Questions about game statistics, e.g. the winning percentage of a "line," the probability of some event occurring in a game, or player statistics.

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2
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1answer
111 views

Statistical Right Handedness Bias in Move Selection?

It seems clear to me that there must be a statistical bias in the move selection of master level games in relation to the natural "hand" of the move, right or left. Let me explain. For the sake of ...
1
vote
1answer
189 views

If the Sicilian is so strong, why do people still play e4 in competitions?

1.d4 is a statistically more successful opening for white due to the high success rate of the Sicilian defence against 1.e4 I understand it's fun to play different openings, but at the highest level,...
0
votes
2answers
41 views

chess win expectancy by material difference table or calculator

Houdini Chess engine is said to have a calibrated evaluation in which engine scores correlate directly with the win expectancy in the position. A +1.00 pawn advantage gives a 80% chance of winning the ...
1
vote
1answer
84 views

Live viewers for top chess events

What is the average number of live viewers (online and TV) for top chess events like the world championship match and the candidates tournament? Are there some statistics publicly available?
1
vote
1answer
88 views

How to see average game length for specific chess opening (number of moves)?

How to see average game lenght for specific chess opening? Is there some chess database which allow me to see specific opening game length? For example: Sicilian defense (average length is: 80.5) ...
1
vote
2answers
47 views

Meaning of move stats in opening databases

I naively thought that if I picked the biggest winning move (for example using white) in the database and kept picking moves that white would always win, but at some point the advantage for white ...
10
votes
1answer
204 views

What features can I add to this FIDE chess application? (edits made 2/25)

EDIT: Most of the app is completed. Now all I have to complete is implementation of FIDE arbiters, a dynamic 3d plot (right now it only has 3 variables being plotted, no inputs affect it), adding more ...
1
vote
4answers
297 views

Statistically, what is the best opening?

Statistically, what opening has white won with the most? Such as, 1.e4 e5 2? What is the move that white makes that has won the most games?
-1
votes
1answer
137 views

What's the average piece density?

In a position, the piece density is equal to the total number of pieces on the board (Whites pieces + Black pieces) divided by the total number of squares (64). At the beginning of every game, the ...
2
votes
2answers
171 views

What is the percentage of players who are women in the sections where both men and women can play in?

I am NOT asking for the percentage of chess players that are women. I am asking for the percentage of players who are women in the sections where both men and women can play in. That percentage is ...
3
votes
3answers
146 views

What is the probability that a position has been played before?

When reading annotated games from GMs, I sometimes find annotations such as "This was tried by XXX in 1975 vs YYY". Such annotations are sometimes found very deeply in the game, sometimes past move 20....
4
votes
2answers
193 views

What is the average length of a game of chess with only random moves?

The famous Shannon number, 10^120, an estimated lower bound on the number of possible chess games, is based on the assumption that a typical game lasts 40 moves. In games between skilled human ...
3
votes
2answers
114 views

What is the percent of players in the top X that are women for different values of X?

I have already found some numbers thanks to this website: http://www.ferimex.com/icc/frl.php?list=0&country=0&title=0&sex=0&year=0&old=0&cat=0&size=9&update=yes Top ...
3
votes
4answers
287 views

Rating rise: luck or actual increase in playing strength?

The FIDE rating of very active chess players can vary a lot: rating fluctuations of 50 rating points are not unusual. Is there a way to distinguish whether a rating rise/drop can be explained by ...
7
votes
1answer
684 views

What is the average age to become a grandmaster?

On average, what is the age of people when they obtain the title of international master or grandmaster? I also wonder how the age distribution looks like.
5
votes
6answers
625 views

Bishop vs Knight

I read in a book write by Fischer about piece values, and he said that a knight value 3 pawns, and a bishop values 3,25 pawns. I know that in the close positions knights are better, and I also read in ...
2
votes
3answers
284 views

What are the winning chances of every pieces? (6men egtb)

Is there a site or document which shows what the winning chances are of every "Specific Pieces vs. Specific Pieces" endgame? e.g. What are the winning chances of Rook & Bishop vs 2 Knights?
6
votes
2answers
220 views

Top player with the lowest drawing rate

Which player of the top 50 has the lowest drawing rate ? Who is it in the top 100 ? And which woman in the top 50 has the lowest drawing rate ?
10
votes
8answers
16k views

Is the number of possible chess games infinite?

This question is somewhat related to Can the total number of possible wins/draws/losses be calculated?, but slightly different. There is a recent TV show episode that claims that there are "more ...
6
votes
3answers
384 views

In an opening tree on ChessBase, how can we fix the statistics so that transpositions are not taken into account in the total number of games?

In an opening tree (also called "opening explorer" or "openings book") on ChessBase 12, here are the statistics that we get after 1. Nf3 c5 : So it seems that after 1. Nf3 c5 White will play 2. e4 ...
0
votes
1answer
333 views

Is there a list of unsound openings?

Not so long ago I was looking for a comprehensive list of openings (and received an excellent answer with a huge list). Hearing a lot about unsound openings, I am curious whether I can have a ...
5
votes
3answers
323 views

Chess Statistics How to?

I am a graduate student studying statistics and I play chess once in a while for fun. I was thinking (just for the fun of it) -- applying some of what I've learned in statistics to chess games: I ...
3
votes
3answers
669 views

Which side has the advantage in an Armageddon tiebreak game?

It is generally considered that white has better chances of winning in chess. This is due to white's initiative, since white gets to move first. The difference in chances seems to get more significant,...
5
votes
4answers
170 views

What are some common statistical analyses we can run on many games (~20k games)?

I have a list of around 20k games played on a popular online website. I would like to run some statistical analyses on these games. I'm not talking about analysing specific games, but rather finding ...
3
votes
6answers
551 views

Does black really have a disadvantage?

Most people say chess is a draw, and it is quite believable, white is but a tempo up, and skill plays a lot of part in the game. But even the most skillful agree that blunders are made, in some games ...
2
votes
5answers
541 views

Average number of moves per game

What are the average number of moves per game with regards to what opening has been played?
3
votes
1answer
252 views

How many positions are there in n-pieces endgame tablebases for different values of n? [duplicate]

Note that I don't want the exact values, I only need approximations. And I am only interested in small values of n (not more than 12).
2
votes
1answer
125 views

Chess Olympiad statistcs

I have watched some matches played in the chess Olympiad in Tromsø. The majority of the games I watched, one player played english opening, and usually he won, I haven't seen any french opening game. ...
8
votes
5answers
302 views

Which piece is least likely to be taken?

If one were to analyse a large number of chess games, which specific piece (not type of piece) would be found to be taken the least number of times? And yes, in light of SomePatzer's comment, besides ...
2
votes
1answer
76 views

Could you explain me this part of GM Larry Kaufman's article on “The Evaluation of Material Imbalances”?

This is a stupid question that has more to do with English than with chess, so if other people also think it's stupid I can delete it after I get the answer. Since English is not my mother's tongue I ...
8
votes
2answers
395 views

Does GM Larry Kaufman's “principle of the redundancy of major pieces” truly exists? Or could this effect be caused by the number of Pawns instead?

The following is an extract from The Evaluation of Material Imbalances by GM Larry Kaufman. I put in bold characters everything that was important for this question. https://www.chess.com/article/...
0
votes
2answers
615 views

For long OTB games, what is the percentage of players who have a rating which is below X FIDE Elo?

I am looking for statistics on the FIDE Elo of chess players. I would like to know what is the percentage of players who have a rating which is: Below 1000 Elo Below 800 Elo Below 600 Elo Below 400 ...
3
votes
2answers
278 views

Three questions on GM Larry Kaufman's article about the average relative value of the chess pieces

I have three questions related to this article written by GM Larry Kaufman: http://home.comcast.net/~danheisman/Articles/evaluation_of_material_imbalance.htm . Question n°1: Kaufman rounded all his ...
2
votes
3answers
406 views

What's the difference between a tempo and a tempi? At the start, how many tempo/tempi is White up? On average, how many tempo/tempi is one Pawn worth?

What's the difference between a tempo and a tempi? At the start, how many tempo/tempi is White up? Half, one, or two? At the start of the game (before White has even made his first move), how many ...
3
votes
2answers
847 views

Between 1.d4 and 1.Nf3, what is the White first move that generally leads to the most solid, positional, slow, closed, strategic and quiet positions?

I'm a ~1750 Elo player and I've been thinking of switching my opening repertoire for White. So my question is: between 1.d4 and 1.Nf3, what is the White first move that generally leads to the most ...
8
votes
1answer
690 views

1. e4, 1. d4, 1. c4, or 1. Nf3? Which opening move has given the greatest scoring percentage for White in World Championship Matches?

Which opening move out of 1. e4, 1. d4, 1. c4 and 1.Nf3 has given the best scoring percentage for White in World Championship matches? What are the percentages?
5
votes
3answers
282 views

Are world-class correspondence games more likely to be drawn that world class OTB games?

A games of chess with perfect play from both sides may be a draw. And while we don't have any perfect chess players it does seem that a match between two equally strong grandmasters is more likely to ...
4
votes
1answer
367 views

Can the total number of possible wins/draws/losses be calculated?

http://s13.postimg.org/miyhhh113/chess_finite_graph.png I'm trying to imagine the finite graph of all positions in chess. Due to the sheer number of possible positions, it is impossible with current ...
2
votes
5answers
698 views

Are modern chess programs tactically perfect?

In a given situation, can we assume that a chess engine is tactically perfect - meaning that it can find all possible tactics which are there in that position. Is it possible for the best of modern ...
5
votes
2answers
689 views

20th Century Grand Master who had the highest draw percentage in his career?

Title says it all. For my own part; I am looking to learn and adopt a play style which does not necessarily win, but is typified as being incredibly difficult to actually win against.
3
votes
5answers
710 views

What are the first moves chosen (White), by brute force chess engines?

Title says it all. Feel free to add comment, theory, or explanation. Just to clarify, this is only regarding turn 1 of White, and no proceeding turns after it.
4
votes
2answers
171 views

Is there a standardized chess test that can measure one's chess playing condition?

Chess players often say that in a given tournament they were "in good shape", or the opposite. One tournament goes well, another goes horribly wrong. One can also sometimes feel that your head is ...
5
votes
2answers
221 views

What is the approximate number of unique positions added by each practical game of chess

The average number of moves in a game of chess is about 40. This would be an average of about 80 positions in each game, but many positions are shared between games. More sharing occurs at the ...
4
votes
5answers
1k views

How well does Elo rating estimate a player's strength?

Edit (3 March 2014): Proposal: strength is the real and rating is the model that estimates it. Question: How well does Elo rating estimate a player's strength? Bonus question: What happens if you ...
2
votes
2answers
288 views

How can I find the gained points per game?

In another post it was written that for games played during the 2013 World Championship match, Carlsen gained 3.7 points if he wins, Anand gained 6.3 points if he wins, and that in a draw Carlsen lost ...
5
votes
4answers
334 views

Are there any very lopsided scores in openings at lower levels?

I was reading this question: How to know how good an opening defense scores, and it got me wondering...Have there been very lopsided opening scores in the lower levels. For example, if we found out ...
4
votes
4answers
1k views

How popular is chess?

There's a survey on chess.com, Do your friends play chess?, and the results aren't very encouraging. Personally, very few of my friends play chess. Then I read this question: What's the most ...
5
votes
1answer
3k views

Minimum moves to checkmate?

What is the minimum number of moves, counting both sides, in which a checkmate can be made?
18
votes
3answers
13k views

What is the average length of a game of chess?

I hope this is an appropriate question for this site as it's something I've been curious about (and wanting a reputable answer). Of course this can vary wildly between games, but what is the expected ...
9
votes
5answers
2k views

Computer evaluations: How trustworthy are they?

Fritz 12 with Rybka gave a friend of mine an evaluation of +3 for white in this endgame position, which turned out to be a draw. But I've heard that +3 from a computer means a guaranteed win with ...