Some commentators have expressed surprise at the two relatively bland draws to open out the most recent (Carlsen-Karjakin) World Championships. I'm wondering whether there's been any study as to whether 'feeling-out' is a real phenomenon: are draws more likely to happen at the start of a championship match, in the middle, or towards the end? Has any objective research (whether specifically WCC or any high-level chess match play) been done on this?
I am not aware of a study of this kind, but why not make our own? Let us parse some WCC PGNs!
To me, this does not seem to have any definite regularities for when a draw is more likely (also note, that at the very high number of rounds, only a few games are available - there have been only a few very long WCC matches).
Recent events only. Looks like more draws overall and slight tendency for more draws towards the end of a match.