Why would I bid for white in armageddon in chess960?

Question

Related:

Regular chess: Why would I bid for white in armageddon (in regular chess)?

Chess960: Why would I bid for white in armageddon in chess960?

Were there armageddons where white gets lower time or where you can bid for white?

Armageddon: Has anyone actually bid for white in chess (or chess960)?

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Here, armageddon bidding is not for black but for your colour of choice! But black still gets draw odds of course.

Question: Let's say this were chess960 instead. In chess960, since there's no theory, is there actually no advantage in having to play for a win on lower time?

My guess: Yes. Best case scenario you get a good deal on the bid by winning with 9:59. It's essentially playing a regular game of chess960 where black has draw odds. Unless you hit the winning 1/960, you're on your own without any theory playing against someone with draw odds. All you get to do is maybe open a bishop diagonal 1st.

Also say I played 4 games with someone and won the 2 white games and lost the 2 black games. In chess960, I have no idea if my luck with white will continue in the next starting position. I guess it depends on to what I extent I feel that the white games were won 'because I am white' (Re the quote 'When I am White I win because I am White. When I am Black I win because I am Bogoljubow.'). But again even if that's the case, there's no guarantee it will carry over to the next starting position. But if we somehow do the same position for 5 games, then maybe.

Answer 1

Why would I bid for white in Armageddon in chess960?

There is great variability in the engine evaluations for the different starting positions. According to this answer:

the position that gives the biggest advantage to White is RKNQBBNR with a White score of 63.9%

This compares with of a white advantage of about 55% for the normal starting position. This means that there may be positions which some players judge as being too advantageous for white for draw odds plus time deficit to be worth bidding for black.

Similarly, with the relative lack of theory computer analysis becomes very important. If a player thinks they have superior computer analysis for a particular position they may again prefer white despite black's draw odds.

Bottom line: what time to bid and which colour to choose is very dependent on the particular starting position.