC's user avatar
  • 2,060
0 votes
1 answer
105 views

Armageddon: Does / Should White have a lower advantage in chess960 compared to chess?

I'm not (necessarily) asking which colour is more favoured in armageddon chess960. I'm asking that given however much or little white has an advantage of armageddon chess, is this advantage lower in ...
BCLC's user avatar
  • 2,060
4 votes
1 answer
215 views

How does the average standard FIDE rating vary by age and sex?

In my answer to this question regarding requirements for female titles I quoted the mean and standard deviation for male and female ratings for standard chess in the then current FIDE rating list. ...
Brian Towers's user avatar
  • 98k
4 votes
1 answer
719 views

When was the last time Magnus Carlsen lost 2 classical games in a row to the same player besides to Wesley So?

Related questions: When was the last time Magnus Carlsen lost 3 classical games in a row besides to Wesley So? When was the last time Magnus Carlsen lost 2 classical games in a row to the same ...
BCLC's user avatar
  • 2,060
0 votes
1 answer
279 views

Online Neustadtl Sonneborn–Berger score?

Where can I find a site that calculates Neustadtl Sonneborn–Berger score (or Sonneborn–Berger score or whatever) given a cross-table? Closest I found is this. Eg Given the cross-table (implied from ...
BCLC's user avatar
  • 2,060
0 votes
0 answers
93 views

Hikaru on chess960: Have there been more Najdorf or Dragon games in the past decade?

From Wikipedia: Hikaru in 2014 on chess960: (emphasis added) I think chess960 is great as it is simply pure intuition and understanding without theory or computers. In my opinion, a lot depends on ...
BCLC's user avatar
  • 2,060
4 votes
1 answer
233 views

What are the most popular blunders in the opening stage?

According to the data base at lichess, after 1. d4 Nf6 2. c4 e5 3. dxe5 Ng4 4. Bf4 Nc6 5. Nf3 Bb4+ 6. Nbd2 Qe7 7. a3 Ngxe5, 8. axb4?? has been played 27,409 times (including played by a player with a ...
Zuriel's user avatar
  • 9,091
1 vote
2 answers
230 views

Percentage of kids that "stay"

Just for fun, I'm going through my ancient games. Who? Never heard of? Vanishville? As a kids trainer I of course know that only a tiny percentage will become "professionals" (and I merely ...
Hauke Reddmann's user avatar
0 votes
0 answers
50 views

Record total number of chess games by a player

I just read in a chess mag that Korchnoi holds the record with 5000+ documented games. I'm a bit sceptic about that - should I a) ever electronically document my games (currently they are just a ...
Hauke Reddmann's user avatar
3 votes
3 answers
232 views

Is the decline in chess strength in a GM as they age similar to their ascension or different?

I mean, given that GMs or other strong players (I choose strong players because their peak rating vs low has "more data" than that of weaker players but it probably relates to weaker players ...
releseabe's user avatar
  • 765
1 vote
0 answers
110 views

At which move the average game is decided?

It's easy to make a statistic how long the average game takes (30-40 moves, to my best knowledge), but when is the average game decided? (Since cashing in the advantage might take a lot of more moves, ...
Hauke Reddmann's user avatar
6 votes
2 answers
234 views

How often do strong players (FM or above) miss under promotions?

In the April 2022 Reykjavik Open two players missed winning under promotions. In the first Hjartson probably saw that the forcing line starting with Qf7 would lead to stalemate after the queen ...
Brian Towers's user avatar
  • 98k
5 votes
3 answers
180 views

Why is there a clear difference in master's and other player' opening choice?

For example, based on the database at lichess, after 1. e4, 46.3% of the master games continue with 1... c5 while only 23.4% of all games continue with 1... c5 (31.7% continue with 1... e5). Another ...
Zuriel's user avatar
  • 9,091
0 votes
1 answer
92 views

What engine evaluation does the average randomly generated legal position have?

Would it be accurate to expect a random legal position to tend to evaluate to a white advantage? How does the distribution of evaluations look like?
2080's user avatar
  • 916
3 votes
1 answer
165 views

Point distribution of an "average" tournament

Maybe this is a bit too much towards math, but we have Noam :-) If you view the final point standings of any tournament, you'll probably see many players with an average number of points, but few with ...
Hauke Reddmann's user avatar
12 votes
3 answers
1k views

How often do Super GMs achieve 100% engine correlation?

There has been speculation that anomalous values of a correlation metric1 may hint to the use of outside assistance. Example Examination of Hans Niemann vs Matthieu Cornette surprises: Hikaru Nakamura:...
stevec's user avatar
  • 2,087
2 votes
0 answers
84 views

What are chess openings variations, lines which ensure delayed castling with equal probabilities on both sides; king and queen sides?

What are chess openings variations (lines that ensure delayed castling with equal probabilities on both sides; king side and queen side) for both white and black? Delay to move 15-20.
salah's user avatar
  • 255
7 votes
1 answer
148 views

Centipawn Loss per opening

Centipawn loss isn't sufficient to reflect the playing strength of a player, as some positions are more complex to play than others. A centipawn loss of 20 is more challenging to reach in a wild King'...
Hauptideal's user avatar
  • 6,192
10 votes
3 answers
2k views

Why after 1. d4 Nf6, 2. c4 is so common but after 1. c4 Nf6, 2. d4 is so rare?

I am using Lichess's master database and after 1. d4 Nf6, 71.63% of the game continues with 2. c4. However, after 1. c4 Nf6, only 5.22% of the game continues with 2. d4. Are they not essentially the ...
Zuriel's user avatar
  • 9,091
3 votes
0 answers
264 views

"Variance" of Elo rating

What is the quantitative predictive value of Elo rating for tournament performances? (Or, same, what is the natural strength variabitity of an average player, measured in Elo?) A quantitative version, ...
Hauke Reddmann's user avatar
15 votes
1 answer
2k views

Arbiter's top work cause

Any solid data on which rule decision makes up the lion's share of arbiters work nowadays? (I neglect "Lookie, Flag!" because this is rather passive, and a player can claim it anyway. ...
Hauke Reddmann's user avatar
22 votes
2 answers
6k views

Did the Queen's Gambit series lead to an increased popularity of the Queen's Gambit opening?

A number of sources have commented on the impact of the Queen's Gambit series on the chess world, usually referring to online chess: The Queen’s Gambit, the Chess Boom, and the Future of Chess How ...
SecretAgentMan's user avatar
9 votes
1 answer
242 views

For what percent of the time has the official World Champion not been the world number 1?

Now that Carlsen has decided not to defend his title the next official world champion will not be the world number 1. According to this tweet from Welsh GM Nigel Davies : I would estimate that for ...
Brian Towers's user avatar
  • 98k
5 votes
3 answers
1k views

Is testing an opening by having a computer play against itself viable?

Recently, I got into a brief argument with a colleague when I mentioned that I wanted to use an engine playing against itself to generate a larger sample size for a rare sideline. His argument was ...
DdogBoss's user avatar
  • 193
7 votes
1 answer
548 views

How do you set up two engines to play each other on a cloud server?

I am exploring a semi-novel idea in the London system, where I play 2...b5!? after 1. d4 Nf6 2. Bf4 A main line goes 3.Nf3 Bb7 4.e3 and now: 4...a6 5.Bd3 e6 or Nh5 4...a6 5.c4 bxc4/b4 4...b4 5.Bd3 e6/...
DdogBoss's user avatar
  • 193

1
2 3 4 5