Is there any concrete data about the probability than a random person will not end a tournament? (Obviously, the data can be further tallied with regard to age, Elo, rounds, prizes :-) and whatnot...)

(The forfeit probability is surely easier to compute via a megabase, you can add this data too.)

  • 2
    but the megabase only has a subset of real games?
    – cmgchess
    Apr 15, 2023 at 19:55
  • @cmgchess: Frankly, I don't know... (From the documentary standpoint, it would make sense to keep such games, it's not that they take much space :-) Apr 16, 2023 at 9:07
  • If they're a low-tier professional and are out of chances to get a prize in the last round, it's 100%
    – David
    Apr 16, 2023 at 12:05


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