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Is the current position winning or equal , and with the perfect play what would be the resulting position.

[Event "Karpov Poikovsky"]
[Site "Poikovsky RUS"]
[Date "2009"]
[Round "4"]
[White "Efimenko"]
[Black "Rublevsky"]
[Result "*"]
[SetUp "1"]
[FEN "b1r3k1/7q/5BpQ/8/4P3/6PP/2P3BK/8 w - - 0 1"]
2
1

So perfect play is a tricky so allowed the engine to play it out.

Analysis

A review of the position using StockFish 14 indicates that White is winning with a positional advantage of +-1.51. This was discovered at a depth of 40. I ended up running this to a depth of 120 at which point the position was drawn. I went backwards to find the critical position where this occurred and stepped a bit more forward for explanations sake.

[Event "Karpov Poikovsky - Analysis"]
[Site "Poikovsky RUS"]
[Date "2009.06.06"]
[EventDate "2009.06.03"]
[Round "4"]
[Result "1-0"]
[White "Zahar Efimenko"]
[Black "Sergei Vladimirovich Rublevsky"]
[ECO "B45"]
[WhiteElo "2682"]
[BlackElo "2702"]
[SetUp "1"]
[FEN "b1r3k1/7q/5BpQ/8/4P3/6PP/2P3BK/8 w - - 0 1"]
[PlyCount "54"]

1. Qd2 Qf7 2. Bd4 Kf8 3. h4 Kg8 4. Qh6 Qh7 5. Qg5 Qf7 6. h5 Kh7 7. Bh3 Rxc2+ 8. Kg1 Bxe4 9. hxg6+ Bxg6 10. Bg4 Rc4 11. Qh4+ Bh5 12. Bxh5 Rxd4 13. Bxf7+ Rxh4 14. gxh4 Kg7 15. Bd5 Kg6

Conclusion: The position is drawn and with perfect play White has no ability to convert this to a win.

If you look at the above at move 14. it become apparent what the issue is. Black has only a King, but white has a Bishop (Light Squared) , Pawn and King. The pawn is on the H file. White cannot stop the black king retreating to the h8 square where it can force a stalemate or draw by three fold repetition.

Full Game that was actually played

[Event "Karpov Poikovsky"]
[Site "Poikovsky RUS"]
[Date "2009.06.06"]
[EventDate "2009.06.03"]
[Round "4"]
[Result "1-0"]
[White "Zahar Efimenko"]
[Black "Sergei Vladimirovich Rublevsky"]
[ECO "B45"]
[WhiteElo "2682"]
[BlackElo "2702"]
[PlyCount "127"]
[FEN ""]

1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 e6 3. d4 cxd4 4. Nxd4 Nc6 5. Nc3 d6 6. g3 Nf6 7. Bg2 Bd7 8. O-O Be7 9. a4 O-O 10. Nb3 Rc8 11. f4 Na5 12. Nxa5 Qxa5 13. Kh1 Bc6 14. Bd2 Qa6 15. Qe1 b6 16. Qe3 Rfd8 17. Qd3 Qb7 18. b4 Qa8 19. b5 Bb7 20. Qe2 Rc7 21. a5 bxa5 22. Rxa5 Qb8 23. Rfa1 Rdc8 24. Qe3 d5 25. Qxa7 d4 26. Qxd4 Bc5 27. Qa4 Bb6 28. Ra6 Nd7 29. Rxb6 Nxb6 30. Qd4 Rd7 31. Qf2 Qc7 32. Be1 h6 33. h3 Qd8 34. Kh2 Nc4 35. Na4 Rd1 36. Rxd1 Qxd1 37. Nc5 Ba8 38. Bc3 Qd6 39. Bd4 Qb8 40. Qe2 Qxb5 41. Qg4 g6 42. Qh4 Qe8 43. Qxh6 e5 44. fxe5 Nxe5 45. Nd7 Qxd7 46. Bxe5 f6 47. Bxf6 Qh7 48. Qd2 Qf7 49. Bb2 Qe6 50. h4 Qe7 51. Qd3 Re8 52. Qd4 Kh7 53. c4 Rd8 54. Qc3 g5 55. Qa5 gxh4 56. Qf5+ Kg8 57. Bf6 hxg3+ 58. Kh3 Qd7 59. Bxd8 Qxd8 60. c5 Qc7 61. Qg6+ Kf8 62. Qd6+ Qxd6 63. cxd6 Kf7 64. e5 1-0
5
  • 2
    It seems to me that your software played the forcing variation 6.h5?! and 7.Bh3?! because of the resulting material advantage, missing that many KBP vs K endgames are drawn because of the wrong-colored h-pawn queening square - a case of horizon effect. White's advantage seems so huge after the natural,calmer 6.c3 (or 4.c3 at once) that I doubt Black has an effective defense afterwards with best play. The threats h5, Qe5 and Bh3 are frightening at the very least.
    – Evargalo
    Sep 17 at 8:45
  • possibly. was just the stockfish analaysis , which i kept running for a bit (ended up at a depth of 60 something before i stopped it). Sep 17 at 10:28
  • Is possibile passing this problemi to talkchess.com? As far as I know, they have far more powerful machines, capable even to get to depth =75, in some cases even with 7 men tablebases incorporated.
    – Stefano
    Sep 17 at 17:51
  • @Evargalo the problem with 6. c3 or anything too slow is that black can play Re8! Essentially, controlling the e7 square gives black enough to escape with a draw because anytime some piece configuration like the main line at move 10 is reached, black now has the resource Qe7! kicking out the white queen from g5 and completely consolidating (Bf6 Qe3 and again the queen from g5 is kicked). So actually white needs to be timely here after all. Sep 17 at 18:30
  • @Stefano I ran a 7 men tablebase which came as a draw. the issue is you need to get a piece to drop. regarding depth i can run this to 100+ pretty quickly and it comes out as a draw. I just grabbed the moves upto the critical draw position Sep 18 at 3:43

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