From Lichess page 'Chess rating systems':
Which rating system is best?
The purpose of rating systems is to predict the outcome of games. Therefore, they can be objectively better or worse, according to their ability to make such predictions. Glicko 1 makes better predictions than Elo, and Glicko 2 makes better predictions than Glicko 1
My question: Is 'predict the outcome of games' the same thing as 'reduce the number of upsets' ?
Upset here is simply lower rating defeating (or drawing against?) higher rating. Thus, assuming all ratings are integer valued and no 2 players of equal rating play against each other, what I understand is that
'1800 is more likely (or at least as likely) to beat a 1700 if the ratings are glicko 2 as compared to glicko 1'
if and only if
'Glicko 2 makes better predictions than Glicko 1'
Is there anything I misunderstood?