I've tried finding statistics on the results of competitive armageddon games played at a high level (say, GM level), but to no avail. Evidently, these statistics must exist, as for example FIDE changed the time controls in the official rules from 6 minutes-5 minutes to 5 minutes-4 minutes in preparation for the Carlsen-Karjakin WC match (thus indicating that they felt that 6-5 gave black too much of an advantage compared to 5-4).

Basically, does white really have a ~50% win rate in GM-level armageddon chess games?

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    I am also not able to find any statistics online, but it seems apparent that black has a massive advantage especially at high level games where draws are fairly common. Personally I feel like there needs to be a massive time difference, like 5 minutes to 2.5 minutes for white to have a 50% chance of winning. If you even look at the quality of games of GMs at full time control and rapid, they are almost the same. Time is just not nearly as important when GMs have memorized almost everything. – Matthew Liu Nov 8 at 22:47
  • Welcome to the site, great first question! – Glorfindel Nov 9 at 8:41

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