# How can I find the endgame probability based on the opening?

I want to find the endgame probabilities based on the openings I play.

This would be a game changer when it comes to prioritizing what endgames to study.

I know Chessbase provides a tool for this, but I don't have Windows or the money to shell out on Chessbase. Is there a free online alternative or an easy way to find the endgame probability of an opening via searching through an online database (e.g. chessgames.com)?

For example, if I want to find the endgame probabilities based on the French Defence, Exchange Variation, a tool might output the following:

Endgame probabilities based on the Exchange Variation

1. `N vs N` = 66 percent
2. `Pawn Ending` = 13 percent
3. `Q vs Q` = 8 percent
4. `R+P vs R` = 5 percent
5. `R vs R` = 4 percent
6. `R vs N` = 3 percent
7. `RN vs RB` = 1 percent

Learn CQL (http://www.gadycosteff.com/cql/), then write a program to automate the process

• I second this. Great chess database language and developers are very helpful. Jun 14, 2020 at 3:12
• It may be worth mentioning that CQL stands for Chess Query Language; it's chess-specific and not just some random programming language.
– D M
Jun 14, 2020 at 3:28

You can do something like this in SCID, which is a free program. It takes a little effort, but it's not too bad.

First, load the desired database. Then use a filter to select only games from the opening of your choice. You can filter either by a position, or by ECO code, to get the desired opening. Note how many games meet the filter criteria.

Next, use the "Search for material or board patterns" filter feature. You can use the "Common Endgames" button on that screen, or you can select your own criteria. Make sure to select the "AND (Restrict filter)" option. Hit the Search button, and the filter will be restricted to only games which meet your selected criteria. Note how many there are, and with some basic math you can calculate what percentage this is.

Repeat this for all desired endgames.

You can also use the Opening Report feature to get some quick endgame probabilities. Put the desired position on the chessboard, and then run the Opening Report from the Tools menu. This does, however, include all games in the database with that opening, regardless of whether they really have an "endgame" or not. It will count a Scholar's Mate as a "Q, R, BN" endgame since those pieces are all on the board.

• Nice. I've used Scid for awhile time and never thought of using it like that. Jun 14, 2020 at 10:59
• More fast is the "Opening Report". It informs some charasteristics that are of importance for the ending, like opposite castling. Jul 14, 2020 at 4:46
• @djnavas The opening report does have some interesting stats, and is a quick way to filter based on position, but the "themes" are only counted in those stats if they happen in the first 20 moves, which seemed overly restricted.
– D M
Jul 14, 2020 at 9:10
• @D_M Let me copy about finales, what an opening report informs: 4.4 Finales `Tipos de finales según la última posición de las partidas:` `P BN R R,BN Q Q,BN Q,R Q,R,BN` `Informe de partidas 1% 8% 6% 21% 1% 4% 2% 56%` `Todas las partidas 1% 7% 7% 26% 1% 3% 4% 51%` Jul 15, 2020 at 10:54
• @djnavas You are correct. I'll edit this to add that it can be done with the Opening Report.
– D M
Mar 5, 2021 at 0:15