Questions tagged [statistics]
Questions about game statistics, e.g. the winning percentage of a "line," the probability of some event occurring in a game, or player statistics.
133
questions
4
votes
1answer
203 views
When playing a two-game match, is it better to have white in the first game?
Many rapid and blitz tournaments use a multigame match system in the elimination rounds. What statistics are there on how frequently the player with White in the first game wins? Is there a ...
3
votes
0answers
184 views
The most often played chess game
Offhand, I say the Shepherd's Mate. But let us just consider "serious" tournament play. Still, the game must be rather short to be repeated extremely often. Could be a "Will they ever ...
2
votes
0answers
89 views
Number of games ever played in history?
Obviously, an exact answer can't be given, but we can't count all electrons in the universe either and physicists still gave an answer probably correct by an order of magnitude.
Let's specify: Only ...
7
votes
1answer
156 views
Why do you see peaks on the elo distribution?
I was observing the elo distribution in Lichess and noticed peaks around rounded numbers elos ratings for medium to high rated players. This is consistent in Bullet, Blitz, Rapid games and not so much ...
3
votes
1answer
648 views
How many 2200+ FIDE rated players are there?
Are there any sources for the recent numbers of players rated over 2200 byFIDE?
3
votes
1answer
71 views
What are the biggest events in chess by viewership?
I realise chess viewerships have skyrocketed due to organic growth in popularity, and especially due to more people being stuck indoors in the last year.
Are there statistics on how many viewers each ...
1
vote
0answers
98 views
How often do GM-level classical games end in checkmate?
I understand that top-level games mostly end in draws or resignation, and presumably occasionally running out of time.
What proportion of top level tournament games (in classical time controls) ...
2
votes
3answers
185 views
How do convert/parse/extract data from a PGN into a spreadsheet/google sheet/excel file?
Sequel to this question: Live statistics chess960 from chess.com?
So suppose I go to like
https://api.chess.com/pub/player/gmwso/games/2020/12
or
https://api.chess.com/pub/player/gmwso/games/2020/12/...
12
votes
2answers
275 views
What is the physical response to a high level chess game?
Chess is used as an example of how the body can be influenced purely by brain activity:
In the middle of a chess Grand Master tournament these people are maintaining blood pressure for 6 hours' ...
0
votes
1answer
185 views
Which countries have the most GMs per capita?
This interesting site has a "World map of chess grandmasters" which looks like this:
Apart from the fact that Russia is very wide (it looks like it crosses 10 time zones), it looks like ...
3
votes
1answer
94 views
Live statistics chess960 from chess.com?
Cross-posted stackoverflow, but nothing.
Both lichess and chess.com have the feature to play the variant chess960 live. However, only lichess has a graph showing how your live chess960 rating has ...
5
votes
1answer
146 views
Reasons for losing
Wouldn't be surprise if this is a duplicate (related even more related), but:
Obviously there are two main ways to lose a game: Blundering it away in a single move or be slowly crushed by a better ...
2
votes
1answer
379 views
List of female chess players by peak FIDE rating
Update/Request: The answer currently doesn't include countries and other trivia like in the original one. Please consider posting an answer like this or editing current answer to include these. ...
3
votes
0answers
110 views
Winning percentage in chess960 in 2021?
How does the winning percentage (white win/draw/black win) in chess 960 (Fischer random) compare to that of regular chess?
The above was asked here. I would like to re-ask this question with the ...
6
votes
2answers
542 views
Why, in online chess, is it that the shorter the time control, the higher the world leading elo is?
I noticed on lichess.org that the shorter the time control, the higher the world-leading elo is. Is there a simple explanation for that?
I also noticed that, in the meantime, the shorter the time ...
24
votes
4answers
6k views
Are chess players getting better, given the same rating?
Chess ratings are a relative thing at a particular time, just like boxing. It is not absolute, compared to weightlifting for example, in which the records keep getting broken. How would say a 1700 ...
2
votes
0answers
50 views
Percentage of decisive games decided by tactical mistakes?
In their book, The Woodpecker Method, Axel Smith and Hans Tikkanen give these percentages of decisive games decided by tactical mistakes:
GMs 42%
2200-2400 44%
2000-2200 63%
1800-2000 72%
They say:
...
4
votes
0answers
109 views
Relation between ratings for Chess960 and standard chess
Is there any relation or any attempt at discovering a relation between Chess960 ratings and standard chess ratings? This can be for GMs, for (any)M's, for pro players, or for all players on lichess/...
6
votes
3answers
2k views
Elo distribution
In some online chess platforms you can see the Elo distribution of the players.
It usually has Gaussian form.
Is there somewhere where you can find the distribution of the classical Fide Elo?
5
votes
2answers
191 views
How many FIDE rated games are played per year?
I was surprised not to be able to easily find this statistic. How many FIDE rated games are played around the world each year?
2
votes
2answers
132 views
Is there a data file available (e.g. a .csv) containing every single rated game?
Question
Is there a data file somewhere containing every single (FIDE) rated game?
What I found out so far
I see many websites with some limited database search capability, or summary statistics, but ...
5
votes
2answers
316 views
What's the oldest age at which a grandmaster played their first rated game?
Of all grandmasters past and present, what is the oldest age at which any of them started playing chess?
Define started playing chess:
The day that person played their first (FIDE, or equivalent) ...
3
votes
1answer
172 views
What are the percentage rates for each promotion type?
I could not find the database which has this, but I would like to know what percentage of promoted pawns ends up being a queen, rook, bishop, or knight
19
votes
2answers
4k views
Do any grandmasters win more with black than white?
Some statistics indicate white scores 52-56% - but I wonder if that differs according to playing style - e.g. perhaps strong defenders prefer the black pieces.
Do any former/current grandmasters have ...
4
votes
3answers
963 views
Is it true that amateur players tend to choose the advance variation after 1. e4 c6 2. d4 d5?
My database shows that after 1. e4 c6 2. d4 d5, white has the following main variations:
Nc3
exd5
e5
and they are equally popular among professional players. However, from my experience playing ...
2
votes
1answer
87 views
Getting wrong results in perft stats with checks and mates
The perft count works well after testing with many positions from epd files from the web
Now I want to see some perft stats like this one: https://www.chessprogramming.org/Perft_Results, from the ...
3
votes
1answer
76 views
As we come out of lockdown, how much FIDE rated chess was played in June 2020?
I asked a similar question about chess during lockdown. Now that some countries are coming out of lockdown and chess is resuming FIDE has published data for June.
NB I looked at May data and as far as ...
1
vote
1answer
226 views
What percentage of the time does White win in the Lomonosov tablebase?
Studies show a slight advantage for White for having the first move. In the tablebase of trillions of 7-piece endgames, with White to move, how many of those endgames end up as wins, how many as ...
3
votes
1answer
297 views
How often do grandmasters fail to mate soon when mate in five or less is possible?
The recent question, How often do grandmasters miss checkmate? , turned out to be a bit broad. This question asks about a simple subset of that one, which I hope can be answered with some precision.
...
19
votes
4answers
6k views
How often do grandmasters miss checkmate?
Although top players are extremely good at finding checkmate, the number of permutations of moves in just 3 moves can be hundreds of thousands, and the farther out the possible mate (e.g. mate in 4, ...
4
votes
1answer
720 views
By how much does being told what piece to move improve one's Elo?
Here is a (rather humorous) game in which a 900 player is told by a much higher rated player only which kind of piece to move (e.g. along the lines of "bishop", not "light square bishop").
Is it ...
6
votes
1answer
769 views
What is the typical move prediction accuracy of human chess grandmasters?
I couldn't find any data about the percentage of moves that a typical human grandmaster would be able to predict in games of other human grandmasters. To clarify my definition of accuracy: The ...
8
votes
2answers
177 views
Is there any website that shows which opening a certain player struggles against?
I just thought that it would be an interesting statistic to know which openings players like Carlsen and Fischer lost most against. Are there any websites that give these statistics?
4
votes
2answers
397 views
How much FIDE rated chess was played in April 2020?
FIDE has just published the May 2020 rating list which brings the ratings up to date for games played in April. The rating file can be downloaded from the FIDE download page.
Many countries have ...
13
votes
2answers
1k views
Statistics on rejected draw offers
I am wondering if there are any statistics on rejected draw offers (say of GM games). Namely, what are the following percentages of the following results when a draw offer is declined:
The side that ...
5
votes
2answers
177 views
How to exploit an opponent must-win situation
I am 1.5 points clear of the field, and my last-round opponent is in a must-win situation for a prize. Is there a mathematically/statistically proven way for me to take advantage of this state of ...
0
votes
1answer
93 views
Are there any papers that highlight the problems with rating systems?
Ratings are a paradox. Mathematically they seem to dependent on other factors than ability. Yet people are obsessed with their rating as if it defines them as a person somehow.
Are their any ...
3
votes
2answers
205 views
What is the average speed in tournaments for USFC rapid chess ratings?
Rapid ratings cover a very wide range of time controls and bump up against regular (where games are dual rated) as well as blitz time controls.
What is the average time for USCF rapid games that are ...
4
votes
2answers
72 views
Is there an analysis of World Champions' games that shows the statistics of their game?
Is there an analysis of World Champion games, with the help of engines, that shows statistics like percentage of best moves played, blunders made, creative moves which computers can only see at high ...
2
votes
2answers
131 views
Are there any moves that are more popular in databases of GM games but are objectively inferior?
Usually in a particular opening position, if move A is more popular (in GM games) than move B, then either move A is objectively better than move B, or move A is equally good as move B.
Are there ...
13
votes
5answers
6k views
Why have engines not increased top rated chess players' Elo?
The arrival of strong chess engines as Stockfish, Houdini or Rybka allow top players to deeply prepare lines in openings or to study better endgames.
I would expect a rating increase of top players. ...
2
votes
1answer
213 views
Knight promotion percentages
Knight promotion is the second most common promotion. Most of the time it is to give an otherwise undeliverable check. But it doesn’t always come with check. Statistically speaking, what percentage of ...
1
vote
3answers
1k views
Why I did not see the first-mover advantage in my game history? [closed]
I have played over a thousand blitz games at chess.com and here are the results:
I failed to notice any obvious difference between white and black. In other word, I do not see the the first-mover ...
22
votes
2answers
758 views
How do age and initial rating correlate to decline in playing strength with age?
The current Rausis phone cheating scandal saw a player with an initial rating of about 2500 in his 50's improve by about 200 rating points in 6 years. This improvement was remarkable because older ...
2
votes
2answers
246 views
In Swiss tournaments, is it common to play weaker players when playing White?
I was looking at the statistics for my tournament games in SCID, and found something surprising. When I played opponents rated under 1000, 13 out of 15 times I've had White. Conversely, when I played ...
2
votes
1answer
299 views
Draw rates in classical chess between elite players?
I'm looking for detailed statistics exhibiting draw rate for elite players. I did find this and this publications, however, they only contain aggregated data for 2600+ players, and arrive at a figure ...
7
votes
4answers
674 views
Is there a low-end ELO Deflation?
I've heard often about Elo Inflation among the top chess players, meaning that a player rated 2650 Elo nowadays is weaker compared to a player rated 2650 Elo player 10 years ago.
I'm curious if there'...
27
votes
2answers
7k views
How often does castling occur in grandmaster games?
May I know how to find in all grandmaster games, what the percentage of each of the following is?
Kingside castling
Queenside castling
Never castled by the end of the game but still has the right to ...
4
votes
6answers
1k views
Is my low blitz game drawing rate at www.chess.com an indicator that I am weak in chess?
I have played 630 blitz game at chess.com and only 10.3% of my games are draw; see the diagram.
When I play black, my drawing rate is slightly higher than my drawing rate playing white. This is ...
8
votes
3answers
3k views
What is the draw frequency for 3 consecutive games (same players; amateur level)?
In Mr. Robot (TV series) episode "eps2.2_init_1.asec", Elliot and Mr. Robot drew 3 consecutive chess games. They remark it's impossible.
The odds of that are Impossible.
As far as TV shows go, Mr. ...
