Timeline for Is there a way to figure out what the average number of moves would be if all games were played to completion?
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| May 24, 2022 at 21:41 | comment | added | Mobeus Zoom | @user2180 Agreed. My only point is that the error bars are likely to be very large, because the same positions we are trying to make predictions about here are the very positions we don't have data about because resignation has occurred before them by definition. If the rules were changed as you suggest, we could start collecting that data and I guess considerably shorten the error bars quite quickly. | |
| May 24, 2022 at 21:27 | comment | added | user21820 | @MobeusZoom: True, but we have to make simplifying assumptions if we want to get anything at all. Suppose that we want to know what happens if the world chess federation changes the rules to forbid resignation, just before a tournament. Then how would P1,P2 play in that tournament? Suppose that this does not affect their play up to the point where P1 would want to resign in the original world. Suppose further that the stakes are high, so P1 won't just concede defeat by making a silly move. Then our best estimate is to categorize each subsequent position so as to guess how P1,P2 would play. | |
| May 24, 2022 at 21:08 | comment | added | Mobeus Zoom | This is a good answer with a bunch of interesting stuff regarding mimicking human play, but in this one particular case it's probably not sufficient, because we simply don't have data regarding how P1,P2 will play past resignation point, as they don't tend to play these positions (that's the rub: they've resigned by then!). | |
| May 24, 2022 at 10:09 | history | answered | user21820 | CC BY-SA 4.0 |