I am wondering if there are any statistics on rejected draw offers (say of GM games). Namely, what are the following percentages of the following results when a draw offer is declined:
- The side that offered the draw offer wins.
- The side that declined the draw offer wins.
- The game ended as a draw.
Technically there is a fourth result: the game has not ended yet at this moment. We may ignore this case for simplicity. For game with multiple draw offers, we may only consider the first draw offer.
By the way, this statistics may be useful in determining whether it is wiser to accept most draw offers or not. If the side that offers the draw wins more than the side that declines the draw offer, it might be wiser to accept a draw offer in an even game. (Here I am assuming that almost all GM's will not offer a draw if he/she has a clear disadvantage.)