Questions tagged [statistics]
Questions about game statistics, e.g. the winning percentage of a "line," the probability of some event occurring in a game, or player statistics.
113
questions
2
votes
0answers
39 views
Percentage of decisive games decided by tactical mistakes?
In their book, The Woodpecker Method, Axel Smith and Hans Tikkanen give these percentages of decisive games decided by tactical mistakes:
GMs 42%
2200-2400 44%
2000-2200 63%
1800-2000 72%
They say:
...
3
votes
0answers
52 views
Relation between ratings for Chess960 and standard chess
Is there any relation or any attempt at discovering a relation between Chess960 ratings and standard chess ratings? This can be for GMs, for (any)M's, for pro players, or for all players on lichess/...
7
votes
3answers
1k views
Elo distribution
In some online chess platforms you can see the Elo distribution of the players.
It usually has Gaussian form.
Is there somewhere where you can find the distribution of the classical Fide Elo?
5
votes
2answers
168 views
How many FIDE rated games are played per year?
I was surprised not to be able to easily find this statistic. How many FIDE rated games are played around the world each year?
2
votes
2answers
118 views
Is there a data file available (e.g. a .csv) containing every single rated game?
Question
Is there a data file somewhere containing every single (FIDE) rated game?
What I found out so far
I see many websites with some limited database search capability, or summary statistics, but ...
5
votes
2answers
286 views
What's the oldest age at which a grandmaster played their first rated game?
Of all grandmasters past and present, what is the oldest age at which any of them started playing chess?
Define started playing chess:
The day that person played their first (FIDE, or equivalent) ...
3
votes
1answer
152 views
What are the percentage rates for each promotion type?
I could not find the database which has this, but I would like to know what percentage of promoted pawns ends up being a queen, rook, bishop, or knight
19
votes
2answers
4k views
Do any grandmasters win more with black than white?
Some statistics indicate white scores 52-56% - but I wonder if that differs according to playing style - e.g. perhaps strong defenders prefer the black pieces.
Do any former/current grandmasters have ...
4
votes
3answers
950 views
Is it true that amateur players tend to choose the advance variation after 1. e4 c6 2. d4 d5?
My database shows that after 1. e4 c6 2. d4 d5, white has the following main variations:
Nc3
exd5
e5
and they are equally popular among professional players. However, from my experience playing ...
2
votes
1answer
70 views
Getting wrong results in perft stats with checks and mates
The perft count works well after testing with many positions from epd files from the web
Now I want to see some perft stats like this one: https://www.chessprogramming.org/Perft_Results, from the ...
3
votes
1answer
70 views
As we come out of lockdown, how much FIDE rated chess was played in June 2020?
I asked a similar question about chess during lockdown. Now that some countries are coming out of lockdown and chess is resuming FIDE has published data for June.
NB I looked at May data and as far as ...
1
vote
1answer
205 views
What percentage of the time does White win in the Lomonosov tablebase?
Studies show a slight advantage for White for having the first move. In the tablebase of trillions of 7-piece endgames, with White to move, how many of those endgames end up as wins, how many as ...
3
votes
1answer
263 views
How often do grandmasters fail to mate soon when mate in five or less is possible?
The recent question, How often do grandmasters miss checkmate? , turned out to be a bit broad. This question asks about a simple subset of that one, which I hope can be answered with some precision.
...
19
votes
4answers
6k views
How often do grandmasters miss checkmate?
Although top players are extremely good at finding checkmate, the number of permutations of moves in just 3 moves can be hundreds of thousands, and the farther out the possible mate (e.g. mate in 4, ...
4
votes
1answer
681 views
By how much does being told what piece to move improve one's Elo?
Here is a (rather humorous) game in which a 900 player is told by a much higher rated player only which kind of piece to move (e.g. along the lines of "bishop", not "light square bishop").
Is it ...
6
votes
1answer
615 views
What is the typical move prediction accuracy of human chess grandmasters?
I couldn't find any data about the percentage of moves that a typical human grandmaster would be able to predict in games of other human grandmasters. To clarify my definition of accuracy: The ...
4
votes
2answers
390 views
How much FIDE rated chess was played in April 2020?
FIDE has just published the May 2020 rating list which brings the ratings up to date for games played in April. The rating file can be downloaded from the FIDE download page.
Many countries have ...
13
votes
2answers
1k views
Statistics on rejected draw offers
I am wondering if there are any statistics on rejected draw offers (say of GM games). Namely, what are the following percentages of the following results when a draw offer is declined:
The side that ...
5
votes
2answers
167 views
How to exploit an opponent must-win situation
I am 1.5 points clear of the field, and my last-round opponent is in a must-win situation for a prize. Is there a mathematically/statistically proven way for me to take advantage of this state of ...
1
vote
1answer
91 views
Are there any papers that highlight the problems with rating systems?
Ratings are a paradox. Mathematically they seem to dependent on other factors than ability. Yet people are obsessed with their rating as if it defines them as a person somehow.
Are their any ...
3
votes
2answers
152 views
What is the average speed in tournaments for USFC rapid chess ratings?
Rapid ratings cover a very wide range of time controls and bump up against regular (where games are dual rated) as well as blitz time controls.
What is the average time for USCF rapid games that are ...
4
votes
2answers
71 views
Is there an analysis of World Champions' games that shows the statistics of their game?
Is there an analysis of World Champion games, with the help of engines, that shows statistics like percentage of best moves played, blunders made, creative moves which computers can only see at high ...
2
votes
2answers
125 views
Are there any moves that are more popular in databases of GM games but are objectively inferior?
Usually in a particular opening position, if move A is more popular (in GM games) than move B, then either move A is objectively better than move B, or move A is equally good as move B.
Are there ...
13
votes
5answers
6k views
Why have engines not increased top rated chess players' Elo?
The arrival of strong chess engines as Stockfish, Houdini or Rybka allow top players to deeply prepare lines in openings or to study better endgames.
I would expect a rating increase of top players. ...
2
votes
1answer
192 views
Knight promotion percentages
Knight promotion is the second most common promotion. Most of the time it is to give an otherwise undeliverable check. But it doesn’t always come with check. Statistically speaking, what percentage of ...
1
vote
3answers
1k views
Why I did not see the first-mover advantage in my game history? [closed]
I have played over a thousand blitz games at chess.com and here are the results:
I failed to notice any obvious difference between white and black. In other word, I do not see the the first-mover ...
2
votes
2answers
240 views
In Swiss tournaments, is it common to play weaker players when playing White?
I was looking at the statistics for my tournament games in SCID, and found something surprising. When I played opponents rated under 1000, 13 out of 15 times I've had White. Conversely, when I played ...
2
votes
1answer
258 views
Draw rates in classical chess between elite players?
I'm looking for detailed statistics exhibiting draw rate for elite players. I did find this and this publications, however, they only contain aggregated data for 2600+ players, and arrive at a figure ...
6
votes
4answers
581 views
Is there a low-end ELO Deflation?
I've heard often about Elo Inflation among the top chess players, meaning that a player rated 2650 Elo nowadays is weaker compared to a player rated 2650 Elo player 10 years ago.
I'm curious if there'...
27
votes
2answers
7k views
How often does castling occur in grandmaster games?
May I know how to find in all grandmaster games, what the percentage of each of the following is?
Kingside castling
Queenside castling
Never castled by the end of the game but still has the right to ...
4
votes
6answers
1k views
Is my low blitz game drawing rate at www.chess.com an indicator that I am weak in chess?
I have played 630 blitz game at chess.com and only 10.3% of my games are draw; see the diagram.
When I play black, my drawing rate is slightly higher than my drawing rate playing white. This is ...
8
votes
3answers
3k views
What is the draw frequency for 3 consecutive games (same players; amateur level)?
In Mr. Robot (TV series) episode "eps2.2_init_1.asec", Elliot and Mr. Robot drew 3 consecutive chess games. They remark it's impossible.
The odds of that are Impossible.
As far as TV shows go, Mr. ...
5
votes
6answers
249 views
In the opening stage, can we determine that one move is better than another by looking at winning percentage?
After 1.c4 Nf6 2. Nc3 g6, thousands of games have been played with the following two moves of white: 3.g3 and 3.e4. It seems that the winning percentage suggested that 3.e4 is clearly better than 3....
9
votes
3answers
1k views
What is the average number of legal moves per turn?
For example in the first turn there are 20 possible legal moves (16 pawn moves and 4 knights moves). This number increases in the middlegame and then decreases in the Endgame.
Are there some ...
4
votes
1answer
967 views
Oscillating Stockfish Evaluation on Laptop
I'm using stockfish-9-bmi2 on my laptop to provide me move by move evaluation of games. I've set Stockfish to evaluate to depth = 25 plys. I find that the evaluation provided oscillates move-on-move ...
13
votes
2answers
2k views
Are there statistics on the results of armageddon games at the GM level?
I've tried finding statistics on the results of competitive armageddon games played at a high level (say, GM level), but to no avail. Evidently, these statistics must exist, as for example FIDE ...
1
vote
2answers
107 views
Can an Optimal Stopping strategy be applied to search functions?
Can the solution to the famous Secretary Problem be applied to the search function of a chess engine? Rejecting the first 37% moves and choosing the best one after that,or maybe even just checking the ...
10
votes
1answer
287 views
Why are games more likely to last 60, 80 and 120 moves?
I've downloaded and parsed the king-base chess database (about 1.5 million games) and am looking at distribution of moves for games. When plotting the distribution for different outcomes, I see spikes ...
2
votes
3answers
208 views
Database program for statistics about mistakes
I wonder if there is an application that will help with statistics for my own games. Of course - there are applications (eg. Scid, Chessbase) that allow to make some statistics out of database - but ...
4
votes
1answer
82 views
What kind of statistics should I run on a database? [closed]
I have written a python script to verify the strategical rule of "controlling the center".
I have parsed the free 2.2 million games database (it takes about 5 minutes) and I have found that the ...
-2
votes
1answer
2k views
What is the number of chess position for each move? [closed]
I have read some articles that chess has a numbers of 10 to power of 120. Can some one can throw lights to it:
White 1st move: No of Position
White 2nd move: No of Position
till
White 72nd move: No ...
4
votes
1answer
553 views
Winning percentage in chess 960
How does the winning percentage (white win/draw/black win) in chess 960 (Fischer random) compare to that of regular chess? Are there more white wins, fewer draws,...?
4
votes
1answer
610 views
Improvement of chess engines over time
Chess engine strength has increased considerably over time due to increase of computer strength, but also improvement in algorithms/parameters.
Is there any statistics or graph out there which shows ...
5
votes
1answer
604 views
Where can I find a rarity table of chess player ratings? [duplicate]
Now it's fine either as percentage of all FIDE players registered or just as number itself (like either 1/100k players are rated above X, or 23 players rated above X, respectively). Let's say by ...
6
votes
1answer
255 views
Draws by game number in championship matches
Some commentators have expressed surprise at the two relatively bland draws to open out the most recent (Carlsen-Karjakin) World Championships. I'm wondering whether there's been any study as to ...
2
votes
1answer
197 views
Carlsen vs Karjakin individual encounter results statistics so far?
I wonder how many times Carlsen and Karjakin played so far and who won the more number of games. Any idea?
5
votes
2answers
334 views
Why is 7. f3 so ubiquitous in the Yugoslav Sicilian?
I'm a mid-level player just starting to systematically study openings, and I'm wondering why it is that after the signature Yugoslav initiation 6. Be3 by White, and the certain follow-up 6. ... Bg7, ...
4
votes
1answer
857 views
Does engine score correlate with winning chances?
I was wondering if there is a statistical or probabilistic (at least approximate) way of looking at a score of a chess position of a certain fixed engine, say "crafty version 5" for example.
i.e. ...
2
votes
1answer
177 views
Statistical Right Handedness Bias in Move Selection?
It seems clear to me that there must be a statistical bias in the move selection of master level games in relation to the natural "hand" of the move, right or left.
Let me explain. For the sake of ...
6
votes
2answers
2k views
If the Sicilian is so strong, why do people still play e4 in competitions?
1.d4 is a statistically more successful opening for white due to the high success rate of the Sicilian defence against 1.e4
I understand it's fun to play different openings, but at the highest level, ...
