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Black here has 3 weak pawns; if any one of them falls - he will very likely lose the game as well. If he lets White king break through via c4-c5(d5) - White will also likely win. c5 pawn is a passed pawn, but is not going anywhere. Evaluations like "White is better" are not precise enough - is it possible via analysis to prove that White definitely wins? Or that Black definitely holds? Variations or plans for both sides are welcome. White to move: |
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This resembles another position referred to as the "Iron Duke." Based on my knowledge of the other position, I'd say that Black can draw. The reason is that all the potential entry points (on the fourth rank) for the white king are either occupied or "covered" by Black. There is a (blocked) White pawn on a4, b4 and d4 are covered by the Black pawn on c5, c4 is covered by the Black bishop, e4 and g4 are covered by Black pawns, and f4 and h4 have (blocked) White pawns. The Black bishop can continue to cover c4 while moving along the diagonal to protect whatever pawn White's bishop attacks (except for the one on a6, which the king can protect). If White tries for an exchange of Bishops on c4, the Black K "toggles" between c6 and d6, and the White king still can't break through. Black can lose by moving his c pawn or wrongly moving his bishop. But as the position now stands, White can't force a win. Neither can Black for that matter. If he moves his (passed) c pawn, he has losing chances. |
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