Houdini Chess engine is said to have a calibrated evaluation in which engine scores correlate directly with the win expectancy in the position. A +1.00 pawn advantage gives a 80% chance of winning the game against an equal opponent at blitz time control. At +2.00 the engine will win 95% of the time, and at +3.00 about 99% of the time. If the advantage is +0.50, expect to win nearly 50% of the time.

Looked around the net but couldn't find a table? Ideally I'd like to see material difference calculator where I would plug in "1 pawn and 1 knight" down.. what is my win/loss expectancy.


2 Answers 2


There is no such calculator, that's why you couldn't find any.

About Houdini: It's not a fact. They are saying roughly, Houdini evaluation is correlated with win expectancy against the same engine same hardware, in blitz time control. It doesn't have to be the same for other engines, and it's not the same for humans of course.


I believe that 1 pawn is equivalent to 100 ELO points. So if you are playing a 2000 rated player, and you are rated 1500 rook odds makes the game even.

  • 1
    I find it hard to believe that I would have good chances playing a 1500 player without a rook. I might feel better against a 1000 player.
    – dfan
    Mar 29, 2016 at 0:59
  • 1
    What is your justification?
    – ferit
    Mar 29, 2016 at 15:47

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