# Historical motivation for the 1200-1800ish rating average

Although there is some variation in rating systems (in chess), most systems put the starting value and the mean of all users somewhere around 1500. Some pools are higher, some are lower, but most have their means somewhere in the 1200-1800 range. As ratings only have relative meaning within their respective pools, scaling or translating all ratings within a pool will not make the rating system any less effective for assessing relative strength. So my question is: what is the historical reason that the means are usually in the 1200-1800 range? Which "natural" parameter choices led to these means? And why not e.g. 100, or around 0, with positive and negative ratings?

For newer rating systems that aim to replace older systems, I suppose the mean is just a consequence of trying to mimic the previous system as well as possible. Say Glicko replacing Elo, or Elo replacing whatever was before that. I've tried some digging, but some historical works are behind paywalls and I am unable to find the historical, initial motivation for parameters choices that led to these averages in the 1200-1800 range.

Any pointers to relevant (freely available) literature explaining this choice would be appreciated!

Edit: As pointed out, not all systems start out at 1500, and averages for e.g. USCF or FIDE ratings may not be exactly 1500. My question is specifically why, historically, someone chose approximately 1500 as the average or starting value (and not any other value), and who was the one that made this deliberate choice (rather than making the average be in the 1000-2000 range to mimic other systems). Maybe the initial choice was just "let's put beginner ratings at 1000" and the 1500ish mean followed from that, that's possible too; I'm just wondering what ultimately led to the 1500ish mean of many rating pools.

(If anyone has access to Elo's original book, maybe they could look up what motivated Elo to use something like 1500 as the baseline.)

Edit 2: While the formulas of the Glicko system may somehow incorporate 1500 as a "special" initial choice, observe that the Elo system is the predecessor and clearly does not need 1500 as the baseline. And surely Elo didn't choose 1500 as baseline only because Glicko would later "need" 1500 as the baseline.

So perhaps to make it more clear that I am not looking for tangential discussions about whether the 1500 value for Glicko is necessary, let me ask the closely related question to my original question: why did Elo use initial parameter choices that led to ~1500 as baseline? (That answer might be "because the predecessor to Elo used 1500 as baseline" so digging further may be necessary, but all discussions about Glicko's subsequent choices are irrelevant to this question about the historical motivation of Elo and its predecessors.)

Edit 3: As pointed out in the comments, sources suggest the Elo system was designed to give similar ratings/rating chances as the Harkness system used previously. So to find the answer to this question one has to answer the question: why did the Harkness system have/lead to 1200-1800ish rating averages?

• I might be wrong but, I would challenge the assumption that most systems put the starting value at 1500. lichess does this. Chess.com does not. uscf, fide, do not have a starting value. Commented Feb 16, 2021 at 19:46
• Actually, chess.com allows users to start from 800 to 1800 when the user creates their account. Commented Feb 17, 2021 at 12:20
• chess.stackexchange.com/a/2702/12629 indicates that Elo ratings were designed to give similar ratings to the previous Harkness system. (And, of course, many ratings are the way they are to be similar to Elo ratings.) I don't know whether the book referenced in that answer says how Harkness chose the numbers he did.
– D M
Commented Feb 18, 2021 at 2:36
• Harkness described his system in detail in a series of articles for chess life in 1952. You may find those articles here: uscf1-nyc1.aodhosting.com/CL-AND-CR-ALL/CL-ALL/1952/… @DM. There is no initial default rating, initial ratings of unrated players are calculated after the first tournament is over based on the ratings of the other participants Commented Feb 21, 2021 at 19:36
• @MichaelWest Thank you very much. Unfortunately, in those articles, I was unable to find any mention of why Harkness chose the scale that he did, or of how he calculated the first tournament he rated, where nobody had a prior rating to use.
– D M
Commented Feb 21, 2021 at 21:23

The first chess rating system, the Ingo system used in Germany, had very different numbers because in that system lower is better. So the ratings there have no relevance to the current scale used by modern rating systems.

The second chess rating system, the Harkness system used by USCF starting in 1950, already is calibrated almost the same as modern rating systems. In the original USCF announcement of the rating system it clearly says Class D below 1500, Class C between 1500-1700, Class B 1700-1900, Class A 1900-2100, Expert 2100-2300 and Master 2300-2500. This is the same as current ratings but shifted by 100 points. Acording to Wikipedia, the Harkness system caused ratings to deflate which forced them to both move the rating cutoffs down by 100 points and to switch to Elo. So Elo was originally calibrated to match the ratings of Harkness but adjusted down by 100. Unfortunately I can't find any sources about how Harkness chose his calibration. So unless someone has access to Harkness's private letters or similar sources, it is unlikely that we'll get a definitive answer.

• There may be further details in Harkness's book "Official Chess Handbook" 1967, if anyone has a copy. Commented Mar 22, 2021 at 16:31
• It seems plausible to speculate that Harkness wanted the typical range of ratings to be 1500-2500, because a thousand points is a nice round number and this way it's unlikely that people will have negative ratings. Commented Mar 22, 2021 at 16:39

I found a reference in a 1993 Chess Life article about Arpad Elo to one possible motivation of Harkness. GM Andy Soltis wrote (emphasis mine):

Harkness's system resembled the Ingo, but used four digits and a top rating of about 2600. (Why four digits and not five? Or three? The English and Germans got along well with fewer digits than us. Today a typical British club player gets a rating of about 50 and the best Brits never reach 300. Harkness felt fewer digits would leave too many players with the same rating.)

And the article says this about Elo basing his scale on Harkness's:

Elo decided to keep the Harkness structure, which postulated 2000 as the typical rating of "a strong club player." Later, Elo said it would have made more sense to place that level at 1000 — but that would mean some weak players would approach minus numbers.

• This might be the closest we will get to an answer. So the order of magnitude of the ratings was to guarantee that ratings were unique enough after rounding, and making the average high enough was done so that people didn't get negative ratings. So I guess it's a bit like local end-of-primary-school test scales here, which were between 550 and 650 - "obscure" the scale so people don't get their feelings hurt too much when they are on the low end of the scale.
– TMM
Commented Jun 26, 2021 at 22:53
• I think that was the intent. As it turns out, some very weak players would approach minus numbers anyway, except we don't allow it - FIDE simply won't rate anyone under 1000, and the USCF has an absolute floor of 100.
– D M
Commented Jun 27, 2021 at 12:56

The Glicko and Glicko-2 systems require that new players be given the rating of 1500 as one of the axioms. This is not to mimic existing systems, but simply to ensure the maths works out correctly (since Glicko and Glicko-2 don't just look at absolute rating differences between the players.)

Although the rating gain/loss for both players in a single game is not zero-sum, over a large playerbase and large number of games the mean rating of the entire playerbase will not vary significantly from 1500 (assuming no shenanigans).

The Elo rating system does not impose such a requirement.