2

I'm looking for detailed statistics exhibiting draw rate for elite players. I did find this and this publications, however, they only contain aggregated data for 2600+ players, and arrive at a figure of about 55% for equal 2600+ players.

This strikes me as completely inadequate estimate as far as elite players are concerend. I checked randomly some pairs of top players on chessgames.com, and the draw rate is usually more like 70% to 80% (well, for Carlsen-Ding Liren it's currently 100% with the sample of 9 games). This is consistent with the data that I got by checking some random elite tournaments - they have anywhere between 20% and 40% decisive games, most of them usually between players with larger rating difference. This is also consistent with betting odds - they indicate the probabilities of draw between 75% and 83% for the ongoing Altibox Norway chess tournament.

Is there a detailed statistics on how a draw rate varies with (a) rating difference and (b) average rating of the two players involved, similar to one linked above but with a detailed breakdown in the range of 2600-2800? Ideally with color breakdown, so that one can extract data such as "if a 2720 player plays white against an 2770 player, then the probability of draw is such and such"...

  • 6
    Why not ask your favorite chess database program? – Qudit Jun 13 '19 at 23:38
  • 4
    @Kostya_I You can do this entirely with free data and software. Recent high level games are available through Kingbase and TWIC. Both can be downloaded for free. You can use an open source program like SCID to crunch the data with needing to buy chessbase. – Qudit Jun 14 '19 at 9:24
  • 2
    @RewanDemontay Thanks. The reason I didn't post it as an answer is because the OP asked for statistics rather than how to generate such statistics so I felt that it wouldn't answer the question. Maybe I will reconsider though. – Qudit Jun 26 '19 at 5:24
  • 1
    @confused00, thanks. I am pretty confident, though, that these numbers do include rapid and blitz games. There's no way 45% of games in classical chess are decisive. – Kostya_I Aug 6 '19 at 7:47
  • 1
    There is NO answer. It depends on the situation too much. Sometimes the event is conducive to draws sometimes the format and players encourage more wins. It will vary with time as players improve. And as they get old and play less good. What you call elite is arbitrary. Players will enter and leave that group. – yobamamama Dec 26 '19 at 0:08
1

For over 2700 rated players, statistically the draw rate is slightly under 50%.

For all over 2200 , the rate is just under 40%, statistically.

| improve this answer | |
  • I would like to see the sources as well. Frankly, your numbers look unreliable; I've never seen a tournament between 2700 players with draw rate that low. For example, in the current Tata steel challengers at the moment the draw rate is 60% from 70 games, even though players there are in 2500s and 2600s. – Kostya_I Jan 24 at 11:54
  • Data from sites like chess tempo that show W L D % by opening moves and by player levels. – edwina oliver Jan 24 at 15:11

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service, privacy policy and cookie policy

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.